- European Union 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
The European Union enters 2027 with falling emissions, a rising share of renewable energy and a set of shared hazards that cross every border. Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024, and the legal 2040 target is a 90% net cut14. Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy in 2024 against a 2030 target of 42.5%, and imports still cover 57% of energy needs7811. Russian gas fell from 45% of gas imports to 12% in 2025, and a phase-out regulation has been in force since 3 February 2026910. Europe was warmer than ever recorded in 2024, a study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in 32 European countries in that summer1617, and the EU burnt a record 1,079,538 hectares in 202522. Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured23. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for the Union’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which heat, supply and price shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the European Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Net domestic emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024; the 2040 target is 90%.14
Where do emissions stand?Reported
Net imports cover 57% of energy needs, and renewables reached 25.2% of final energy.78
How secure is energy supply?Reported
Its share of gas imports fell to 12% in 2025, and a phase-out regulation is in force.910
What changed for Russian gas?Reported
A study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in 32 European countries in summer 2024.17
Is heat now a health hazard?Reported
Scarcity touched 28% of EU land and 32% of people in 2023.19
How much water stress is there?Reported
A record 1,079,538 hectares burnt, about 39% inside Natura 2000 sites.22
What did the 2025 fire season show?Reported
Less than 20% of EUR 822 billion of losses was privately insured.23
Who carries the losses?Reported
A summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states, met by tight energy supply. SCN-EU-CLI-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010
Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of economic losses in the EU from 1980 to 2024, a quarter of it between 2021 and 2024, and less than 20% of the total was privately insured.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Cumulative 1980 to 2024 | 822 | |
| of which 2021 to 2024 | 208 |
Source: EEA economic losses indicator23.
Losses are concentrated in a small share of events, and most of the cost falls outside private insurance, so public budgets and households carry much of it. An EIOPA and ECB paper proposes a two-pillar EU scheme to narrow the gap; it is a proposal, not law2526.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union’s risk: heat, drought and fire are rising, imports still shape energy security, and finance is thin.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a fire or a bill.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Less than 20% of losses were privately insured, and an EIOPA and ECB proposal for an EU-level scheme is under discussion.
NEXUS
Synthesis
The Union is strong at monitoring and law-making and thinner at keeping water, health care and supply running through simultaneous multi-country events.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of the European Union’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back
- 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 11European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023.back
- 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
- 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
- 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
- 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.back
- 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.back
- 13Eurostat (ed.), “EU population continued to grow in 2025.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back