Readings from the other desks

The regional baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

15 min read0 figures8 tables37 notesNR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of African risk: drought and flood act on water, energy and food together. Evidence is strongest for population, access and emissions, and weakest for losses, cross-border flows and the condition of nature.

CLI-001 · CLI-002 · WAT-009 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a failed harvest, a flood or an outage. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how shared rivers and shared power systems make one place’s event another place’s problem.

CLI-002 · FOO-004 · ENE-006

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound, and debt ratios differ widely across the members²⁴. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

CLI-002 · SYS-012

NEXUS

Synthesis

Africa’s statistical record is thin where it matters most for risk. The 2027 programme should bind loss, reserve and cross-border flow data, test the failed-rains pathway and measure the condition of nature.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Africa. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Africa regional pathway	regional pathway: hubs named in the registry	regional Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Floods and droughts do not stop at a frontier. The baseline treats the shared basin and the shared power system as units of analysis, with member countries as the places where the effects land.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Risk crosses the border first

The African Union has its own edition in the series. This edition reads Africa through three member countries named in the registry and does not join the union to the region on a code alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

A union is not a region

South Africa’s move from load shedding to long stable periods shows that supply security depends on plant condition and recovery work, not on installed capacity alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Reliability is a design question

Several data that matter most for risk, including losses by member, cross-border flows and cereal output after 2023, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Gaps are findings too

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 regional readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Regional risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five regional system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	editions in programme as listed in the series registry	regional and sector baselines
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Climate Change Act 22 of 2024, South Africa⁴³	South African Parliament	ZAF	IN FORCE	climate law
Climate Change Act 2016, Kenya⁴⁴	Kenyan Parliament	KEN	IN FORCE	climate law
Agenda 2063, continental framework³³	African Union	AU	ADOPTED 2013	continental frame
Sendai Framework 2015–2030⁴⁷	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction
Senegal River basin organisation framework³⁰	member states	basin	IN OPERATION	shared river

Changed since 2024

South Africa signed its Climate Change Act in 2024⁴³
Greater Tortue Ahmeyim reached first gas in December 2024³¹
Eskom reported long periods without load shedding in 2025 and 2026²⁹

To watch in 2027

Regulations under the South African Climate Change Act⁴³
Further phases of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project³¹⁴¹
Updated national climate commitments of the three members

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Africa’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Pörtner et al. (eds.), IPCC AR6 Working Group II⁴⁵	assessment	2022	context	Africa impacts
Zscheischler et al.⁴⁶	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Sendai Framework⁴⁷	framework	2015	framework	disaster risk reduction
State of the Climate in Africa 2024¹	WMO	2025	supports	forcing
Agenda 2063³³	framework	2013	context	continental frame

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
State of the Climate in Africa 2024¹	WMO	2025	supports	floods, drought
State of Food Security and Nutrition 2025²	FAO and partners	2025	supports	hunger
Water and Africa’s basins³²	press republication of an environment assessment	2024	context	shared basins
Eskom statements²⁸²⁹	utility	2025–2026	supports	power reliability
Cholera fact sheet²⁶	WHO	2025	context	disease

Table 6.7Official statistics and regional sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Population and economy³⁵	World Bank	2024	supports	profile
Access and use of electricity⁴²⁰	World Bank	2023	supports	power
Emissions⁶	World Bank	2023	supports	climate
Water and sanitation⁷¹¹²¹	World Bank	2022–2024	supports	water
Health and demography¹³¹⁶¹⁷	World Bank	2023–2024	supports	health

Table 6.8Industry, grid and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Macro series²³²⁴²⁵⁴⁸	IMF and AfDB	2025	context	growth, debt, prices
Renewable capacity statistics³⁷	IRENA	2026	context	capacity
Africa Energy Outlook⁴²	IEA	2022	context	energy
National population releases³⁴³⁵	statistics offices	2025	context	profile
Greater Tortue Ahmeyim³¹⁴¹	project records	2025	context	gas

Where the evidence agrees

Africa has warmed over the past decade, and drought and flood records are rising¹
Hunger remains above 20% of the African population²
Many river basins are shared and few have cooperation arrangements at the scale of the basin³²

Where it is unsettled

How many people in Africa lack electricity, which differs by issuer and edition³⁶⁴⁹
How much of the member hunger series reflects revision, which is large for some members¹⁰
How fast new plant and storage can restore reserve margins²⁹

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

24International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kosmos Energy and bp (eds.), Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project records (commercial operations 2025; second phase not yet decided, from press summaries). Kosmos Energy, Dallas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using at least basic drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa 90.2, Kenya 65.6, Senegal 88.0, group 67.5), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using safely managed sanitation services, % of population (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), South Africa (73.8), Kenya (35.8), Senegal (30.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.9), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Mortality rate, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), South Africa (6.7), Kenya (3.0), Senegal (3.6) and Sub-Saharan Africa (3.2), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, real GDP growth (NGDP_RPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, inflation, average consumer prices (PCPIPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Development Bank (ed.), African Economic Outlook 2025 (context only; no figure used). AfDB, Abidjan. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (Africa added 11.3 GW in 2025, from press summaries; the page returned an access error). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du Sénégal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
49UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (sub-Saharan Africa about 563 million without electricity, from search summaries). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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