Readings from the other desks

The climate technology baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

16 min read0 figures8 tables39 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
GRA Capital Readiness	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Standards Progress	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Academy Capability	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Index Measurement	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading climate technology as infrastructure with a measurement problem. Clean power is scaling, capture is small, and removal is almost all conventional. Evidence is strongest for climate state and removal inventory, and weakest for energy, water and delivered storage.

CLI-001 · CLI-007 · CLI-008 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the story arrives as a headline about a plant or a pledge. The baseline asks that public debate separate design capacity from capture, plans from delivery, and company statements from measured results.

INF-005 · INF-009 · CLI-008

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Carbon pricing raised more than USD 107 billion in 2025 and removal purchases are small and young¹³²⁰. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-010 · INF-006

NEXUS

Synthesis

Climate technology is well described by climate state and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind storage delivery, publish a comparable footprint and reconcile removal registries.

SYS-012 · C-01 · C-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for climate technology. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability exist?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests show?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What changed in the year, and what renews?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Nexus Standards and Academy	technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability	technology editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Climate technology is built from plants, ships, wells and grids. Treating it as infrastructure puts power, water, materials, permits and people on the table next to the devices.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Infrastructure first

Design capacity and actual capture differ, and plans differ from delivery. This edition labels each and asks for a common registry basis before totals are compared.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Capacity is not capture

Almost all removal today is conventional and land based. Novel methods are tiny, growing fast and far from the scale in pathways.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Removal is mostly land

Carbon prices, border measures and credit quality rules decide what is paid for. They are uneven, and they are moving.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Rules and prices decide

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 climate technology readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 climate technology readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Climate technology risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	national chapters in preparation	national chapters
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
PUBLISHED
DRAFT
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
IFRS S2 climate-related disclosures¹⁸	ISSB	global	PUBLISHED 2023 · AMENDED 2025	disclosure
EU carbon border mechanism¹⁷	European Commission	EU	IN FORCE 2026	border pricing
EU removal and carbon farming framework²²⁴⁰	European Commission	EU	PUBLISHED 2024	removal rules
Core Carbon Principles¹⁵	ICVCM	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	credit quality
Corporate Net-Zero Standard²⁴	SBTi	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	targets
GHG Protocol Corporate Standard²³	GHG Protocol	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	accounting
ISO 14068-1³⁶	ISO	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	carbon neutrality
ISO 14064-2⁴³	ISO	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	project quantification
Class VI well rules¹⁹	US EPA	US	IN FORCE	storage permits
Section 45Q tax credit³⁷	US Congress	US	IN FORCE	capture incentive

Changed since 2024

The EU carbon border mechanism entered its definitive period on 1 January 2026¹⁷
The ISSB issued amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures in December 2025¹⁸
The SBTi published version 2.0 of its Corporate Net-Zero Standard, with new submissions aligned to it from 1 February 2028²⁴

To watch in 2027

Quality and accounting rules for international credits under the EU 2040 target²⁸³⁸
Methodology acts under the EU removal framework²²⁴⁰
Annual reviews of the Core Carbon Principles¹⁵

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers climate technology assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about climate technologies and carbon management as infrastructure and its couplings?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed journals and assessments; agencies and standards bodies; frameworks; operator pages and market dashboards
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Table 6.5Peer-reviewed science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
State of CDR third edition¹	assessment report	2026	supports	removal inventory and gap
Global Carbon Budget 2024²	journal article	2025	supports	budget and emissions
IPCC AR6 Working Group III³³	assessment report	2022	framework	mitigation pathways
IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report³⁴	assessment report	2023	framework	carbon budgets
IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degrees C⁴¹	assessment report	2018	framework	removal in pathways
Fuss et al.⁴²	journal article	2018	context	costs and potentials

Table 6.6Institutional reports and dashboards
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Global Carbon Budget 2025 news page³	project news page	2025	supports	projection and budget
Copernicus annual summary¹²	agency news page	2026	supports	temperature 2025
NOAA global monitoring page¹⁶	agency data page	2026	supports	CO2 concentration
Ember electricity reviews⁴⁵	think-tank reports	2025 to 2026	supports	power generation
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025³²	UN report	2025	context	warming projections
WMO State of the Global Climate 2025³⁹	UN agency report	2026	context	climate indicators

Table 6.7Standards, policy and frameworks
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
EU carbon border mechanism page¹⁷	European Commission	2026	supports	definitive period
EU removal and carbon farming page²²	European Commission	2026	context	removal framework
Regulation (EU) 2024/3012⁴⁰	EU law	2024	context	removal framework text
IFRS S2 page¹⁸	ISSB	2025	context	disclosure
Core Carbon Principles¹⁵	ICVCM	2026	context	credit quality
Paris Agreement⁴⁴	UNFCCC	2015	framework	temperature goal

Table 6.8Operators, markets and field overviews
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Global CCS Institute status page⁶⁷	institute	2025 to 2026	supports	capture projects
Brevik facility profile⁸	institute	2026	supports	cement capture
Heidelberg Materials release⁹	company	2025	context	vendor statement
Northern Lights page¹⁰	operator	2025	context	storage capacity
STRATOS release and trade report¹¹²⁹	company and trade press	2025 to 2026	context	vendor statement
Frontier page and CDR.fyi²⁰²¹	buyer group and dashboard	2026	context	removal market

Where the evidence agrees

The climate is warming and the budget for 1.5 degrees C is short¹²³
Clean power is scaling fast⁵
Novel removal is far smaller than the need¹

Where it is unsettled

How much durable removal and storage will actually be delivered by 2030¹⁶
How capture capacity, capture and removal should be counted on a common basis⁶²¹
How large the energy and water footprint of capture will be at scale¹

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (navigator page; issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/3012 establishing a Union framework for permanent carbon removals, carbon farming and carbon storage in products, cited from memory; the text page returned empty content. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ed.), Core Carbon Principles (page; ten principles in three groups; no credit categories listed on the page). ICVCM, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24Science Based Targets initiative (ed.), Corporate Net-Zero Standard (page; versions 1.3.1 and 2.0; target validation under version 2.0 from the first quarter of 2027; all new submissions aligned to version 2.0 from 1 February 2028). SBTi, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (eds.), GHG Protocol Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard (page; 2004 edition, revised 2015 with the Scope 2 Guidance). GHG Protocol, Washington. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14068-1:2023 Climate change management, transition to net zero, carbon neutrality, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14064-2:2019 Greenhouse gases, specification for quantification, monitoring and reporting of project emission reductions or removal enhancements, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Research Service (ed.), The Section 45Q tax credit for carbon sequestration, cited from memory without credit values; the page returned an access error. US Congress, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending the European Climate Law for a 2040 target of a 90% net reduction with up to 5% international credits from 2036, taken from search-result summaries that did not confirm adoption dates. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), press release on the provisional agreement on the 2040 climate target of 10 December 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965 to 1039, 2025 (abstract page: fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 235 GtCO2 remaining for 1.5 degrees C from the start of 2025). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory without figures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory without figures; the page returned an access error. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C, special report, 2018, cited from memory without figures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fuss, S. et al., Negative emissions, Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects, Environmental Research Letters 13, 063002, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide (page; Mauna Loa monthly mean 426.07 ppm for September 2026 and 424.37 ppm for September 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025 (2024 data: solar 6.9% and wind 8.1% of electricity; low-carbon share 40.9%; solar generation up 29%; fossil generation up 1.4%). Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, cited without figures; the page returned a not-found error. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Paris Agreement, adopted 12 December 2015, cited from memory; the page returned empty content. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2025 media release (9 October 2025; 77 operational facilities, up 54% from 50; 47 projects under construction with 44 Mtpa; 513 Mtpa operating and in development). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Heidelberg Materials (ed.), World premiere at Heidelberg Materials: opening of CCS facility in Norway (company release, 18 June 2025; about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, 50% of plant emissions). Company statement, weak evidence. Heidelberg Materials, Heidelberg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Equinor (ed.), Sleipner (operator page; CO2 removal from produced gas since 1996; more than 19 million tonnes stored by the end of 2020; Utsira formation). Operator statement. Equinor, Stavanger. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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