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Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table22 notesNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-EU-CLI-001

    Heat, drought and wildfire in a single season

    Driver
    longer, hotter summers
    Exposure
    southern and central member states; forests and protected sites
    Vulnerability
    older population; scarcity on 28% of land19
    Capacity
    civil protection mechanism and rescEU41
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT, HLT, BIO, ENE
    Horizon
    seasonal

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-EU-ENE-002

    Gas supply disruption during the Russian phase-out

    Driver
    loss of remaining Russian volumes or an LNG price spike
    Exposure
    power, industry, heating
    Vulnerability
    imports cover 57% of energy8
    Capacity
    storage rules and stockpiling strategy1240
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-EU-FIN-003

    Uninsured catastrophe losses reach public budgets

    Driver
    floods, storms, heat and fire
    Exposure
    households and public infrastructure
    Vulnerability
    less than 20% of losses insured23
    Capacity
    national schemes; an EIOPA and ECB proposal26
    Cascade
    CLI → FIN → public budgets
    Horizon
    annual

  4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-EU-HLT-004

    Heat and vector-borne disease load on health systems

    Driver
    longer summers and warmer seasons for mosquitoes
    Exposure
    older adults; southern regions
    Vulnerability
    22.0% of the population aged 65 or over14
    Capacity
    ECDC surveillance in operation3334
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSEuropean Climate Law and 2040 target in force45
Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDannual Copernicus, EEA and Eurostat reporting1516
Early warningDEMONSTRATEDEFFIS fire monitoring in operation22
Preparedness and planningEXISTSPreparedness Union Strategy, March 202539; Sendai Framework43
Redundancy and reservesEXISTSgas storage rules and stockpiling strategy1240
ResponseEXISTSUnion Civil Protection Mechanism and rescEU in law41
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTScritical-entity and network-security duties3536
RecoveryLISTEDrecovery funding routes not assessed in this edition
AdaptationEXISTSWater Resilience Strategy and Nature Restoration Regulation2028
Social protectionLISTEDnot assessed in this edition
Finance and insuranceEXISTSnational schemes; under 20% of losses insured23
Institutional coordinationEXISTSEU crisis hub set out in the strategy39
Technical infrastructureLISTEDasset condition not mapped at public-safe resolution
WorkforceLISTEDnot assessed in this edition
Research capacityADEQUATEEEA, JRC and Copernicus assessments1524
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 41European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013.back
  3. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  4. 12European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
  5. 40European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025.back
  6. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  7. 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.back
  8. 14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  9. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 34European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  11. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back
  12. 5European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.back
  13. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  14. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
  15. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  16. 39European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025.back
  17. 43UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
  18. 35European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
  19. 36European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
  20. 20European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025.back
  21. 28European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back
  22. 24European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment, EEA Report 01/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the European Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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