Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the climate technology baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate technology is infrastructure with a measurement problem
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Infrastructure
    5. 2.5 Finance
    6. 2.6 Governance
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Planned storage outruns delivered storage
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

Country pledges reach 2.5 GtCO2 per year of carbon removal in 2030, against a median of 2.9 in the highest-ambition Paris-compatible scenarios; the gap grows to 1.2 in 2035 and 5.2 in 2050.

Figure 2.1Gap between pledges and Paris-compatible removal (GtCO2 per year)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
20300.3
20351.2
20505.2

Source: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition1. Gaps as published; rounded inputs mean the 2030 gap differs from the difference of the rounded levels.

Implication

Removal is expected to carry more of the load as emissions stay high, yet current removal is almost all conventional and land based, and novel removal is about 2 MtCO2 per year1. Companies announce more than 5 GtCO2 per year by 2050, but the report rates the credibility of those announcements as low1.

What would move it

New national pledges, the next report edition, delivered novel capacity and registry reconciliation would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Copernicus puts 2025 at 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial, the third warmest year on record, and the 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C for the first time.12

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The Global Carbon Project projects fossil CO2 emissions up 1.1% in 2025 and total CO2 emissions of 42.2 billion tonnes; the remaining 1.5 degrees C budget is 170 GtCO2, about four years.32

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    Total carbon removal is 2.2 GtCO2 per year, 99.9% conventional and mostly land based; novel removal is about 2 MtCO2 per year, growing about 40% per year, with about 20% of planned capacity built.1

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    Country pledges reach 2.5 GtCO2 per year of removal in 2030 against a median of 2.9 in the highest-ambition Paris-compatible scenarios, and the gap grows to 1.2 in 2035 and 5.2 in 2050.1

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Solar generation rose 636 TWh (30%) to 2,778 TWh in 2025, and fossil generation fell by 38 TWh, the first year since 2020 without a rise.54

  2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    A search summary of IRENA statistics reports 692 GW of renewable capacity added in 2025 and 5,149 GW in total; the primary release was not opened.26

2.4Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

    The Global CCS Institute counts 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa of capture capacity at 31 July 2026, and states that capacity is not actual annual capture.67

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-006

    Brevik cement capture began operation in June 2025 with a design capture of about 400,000 tonnes per year, around half of the plant emissions; Northern Lights phase 1 storage of 1.5 Mtpa is operational.8910

  3. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-009

    A company announcement states that the STRATOS direct air capture plant is designed for up to 500,000 tonnes per year, and the US EPA issued the first Class VI permits for a direct air capture project in April 2025; later start-up timing is from a trade report.111929

2.5Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    Direct carbon pricing covers about 29% of global emissions, raised more than USD 107 billion in 2025 and spans 87 instruments, at an average price near USD 21 per tonne.13

2.6Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011

    The EU carbon border mechanism entered its definitive period on 1 January 2026 for cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen.17

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading pathway for 2027 testing is a gap between planned and delivered durable storage while emissions stay high and removal is expected to carry more of the load. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965 to 1039, 2025 (abstract page: fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 235 GtCO2 remaining for 1.5 degrees C from the start of 2025). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025 (2024 data: solar 6.9% and wind 8.1% of electricity; low-carbon share 40.9%; solar generation up 29%; fossil generation up 1.4%). Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 7Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2025 media release (9 October 2025; 77 operational facilities, up 54% from 50; 47 projects under construction with 44 Mtpa; 513 Mtpa operating and in development). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 9Heidelberg Materials (ed.), World premiere at Heidelberg Materials: opening of CCS facility in Norway (company release, 18 June 2025; about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, 50% of plant emissions). Company statement, weak evidence. Heidelberg Materials, Heidelberg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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