Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a season of heat, drought and fire hit health, water, farming and power across several member states at once?

    INI-EU-CLI-01 · compound summer stress; first output: dependency graph for two southern regions.

  2. A-02

    How resilient is gas supply through the Russian phase-out, with storage, LNG and pipeline routes?

    INI-EU-ENE-02 · gas supply resilience; first output: route-and-storage register.

  3. A-03

    How exposed are food systems to fertiliser and feed import shocks?

    INI-EU-FOO-03 · food input exposure; first output: input dependence table.

  4. A-04

    How much heat-health surge capacity exists, and where do mosquito-borne diseases add load?

    INI-EU-HLT-04 · heat and new diseases; first output: surge baseline for five regions.

  5. A-05

    Where do flood, fire and storm losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?

    INI-EU-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member-state loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do shared river basins perform under drought and flood?

    INI-EU-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

  7. A-07

    How resilient are critical raw material and digital supply chains to concentrated supply?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

    EU capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-EU-CLI-01Compound summer stress across member statesInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-EU-ENE-02Gas supply resilience through the Russian phase-outInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-EU-FOO-03Food input exposureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-EU-HLT-04Heat, ageing and new diseasesInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-EU-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-EU-CLI-01aTwo-region compound stress graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-EU-2027-01Compound summer Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

European Union is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in the European Union from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-EU-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-EU-2027-01 · Compound summer Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-004 · importsINI-EU-ENE-02gas supply resiliencePUBLIC
TRD-005 · Russian gasINI-EU-ENE-02route-and-storage registerPUBLIC
HLT-007 · heatINI-EU-HLT-04heat and new diseasesPUBLIC
BIO-009 · fireINI-EU-CLI-01two-region graphPUBLIC
FOO-011 · farmsINI-EU-FOO-03input exposurePUBLIC
FIN-010 · lossesINI-EU-FIN-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-EU-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Fire danger and burnt areaJRC · EFFISin seasonRSK-EU-CLI-001
Drought informationJRC · European Drought ObservatoryperiodicWAT findings
Locally acquired arbovirus casesECDCweekly in seasonHLT-007
Gas storage fillingGas Infrastructure EuropedailyRSK-EU-ENE-002
Climate monitoringCopernicus Climate Change ServicemonthlyCLI findings
Energy statisticsEurostatperiodicENE findings
Greenhouse-gas inventoryEEAannualCLI-001

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-EU-001Record burnt area in 202522CORROBORATEDCLI · BIOrisk object RSK-EU-CLI-001
SIG-EU-002Locally acquired chikungunya in France and Italy, 202533CORROBORATEDHLT · CLIinitiative A-04
SIG-EU-003Russian gas at 12% of imports in 20259CORROBORATEDENE · TRDresearch question A-02

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 33European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the European Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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