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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables10 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate technology is infrastructure with a measurement problem
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Planned storage outruns delivered storage
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

CLI · Climate state

Global temperature above pre-industrial, 2025

1.47degrees C

third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 averaged above 1.5.

Reported2025Copernicus12

CLI · Budget

Remaining 1.5 degrees C budget

170GtCO2

about four years at 2025 emissions.

Reported2025Global Carbon Project3

CLI · Removal

Total carbon removal per year

2.2GtCO2 per year

99.9% conventional; novel about 2 MtCO2.

Reported2025State of CDR1

INF · Capture

Operating capture capacity

68Mtpa

113 commercial projects; capacity is not capture.

Reported2026Global CCS Institute6

FIN · Markets

Carbon pricing revenue

>107USD billion

about 29% of emissions priced.

Reported2025World Bank13

SYS · Cross-system

Gap between pledges and Paris-compatible removal

5.2GtCO2 per year

in 2050; 1.2 in 2035.

Reported2050 gapState of CDR1

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through climate technology, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries climate technology risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATWater use of capture and direct air capture plants is not published on a common basis.ENE → WATExpert input EQL 1
ENESolar generation grew 30% in 2025 and fossil generation fell slightly; capture plants need heat and power.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 4
FOOLand for afforestation and biomass competes with other uses; no figure bound here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; heat and air quality effects are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIOBiomass and land-based removal touch ecosystems; no figure bound here.BIO ↔ CLIExpert input EQL 1
CLIThe core system: 2025 at 1.47 degrees C, a 170 GtCO2 budget, 2.2 GtCO2 per year of removal.the core systemReported EQL 4
INFOperating capture capacity of 68 Mtpa; shared transport and storage in operation in Norway.INF → CLIReported EQL 4
FINCarbon pricing raised more than USD 107 billion in 2025; durable removal markets are small.FIN → INFReported EQL 4
DATMeasurement, reporting and registry data decide what counts as removal; bases differ.DAT → FINReported EQL 3
AICNo documented coupling at baseline; compute for monitoring is not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
MINSorbent, steel and storage geology dependencies are not mapped here.MIN → INFExpert input EQL 1
TRDThe EU carbon border mechanism prices embedded emissions of imports in six sectors.TRD ↔ FINReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on climate technology, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemclimate technology couples to energy, finance and rulesplanned against delivered storageTHIN
GS-01Waterplant water use not publishedsitingTHIN
GS-02Energysolar generation up 30% in 20255power for capture plantsGOOD
GS-03Foodland competition not evidenced herenone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05Financecarbon pricing revenue above USD 107 billion13price and credit qualityPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaccess to technology and financewidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climate2025 at 1.47 degrees C12; budget3removal falling short of pledges1GOOD
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructureshared transport and storage10single-site dependencePARTIAL
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityland-based removal effects not boundnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationmonitoring of removal not evidenced herenone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalregistries and measurement data21data basis differencesPARTIAL
GS-14PolicyEU border mechanism and removal framework1722rule fragmentationPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed removal assessment1common registry basisGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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