Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

13 min read0 figures8 tables39 notesNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union’s risk: heat, drought and fire are rising, imports still shape energy security, and finance is thin. Evidence is strongest for emissions, energy and climate monitoring, and weakest for care capacity, fertiliser dependence and digital dependencies.

CLI-001 · ENE-004 · FIN-010 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a fire or a bill. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how an older population changes who is exposed, and how a shared market spreads supply and price shocks across borders.

HLT-007 · BIO-009 · TRD-005

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Less than 20% of losses were privately insured, and an EIOPA and ECB proposal for an EU-level scheme is under discussion²³²⁶. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation to invest.

FIN-010 · CLI-002

NEXUS

Synthesis

The Union is strong at monitoring and law-making and thinner at keeping water, health care and supply running through simultaneous multi-country events. The 2027 programme should map cross-border dependencies, test the compound summer and measure gas, fertiliser and care exposure.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for the European Union. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
European Union	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Heat, drought and fire do not stop at a border, and neither do the markets that carry their effects. The baseline treats the Union as one coupled system whose states carry unequal exposure, not as 27 separate ones.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

The risk is shared

Net imports cover 57% of energy needs. The fall of Russian gas to 12% of imports is real, but the system now depends on other suppliers and on storage. Energy security is a trade question as much as a domestic one.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Security is imported

Floods and fires make headlines, but heat arrives every summer. A study models tens of thousands of heat-related deaths a year, mostly among older people, in a population that is ageing.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Heat is the everyday disaster

When less than a fifth of losses is privately insured, the rest falls on households and public budgets. How the Union spreads that cost is a design choice that is still open.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Insurance decides who pays

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
European Climate Law as amended, Regulation (EU) 2026/667⁴⁵	European Parliament · Council	EU	IN FORCE	2030 and 2040 targets
Paris Agreement and EU nationally determined contribution, 2035 range of 66.25% to 72.5%⁶⁴⁵	UNFCCC · EU	international	SUBMITTED 2025	emissions pathway
Renewable Energy Directive (EU) 2023/2413¹¹	European Parliament · Council	EU	IN FORCE	42.5% by 2030
Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on Russian gas¹⁰	European Parliament · Council	EU	IN FORCE 2026	gas supply
Nature Restoration Regulation (EU) 2024/1991²⁸	European Parliament · Council	EU	IN FORCE	restoration plans
Directives (EU) 2022/2557 and 2022/2555³⁵³⁶	European Parliament · Council	EU	IN FORCE	critical entities, network security
Critical Raw Materials Act, Regulation (EU) 2024/1252³⁷	European Parliament · Council	EU	IN FORCE	supply benchmarks
Kunming-Montreal Framework⁴⁴	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
AI Act, Regulation (EU) 2024/1689³⁸	European Parliament · Council	EU	IN FORCE · PHASED	digital and compute

Changed since 2024

The 90% net cut for 2040 entered the Climate Law in 2026⁴
The Union submitted its 2035 range in November 2025⁶
The Russian gas phase-out regulation took effect on 3 February 2026¹⁰

To watch in 2027

Long-term LNG ban from 1 January 2027 and pipeline gas phase-out by 30 September 2027¹⁰
Status and extension of the gas storage rules¹²
Application dates under the AI Act³⁸

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the European Union’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)⁴²	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)⁴⁶	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.⁴⁷	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Janoš et al.¹⁷	journal article	2025	supports	heat mortality
European Climate Risk Assessment²⁴	assessment	2024	supports	risk clusters
Foundational Edition⁴⁸	edition	2026	framework	series model

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Europe’s environment 2025¹⁸	EEA	2025	supports	water, nature
Trends and projections 2025²	EEA	2025	supports	emissions pathway
Water Resilience Strategy²⁰	European Commission	2025	supports	water policy
Preparedness Union Strategy³⁹	European Commission	2025	supports	capabilities
Stockpiling Strategy⁴⁰	European Commission	2025	supports	reserves

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
GHG inventory 2026¹	EEA	2026	supports	emissions
Renewables and imports⁷⁸	Eurostat	2025 to 2026	supports	energy
Population and demography¹³¹⁴	Eurostat	2026	supports	profile
Farm structure³⁰³¹	Eurostat	2023 to 2025	supports	food
Locally acquired disease³³³⁴	ECDC	2025	supports	health

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Protection gap dashboard²⁵	EIOPA	2023	context	protection gap
EIOPA and ECB joint paper²⁶	EIOPA · ECB	2024	context	scheme design
Economic losses indicator²³	EEA	2025	supports	losses
Wildfire season 2025²²	JRC	2026	supports	fire
Nexus global baseline⁴⁹	GCRI	2026	context	series peers

Where the evidence agrees

Europe is warming faster than the global average¹⁵⁴²
Heat and fire exposure is rising across the continent¹⁵²²
Ageing increases vulnerability to heat¹⁴¹⁷

Where it is unsettled

How to compare inventory and target bases of net emissions¹²
How fast renewables can close the gap to 42.5%⁷
How many heat deaths each member state records, since the study is modelled¹⁷

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.back
4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back
5European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.back
6Council of the European Union (ed.), Updated nationally determined contribution of the European Union with a 2035 range of 66.25% to 72.5% net reduction against 1990. Submission to the UNFCCC, November 2025.back
45UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
11European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023.back
10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
28European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back
35European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
36European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
37European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back
44Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
38European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.back
12European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.back
42H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
46P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
47J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7 back
24European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate Risk Assessment, EEA Report 01/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.back
48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
18European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe’s environment 2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 29 September 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
20European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025.back
39European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025.back
40European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025.back
1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13Eurostat (ed.), “EU population continued to grow in 2025.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
34European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.back
22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the European Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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