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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables20 notesNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Water stress is a growing feature of the Union, and its response so far is a strategy with a non-binding efficiency aim.

28%

of EU land under scarcity in at least one season, 202319

32%

of the population in those areas, 202319

−14%

abstraction 2000 to 202319

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Scarcity28% of land and 32% of people in 202319Reported
Abstractiondown 14% since 2000, scarce area not reduced19Reported
Policyframework law since 2000; efficiency aim of at least 10% by 2030, not binding2021Reported
Drought extentnot shown: JRC drought observatory; no dated EU-only release readn/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
  • CLI → WAT drought and heat
  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • WAT → ENE cooling and hydropower

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • EU-wide drought extent
  • basin-level shared-water use

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Emissions are falling and renewables reached 25.2% of final energy in 2024, but imports cover 57% of energy needs and the 2030 renewables target is 17.3 points away.

25.2%

renewables in final energy, 20247

57%

energy import dependency, 20248

12%

Russian share of gas imports, 20259

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power and heatemissions down 58% since 19901Reported
Importsoil 67% and gas 24% of energy imports in 20248Reported
Russian gasphase-out regulation in force from 3 February 202610Reported
Data-centre demandnot shown: IEA regional data; Europe-only figure seen only in secondary coveragen/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → ENE gas and fuel imports
  • ENE → FOO fertiliser and farm energy
  • CLI → ENE peak demand and river flow
  • ENE → HLT cooling and heating

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • gas storage depth before winter
  • data-centre electricity demand

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Farms are fewer and their managers older. Dependence on imported fertiliser and feed matters for food security, but this edition cannot yet show it with sourced numbers.

9.1million

farms in 2020, 5.3 million fewer than 200530

33.2%

of farm managers aged 65 or over, 202031

10.5%

of farmland organic, 202232

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Farms9.1 million in 2020, about 37% fewer than 200530Reported
Succession33.2% of managers 65 or over; 11.9% under 4031Reported
Organic10.5% of farmland in 2022, against a 25% aim for 20302932Reported
Fertilisernot shown: import share by origin; Eurostat trade data, no primary figure readn/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → FOO imports of inputs
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser costs
  • CLI → FOO heat and drought
  • WAT → FOO irrigation

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fertiliser and feed import shares
  • yield loss in drought years

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Europe is ageing and warming. Heat now causes tens of thousands of modelled deaths a summer, and mosquito-borne diseases have begun to spread locally.

62,775deaths

modelled heat deaths, 32 countries, summer 202417

22.0%

aged 65 or over, 202514

35cases

local dengue, France, Italy and Portugal, 202534

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Ageing22.0% aged 65 or over; median age 44.914Reported
Heatmodelled deaths in 32 European countries, summer 202417Reported
Vector-bornechikungunya 788 in France, 384 in Italy; dengue 35 in 20253334Reported
Care capacitynot shown: hospital and care surge capacity; no comparable EU figure readn/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • BIO → HLT disease vectors

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • EU-only subtotal of heat deaths
  • care surge capacity

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protection is growing but short of 30%, and wildfire burnt a record area in 2025, about four hectares in ten inside Natura 2000 sites.

26.1%

of land protected, 202227

12.3%

of sea protected, 202227

1,079,538ha

burnt in 202522

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Protectionland 26.1%, sea 12.3% against 30% by 20302729Reported
LawNature Restoration Regulation in force28Reported
Fireabout 39% of the burnt area inside Natura 2000 sites22Reported
Conditionnot shown: habitat and species condition; no current EEA figure readn/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • CLI → BIO heat, drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • habitat condition
  • strictly protected share

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 20European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025.back
  3. 21European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy (Water Framework Directive). Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000.back
  4. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back
  7. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
  9. 12European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
  10. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  11. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  12. 32Eurostat (ed.), “EU organic farming: 16.9 million hectares in 2022.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 19 June 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  13. 29European Commission (ed.), EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030: Bringing nature back into our lives, COM(2020) 380. Brussels, 2020.back
  14. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
  15. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  16. 34European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  17. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  18. 27European Environment Agency (ed.), “Protected areas,” in Europe’s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  19. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  20. 28European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the European Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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