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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

EU land under water scarcity in at least one season

28%

About 32% of the population lived in those areas in 2023.

Reported2023EEA19

ENE · Energy

Renewables in gross final energy consumption

25.2%

The 2030 target is 42.5%; the gap was 17.3 points.

Reported2024Eurostat7

FOO · Food

Farm managers aged 65 or over

33.2%

Only 11.9% of managers were under 40.

Reported2020Eurostat31

HLT · Health

Modelled heat-related deaths, 32 European countries, summer

62,775deaths

A peer-reviewed estimate, not a registry count.

Reported2024Janoš et al.17

BIO · Biodiversity

EU land in protected areas

26.1%

Marine areas 12.3%, against 30% by 2030 for both.

Reported2022EEA27

SYS · Cross-system

Weather and climate losses, cumulative

822EUR billion

Less than 20% was privately insured.

Reported1980 to 2024EEA23

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATScarcity touched 28% of EU land and 32% of people in 2023; abstraction fell 14% since 2000.WAT → HLT · WAT → FOOReported EQL 4
ENERenewables 25.2% of final energy; 57% of energy imported.ENE ← TRD · ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOO9.1 million farms in 2020; a third of managers 65 or over.FOO ← TRD, ENE, WATReported EQL 4
HLTModelled heat deaths of 62,775 in summer 2024; local dengue and chikungunya now recorded.HLT ← CLI, WATReported EQL 3
BIOProtected land 26.1% and sea 12.3% in 2022; record burnt area in 2025.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 4
CLIWarmest year on record for Europe in 2024; warming over twice the global rate.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 5
INFDuties on critical entities and network security are in law; asset condition is not assessed here.INF → allReported EQL 3
FINLosses of EUR 822 billion since 1980; less than 20% privately insured.FIN ← CLIReported EQL 4
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICThe AI Act is in force; EU-wide data-centre power and water demand is not shown.AIC → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
MINThe Critical Raw Materials Act sets 2030 benchmarks; current import concentration is not shown.MIN ← TRDReported EQL 3
TRDImports cover 57% of energy; the Russian gas share fell to 12% in 2025.TRD → allReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound heat, drought, fire and energy stresssummer stress met by tight supplyPARTIAL
GS-01Waterscarcity on 28% of land19drought; floodPARTIAL
GS-02Energyrenewables 25.2%; imports 57%78gas supply shock; peak demandGOOD
GS-03Food9.1 million farms; ageing managers3031input import shocksPARTIAL
GS-04Health62,775 modelled heat deaths17; local arboviruses33heat surge; vector-borne diseaseGOOD
GS-05FinanceEUR 822 billion losses; under 20% insured23catastrophe fiscal costPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentuneven exposure across member states24service strain in exposed regionsPARTIAL
GS-07Climatewarmest year 2024; 95% of Europe above average 20251516heat; marine heatwavesGOOD
GS-08Disastercivil protection mechanism; stockpiling strategy394041simultaneous events in several statesPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructurecritical-entity rules in law35cross-border grid and pipeline linksPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesurban heat exposure not mapped at city scale hereheat; floodingTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityprotected land 26.1%; record burnt area2227fire; land usePARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationannual Copernicus reports1516continuityGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitalduties in NIS236; dependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyClimate Law and 2040 target4; preparedness strategy39coordination across 27 statesPARTIAL
GS-15ScienceEEA, JRC and Copernicus assessments1524translation to member-state scalePARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  4. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
  5. 27European Environment Agency (ed.), “Protected areas,” in Europe’s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  7. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  9. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 24European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment, EEA Report 01/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.back
  11. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  12. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
  13. 39European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025.back
  14. 40European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025.back
  15. 41European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013.back
  16. 35European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
  17. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  18. 36European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
  19. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the European Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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