Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four climate technology risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

5 min read0 figures1 table17 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate technology is infrastructure with a measurement problem
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Planned storage outruns delivered storage
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 4RSK-XT17-CLI-001

    Removal shortfall against pledges and pathways

    Driver
    emissions still rising and pledges below scenario levels13
    Exposure
    net-zero plans that rely on removal
    Vulnerability
    novel capacity built is about 20% of plans1
    Capacity
    new pledges, storage permits and offtake2019
    Cascade
    CLI → FIN, GOV
    Horizon
    5 to 10 years

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT17-INF-002

    Storage and transport chokepoints

    Driver
    growth in capture projects against few storage sites610
    Exposure
    projects that depend on one shared store
    Vulnerability
    permitting time and single-site dependence19
    Capacity
    phase 2 storage expansion under construction8
    Cascade
    INF → FIN, CLI
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT17-DAT-003

    Measurement and credit quality gaps

    Driver
    registry bases differ and capacity is not capture621
    Exposure
    buyers and regulators relying on credits
    Vulnerability
    uneven quantification rules
    Capacity
    core carbon principles and the EU removal framework1522
    Cascade
    DAT → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT17-GOV-004

    Rule and price fragmentation

    Driver
    different carbon prices, disclosure rules and border measures131718
    Exposure
    trade in cement, steel, aluminium, fertilisers and hydrogen
    Vulnerability
    uneven coverage of emissions by pricing
    Capacity
    disclosure and target-setting standards1824
    Cascade
    GOV → TRD, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for climate technology at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSclean power scaling and carbon pricing in place513
Monitoring and observationEXISTSannual budget and temperature assessments312
Early warningLISTEDno common tracker of planned against delivered storage
Preparedness and planningEXISTSdisclosure and target-setting standards1824
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDstorage reserve capacity is not documented
ResponseLISTEDno tested response to a removal shortfall
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
RecoveryLISTEDnot applicable at baseline; no event to recover from
AdaptationLISTEDnot reviewed here
Social protectionLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
Finance and insuranceEXISTSpricing revenue and a removal purchase commitment1320
Institutional coordinationEXISTSstandards bodies and national frameworks151722
Technical infrastructureEXISTSoperating capture and shared storage610
WorkforceLISTEDskills gaps reported; no figure bound
Research capacityADEQUATEpeer-reviewed removal assessment with open data12
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ed.), Core Carbon Principles (page; ten principles in three groups; no credit categories listed on the page). ICVCM, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 18IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (navigator page; issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 24Science Based Targets initiative (ed.), Corporate Net-Zero Standard (page; versions 1.3.1 and 2.0; target validation under version 2.0 from the first quarter of 2027; all new submissions aligned to version 2.0 from 1 February 2028). SBTi, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 2Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965 to 1039, 2025 (abstract page: fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 235 GtCO2 remaining for 1.5 degrees C from the start of 2025). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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