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Compound summer of heat, drought and fire

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a prolonged heatwave and drought across several southern and central member states, with wildfire and a tight gas market in the same season
Analogues
summer 2024 heat deaths17; the 2025 fire season22
Interventions
none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → HLT

    prolonged heat raises deaths, mainly among older people

    summer 202417

  2. 2

    CLI → BIO

    wildfire burns forest and protected sites

    fires 202522

  3. 3

    CLI → WAT

    scarcity spreads across basins

    scarcity 202319

  4. 4

    WAT → ENE

    heat and low flows strain cooling and raise peak demand

    to be bound in 2027

  5. 5

    ENE → HLT

    tight supply while cooling is most needed

    to be bound in 2027

  6. 6

    HLT → FIN

    uninsured losses fall on public budgets

    losses 1980 to 202423

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01 would travel through European Union’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to healthProlonged heat raises deaths, mainly among older people. Analogue or source: summer 2024 [17].Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 1
02 Climate to biodiversityWildfire burns forest and protected sites. Analogue or source: fires 2025 [22].Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 2
03 Climate to waterScarcity spreads across basins. Analogue or source: scarcity 2023 [19].Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 3
04 Water to energyHeat and low flows strain cooling and raise peak demand. Analogue or source: to be bound in 2027.Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 4
05 Energy to healthTight supply while cooling is most needed. Analogue or source: to be bound in 2027.Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 5
06 Health to financeUninsured losses fall on public budgets. Analogue or source: losses 1980 to 2024 [23].Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: European Union 2026, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01 (2026); European Union 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
  2. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  4. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Compound summer of heat, drought and fire. In European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the European Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind European Union.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Heatwave

Cooling demand peaks the grid while rivers warm; heat stress fills hospitals and wilts crops.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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