Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Food
    4. 2.4 Energy
    5. 2.5 Water
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

Floods in East Africa in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million.

Figure 2.1People affected by floods in Africa, 2024 (million, at least)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
West and Central Africa4
East Africa0.7

Source: WMO State of the Climate in Africa 20241. East Africa covers Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi. The Kenya share is not separated in the page opened.

Implication

A flood season is a regional event. The same rains reach three East African states at once, and the Kenya figure cannot be read apart from its neighbours. Flood response, roads, power and cholera control therefore need to be read across borders1.

What would move it

Seasonal rainfall outlooks, river-flow forecasts, flood-warning exchange between states and the national loss series would each move this finding. Kenya flood deaths and displacement from the situation report are not bound39.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Average surface temperature in Africa in 2024 was about 0.86 °C above the 1991 to 2020 average, and the past decade was the warmest on record; North Africa, outside the member set, was 1.28 °C above.1

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Floods in East Africa in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million.1

2.3Food

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-003

    Southern African cereal yields in 2024 were 16% below the five-year average in an extreme drought, with Zambia 43% below and Zimbabwe 50% below.1

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-004

    The FAO-led report counted 307 million Africans in hunger in 2024, above 20% of the population; in 2023 the World Bank series carried 36.4% for Kenya, 10.5% for South Africa and 5.6% for Senegal.210

2.4Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

    In 2023 electricity reached 87.7% of South Africans, 76.2% of Kenyans and 74.2% of Senegalese, against 53.3% in sub-Saharan Africa.4

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

    South Africa recorded no load shedding from 16 May 2025; Eskom reported 105 consecutive days by 29 August 2025 and 490 days by 20 September 2026, with year-to-date energy availability of 67.96%.2829

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

    Electricity use per person in 2022 was about 3,405 kWh in South Africa, 189 kWh in Kenya and 400 kWh in Senegal, and South Africa emitted 427.3 Mt of carbon dioxide in 2023, about 49% of the sub-Saharan Africa total of 871.0 Mt.620

2.5Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

    Africa has 63 transboundary river basins covering about 62% of its land area and holding about 90% of its surface water; the Senegal River organisation operates 400 MW of hydropower across four states.3032

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

    South Africa withdrew 47.1% of its internal freshwater resources in 2022, against 19.5% in Kenya, 11.9% in Senegal and 3.4% in sub-Saharan Africa.11

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

    Under-five mortality in 2023 was 34.8 per 1,000 in South Africa, 38.2 in Senegal and 39.6 in Kenya, against 73.2 in sub-Saharan Africa; life expectancy at birth ranged from 63.6 to 68.7 years across the members.1317

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Terrestrial protected areas covered 26.3% of Senegal, 14.0% of Kenya and 9.5% of South Africa in 2024, against 17.0% in sub-Saharan Africa.12

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season that coincides with a power shortfall and a food price rise across member borders. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Mortality rate, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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