Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

9 min read0 figures5 tables20 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate technology is infrastructure with a measurement problem
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Planned storage outruns delivered storage
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Capture, transport and storage infrastructure
    2. 8.2 Energy, power and water for capture and removal
    3. 8.3 Materials, biomass and storage geology
    4. 8.4 Economy, markets and workforce
    5. 8.5 Security, disclosure and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Capture, transport and storage infrastructure

Capture plants, ships, pipelines and storage wells are built infrastructure. Counts are strongest for design capacity and weakest for actual capture and injected volumes.

113projects

commercial CCS projects in operation, July 20266

68Mtpa

operating capture capacity6

44Mtpa

under construction, 2025 edition7

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Cement captureBrevik design capture of about 400,000 tonnes per year, around half of plant emissions89Reported
Shared storageNorthern Lights phase 1 of 1.5 Mtpa operational; phase 2 to 5 Mtpa under construction108Reported
Direct air captureSTRATOS designed for up to 500,000 tonnes per year; first Class VI permits for direct air capture in April 20251119Reported
PrecedentCO2 separated from produced gas at Sleipner since 199625Reported

Couplings

  • INF → CLI capture and storage
  • FIN → INF offtake and premiums
  • ENE → INF power and heat

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • actual capture against capacity
  • injected volumes by project

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.2Energy, power and water for capture and removal

Capture and removal need heat, power and water. Clean power is scaling, while the footprint per tonne of capture plants is not published on a common basis.

2,778TWh

solar generation, 20255

30%

solar generation growth, 20255

-38TWh

change in fossil generation, 20255

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Solar generationrose 636 TWh to 2,778 TWh in 20255Reported
Fossil generationfell by 38 TWh, the first year since 2020 without a rise5Reported
Renewable capacitya search summary reports 692 GW added in 2025, and a forecast summary reports about 4,600 GW more by 20302627Reported
Plant energy and waternot published per tonne on a common basis1Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE ↔ INF facility power
  • ENE → WAT process water
  • CLI ← ENE emission cuts from clean power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • energy and water per tonne
  • capture plant load on grids

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.3Materials, biomass and storage geology

Capture and removal depend on solvents and sorbents, steel, biomass and suitable geology. These dependencies are the least documented part of the evidence here.

≈0.97MtCO2 per year

woody biochar removal, 20251

2.6km

injection depth below seabed at Brevik storage8

100km

subsea pipeline length to the store8

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Biochar and bioenergy methodsaccount for almost all novel removal1Reported
Storage geologysaline aquifer storage in the Johansen formation, 2.6 km below the seabed8Reported
Capture solvents and sorbentssupply chains not mapped here1Expert input
Fabricationcapacity by country not consolidated here1Expert input

Couplings

  • MIN → INF materials
  • BIO → ENE biomass feedstock
  • FIN → INF fabrication

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • sorbent and solvent supply
  • storage capacity by country

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.4Economy, markets and workforce

Carbon pricing raised large public revenues in 2025, while durable removal markets are small and young. Workforce numbers are not bound.

>107USD billion

carbon pricing revenue, 202513

29%

share of global emissions under direct pricing13

50.6million tonnes

durable removal contracted, cumulative21

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Carbon pricing87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne13Reported
Removal purchasesa buyer group commits USD 1.8 billion for permanent removal by 204020Reported
Durable removal market50.6 million tonnes contracted and 1.7 million delivered on one dashboard, with no as-of date21Reported
Public programmesUS direct air capture hubs programme of four hubs, each with a target of at least 1 million tonnes per year14Reported

Couplings

  • FIN → INF scale-up
  • DAT → FIN registry basis
  • HLT → INF workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • durable removal prices and retirements
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.5Security, disclosure and governance watch

Rules decide what is paid for and what counts. Border pricing is in its definitive period, disclosure and target standards are being revised, and credit quality rules are voluntary.

1January 2026

start of the definitive period of the EU border mechanism17

6sectors

covered by the border mechanism17

10principles

in the Core Carbon Principles15

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Border pricingcement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen17Reported
DisclosureIFRS S2 applies from 2024; amendments to emissions disclosures issued in December 202518Reported
Credit qualityten principles in three groups: governance, emissions impact, sustainable impact15Reported
TargetsCorporate Net-Zero Standard version 2.0 published; new submissions align to it from 1 February 202824Reported

Couplings

  • GOV → TRD border pricing
  • GOV → DAT disclosure data
  • GOV → FIN credit quality

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • text of removal methodologies
  • national credit quality rules

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2025 media release (9 October 2025; 77 operational facilities, up 54% from 50; 47 projects under construction with 44 Mtpa; 513 Mtpa operating and in development). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9Heidelberg Materials (ed.), World premiere at Heidelberg Materials: opening of CCS facility in Norway (company release, 18 June 2025; about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, 50% of plant emissions). Company statement, weak evidence. Heidelberg Materials, Heidelberg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 25Equinor (ed.), Sleipner (operator page; CO2 removal from produced gas since 1996; more than 19 million tonnes stored by the end of 2020; Utsira formation). Operator statement. Equinor, Stavanger. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025 (forecast of about 4,600 GW of new renewable capacity to 2030, near 80% solar), taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 14US Department of Energy Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (ed.), Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs (programme page; four hubs with potential of at least 1 million tonnes per year each; USD 3.5 billion announcement of December 2022 and USD 1.8 billion announcement of December 2024; no awardees named on the page). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 15Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ed.), Core Carbon Principles (page; ten principles in three groups; no credit categories listed on the page). ICVCM, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 18IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (navigator page; issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 24Science Based Targets initiative (ed.), Corporate Net-Zero Standard (page; versions 1.3.1 and 2.0; target validation under version 2.0 from the first quarter of 2027; all new submissions aligned to version 2.0 from 1 February 2028). SBTi, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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