Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 climate technology agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 climate technology edition.

6 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate technology is infrastructure with a measurement problem
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Planned storage outruns delivered storage
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate technology candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. C-01

    How much durable storage is planned, permitted and actually injecting, by country?

    INI-XT17-STO-01 · planned and delivered storage; first output: storage register.

  2. C-02

    What do capture and direct air capture plants need in power and water per tonne?

    INI-XT17-ENE-02 · energy and water footprint; first output: footprint estimates by plant type.

  3. C-03

    Which sorbents, minerals, biomass and fabrication steps are single points of failure?

    INI-XT17-MAT-03 · materials and biomass; first output: dependence map.

  4. C-04

    How can delivered removal be counted on one registry basis, with uncertainty?

    INI-XT17-MRV-04 · removal on a common basis; first output: reconciliation table.

  5. C-05

    How does actual annual capture compare with design capacity?

    INI-XT17-CAP-05 · capture against capacity; first output: operator reporting overlay.

  6. C-06

    Which national and regional rules set quality criteria for removal credits?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: rule overlay.

  7. C-07

    What workforce exists for capture, storage and removal projects?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. C-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real projects, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 climate technology portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT17-STO-01Planned and delivered storageInitiativeC-01PROPOSED
INI-XT17-ENE-02Energy and water footprintInitiativeC-02PROPOSED
INI-XT17-MAT-03Materials and biomassInitiativeC-03PROPOSED
INI-XT17-MRV-04Removal on a common basisInitiativeC-04PROPOSED
INI-XT17-CAP-05Capture against capacityInitiativeC-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT17-2027-01Storage delivery Universe missionMissionC-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The climate technology edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, climate and minerals, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    climate technology and carbon management readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · GS-07 climate · SR-04 minerals

    GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    capture, storage, removal, power, markets, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-17 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate technology candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate technology candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT17-2027-01 · Storage delivery Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · temperature 2025INI-XT17-MRV-04removal on a common basisPUBLIC
CLI-002 · budgetINI-XT17-STO-01planned and delivered storagePUBLIC
ENE-003 · solar growthINI-XT17-ENE-02 · key F reviewenergy and water footprintPUBLIC
INF-005 · capture statusINI-XT17-CAP-05capture against capacityPUBLIC
INF-006 · Brevik and storageINI-XT17-STO-01planned and delivered storagePUBLIC
CLI-007 · removal inventoryINI-XT17-MRV-04removal on a common basisPUBLIC
FIN-010 · pricingINI-XT17-MAT-03materials and biomassPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT17-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Copernicus and NOAA monthly climate and CO2 pagesagenciesmonthlyCLI-001
Global Carbon Project annual budgetresearch projectannualCLI-002
Ember electricity reviewsthink tankannualENE-003
Global CCS Institute status pagesinstituteannualINF-005
State of CDR and removal dashboardsresearch group and dashboardperiodicCLI-007
World Bank carbon pricing reportdevelopment bankannualFIN-010
EU border mechanism pagesEuropean Commissionper releaseGOV-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT17-001Gap between pledges and Paris-compatible removal reached 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 20501CORROBORATEDCLI · FINresearch question C-01
SIG-XT17-002Capacity is not capture, as stated by the institute6PARTIALINFresearch question C-05
SIG-XT17-003Direct air capture plant start-up later than first announced1129PARTIALINF · FINinitiative C-01

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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