Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Africa, as the series reads it, is three member countries (South Africa, Kenya and Senegal) that sit inside a continent of shared river basins, power systems and food markets, beside a continental union with its own subject in the series. The World Bank counted 1.29 billion people in sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, of whom 64.0 million lived in South Africa, 56.4 million in Kenya and 18.5 million in Senegal3. Electricity reached 87.7% of South Africans, 76.2% of Kenyans and 74.2% of Senegalese in 2023, against 53.3% across sub-Saharan Africa4. Annual electricity use per person in 2022 was about 3,405 kWh in South Africa, 189 kWh in Kenya and 400 kWh in Senegal20. The WMO reports that floods in East Africa affected more than 700,000 people in 2024 and that southern African cereal yields fell 16% below the five-year average in the same drought year1. The FAO-led hunger report put 307 million Africans in hunger in 2024, more than 20% of the population2. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a regional dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and ranks no member country.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Africa baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. South Africa emitted 427.3 Mt of carbon dioxide in 2023, Kenya 21.3 Mt and Senegal 13.7 Mt, excluding land use.6

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. Electricity reached 74.2% to 87.7% of people in the members in 2023, against 53.3% in sub-Saharan Africa.4

    What do people have access to?Reported

  3. South Africa has had no load shedding since 16 May 2025. Continental reliability series are not bound.2829

    How reliable is the grid?Reported

  4. Southern African cereal yields fell 16% below average in 2024; 307 million Africans were in hunger.12

    How exposed are crops and food?Reported

  5. East African floods affected more than 700,000 people in 2024; the Eastern Cape floods caused at least 90 deaths by 15 June 2025.127

    How severe were recent floods?Reported

  6. South Africa withdrew 47.1% of its internal freshwater resources in 2022.11

    How much water is withdrawn?Reported

  7. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound in this edition.27

    Who carries flood losses?Not bound

  8. A failed rainy season coinciding with a power shortfall and a food price rise across member borders. SCN-AFR-RAIN-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

Floods in East Africa in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million.

Figure S.1People affected by floods in Africa, 2024 (million, at least)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
West and Central Africa4
East Africa0.7

Source: WMO State of the Climate in Africa 20241. East Africa covers Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi. The Kenya share is not separated in the page opened.

A flood season is a regional event. The same rains reach three East African states at once, and the Kenya figure cannot be read apart from its neighbours. Flood response, roads, power and cholera control therefore need to be read across borders1.

S.4At a glance

64.0million

South Africa population, 20243

56.4million

Kenya population, 20243

18.5million

Senegal population, 20243

1.29billion

sub-Saharan Africa population, 20243

401USD billion

South Africa GDP at current prices, 20245

3members

South Africa, Kenya, Senegal

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of African risk: drought and flood act on water, energy and food together.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a failed harvest, a flood or an outage.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound, and debt ratios differ widely across the members.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Africa’s statistical record is thin where it matters most for risk.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Africa’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026 read across South Africa, Senegal, Kenya. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a regional risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and each member’s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for the European Union, which is a separate subject in the series.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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