Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Money meets risk
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A loss year that meets tight public budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 44 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.144 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  6. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  7. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  8. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  9. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10IMF (ed.), Lending, 2026 IMF Annual Report (five RSF requests agreed in the year to 30 April 2026, about SDR 1.8 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11FEMA (ed.), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (programme page updated 3 September 2026; fiscal years 2024 and 2025 funding opportunity of USD 1 billion published 25 March 2026; applications closed 23 July 2026). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  12. 12GAO (ed.), High-Risk List 2025 (38 areas; includes limiting the federal fiscal exposure by better managing climate change risks). US Government Accountability Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13National Wealth Fund (ed.), About us (capital commitment GBP 27.8 billion; mission to drive more than GBP 100 billion of finance; GBP 3 mobilised per GBP 1 invested over the long term). National Wealth Fund, Leeds. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
  14. 14HM Treasury and NISTA (eds.), UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy (publication page; published 19 June 2025; no funding total on the page). UK Government, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  15. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Cabinet Secretariat of Japan (ed.), Fundamental Plan for National Resilience (English page; the plan is reviewed about every five years; no five-year amount on the page read). Cabinet Secretariat, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18Scroll (ed.), Budget 2026-27 proposes capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore (report of 1 February 2026; 8.9% above the Rs 11.2 lakh crore budgeted for 2025-26; revised estimate Rs 10.9 lakh crore). Scroll.in, Mumbai. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary
  19. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20European Parliament (ed.), European Competitiveness Fund, legislative observatory summary (proposed envelope EUR 234.3 billion for 2028 to 2034; multiannual financial framework described as a EUR 2 trillion budget). European Parliament, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  21. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ESG Today (ed.), EIB unveils EUR 30 billion climate adaptation plan (trade report of 22 October 2026; at least EUR 30 billion for adaptation in 2026 to 2030). ESG Today, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Post-close, context only: dated after the 30 September 2026 close; supports no baseline claim. Cited in chapter 6
  22. 22World Resources Institute (ed.), 4 things to know about the global adaptation challenge (commentary of 10 September 2019 on the Global Commission on Adaptation; USD 1.8 trillion invested 2020 to 2030 could yield USD 7.1 trillion net benefits; benefit-cost ratios about 2 to 1 to 10 to 1). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors; no figure used in the findings. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity, cited from memory; no figure used. World Bank and GFDRR, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025, taken from a trade report and search-result summaries; the sigma page returned an access error. Swiss Re Institute, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Commission on Adaptation, Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience, 2019, known through a commentary that was opened [22]. Global Center on Adaptation, Rotterdam. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Shield against Climate Risks, funding and payout reports, taken from search-result summaries; no figure used in the copy. Global Shield secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Parliament, written statement HCWS717 on the 10 Year Infrastructure Strategy, June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error; no figure used. UK Parliament, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: German Federal Ministry of Finance, Special fund infrastructure and climate neutrality (EUR 500 billion total, from a search summary); the page returned a service error. Bundesministerium der Finanzen, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian National Audit Office, Award of funding under the Disaster Ready Fund, audit report, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned a service error. Australian National Audit Office, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade-press reports of the European Competitiveness Fund envelope (figures between EUR 409 billion and EUR 451 billion), taken from search-result summaries; the figures conflict with the Parliament summary [20]. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Paris Agreement, 2015, Article 2.1(c) on finance flows consistent with low-emission and climate-resilient development, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty, taken from search-result summaries (needs USD 310 to 365 billion a year by 2035; international public adaptation finance USD 26 billion in 2023; 59% as debt); the report pages returned access errors. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026 full report (grid investment near USD 550 billion in 2026, from press summaries); the report page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58, 2021, cited from memory; the congressional research page returned an access error. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Walsh, B., Building Back Better: Achieving Resilience through Stronger, Faster, and More Inclusive Post-Disaster Reconstruction. World Bank, Washington, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rozenberg, J. and Fay, M., Beyond the Gap: How Countries Can Afford the Infrastructure They Need while Protecting the Planet. World Bank, Washington, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Good Governance for Critical Infrastructure Resilience. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment, 2019, cited from memory. G20. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14091:2021, Adaptation to climate change: guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44EIB (ed.), EIB Group Climate Bank Roadmap Phase 2: 2026-2030 (publication page dated 3 October 2025; new target of EUR 30 billion for climate adaptation finance for 2026 to 2030, doubling 2021 to 2025 volumes). European Investment Bank, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-14
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 resilience investment edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
SR-14NR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-STR-SR-14-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

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Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. SR-14 edition Reports Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-14 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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