Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables7 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Climate technology is infrastructure with a measurement problem
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Planned storage outruns delivered storage
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Climate technologies matter to the Nexus programme as physical infrastructure. Capture plants, pipelines, ships, storage wells, solar and wind farms and the grids that serve them are built from steel, sorbents, power and skilled people, and they sit inside rules that decide whether they are paid for. The climate state is the reason. The year 2025 was the third warmest on record at 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial, and the three-year average for 2023 to 2025 passed 1.5 degrees C12. Fossil CO2 emissions were projected to rise 1.1% in 2025, and the remaining budget for a 50% chance of 1.5 degrees C was put at 170 GtCO2, about four years of emissions3. Clean power is the part that is scaling: solar generation grew 30% to 2,778 TWh in 2025 while fossil generation fell slightly5. Capture and removal are far smaller. The Global CCS Institute counts 113 commercial projects in operation and 68 Mtpa of capture capacity at 31 July 2026, and states that capacity is not actual capture6. Total carbon removal is 2.2 GtCO2 per year, 99.9% of it conventional and land based, and novel removal is about 2 MtCO2 per year1. Country pledges fall short of Paris-compatible removal by 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 20501. Carbon pricing covers about 29% of emissions and raised more than USD 107 billion in 202513. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no emissions path and ranks no country, project or vendor.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the climate technology baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Yes. 2025 was 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial and the three-year average passed 1.5.12

    Is the climate warming still?Reported

  2. About 170 GtCO2 for a 50% chance of 1.5 degrees C, at the start of the 2025 edition period.3

    How much budget is left?Reported

  3. Solar generation grew 30% in 2025 and fossil generation fell slightly.5

    Is clean power scaling?Reported

  4. About 68 Mtpa of operating capacity across 113 projects in July 2026; capacity is not capture.6

    How big is capture today?Reported

  5. About 2.2 GtCO2 per year, almost all land based; novel removal is about 2 MtCO2.1

    How much carbon is removed?Reported

  6. No. The gap is 1.2 GtCO2 per year in 2035 and 5.2 in 2050.1

    Do pledges match the pathways?Reported

  7. Carbon pricing covers about 29% of emissions; durable removal markets are small and young.1321

    Are the markets in place?Reported

  8. Planned against delivered durable storage while emissions stay high. SCN-XT17-STO-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

Country pledges reach 2.5 GtCO2 per year of carbon removal in 2030, against a median of 2.9 in the highest-ambition Paris-compatible scenarios; the gap grows to 1.2 in 2035 and 5.2 in 2050.

Figure S.1Gap between pledges and Paris-compatible removal (GtCO2 per year)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
20300.3
20351.2
20505.2

Source: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition1. Gaps as published; rounded inputs mean the 2030 gap differs from the difference of the rounded levels.

Removal is expected to carry more of the load as emissions stay high, yet current removal is almost all conventional and land based, and novel removal is about 2 MtCO2 per year1. Companies announce more than 5 GtCO2 per year by 2050, but the report rates the credibility of those announcements as low1.

S.4At a glance

1.47degrees C

2025 above pre-industrial12

170GtCO2

remaining 1.5 degrees C budget3

68Mtpa

operating capture capacity6

2.2GtCO2 per year

total carbon removal1

>107USD billion

carbon pricing revenue, 202513

5.2GtCO2 per year

pledge gap in 20501

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading climate technology as infrastructure with a measurement problem.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the story arrives as a headline about a plant or a pledge.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Carbon pricing raised more than USD 107 billion in 2025 and removal purchases are small and young.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Climate technology is well described by climate state and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of climate technologies and carbon management as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of emissions or temperature, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any vendor or project, or an assessment of any programme. Standards, carbon prices, permits and funding are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 climate technology edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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