- European Union 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Share of 1990 net emissions remaining, 2024 (target basis) | 100 − 37 | 63% |
| (2) | Points still to cut by 2030 | 55 − 37 | 18 points |
| (3) | Average cut needed a year, 2024 to 2030 | 18 ÷ 6 | 3.0 points |
| (4) | Renewables gap to the 2030 target | 42.5 − 25.2 | 17.3 points |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-EU-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent the European Union as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for member state or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-EU-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 49 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-EU-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net GHG emissions | 2024 | Apr 2026 | annual | annual |
| Energy import dependency | 2024 | Mar 2026 | annual | annual |
| Renewables share | 2024 | Dec 2025 | annual | annual |
| Population | 1 Jan 2026 | Jul 2026 | annual | annual |
| Heat-related deaths | summer 2024 | Sep 2025 | study | not scheduled |
| Water scarcity | 2023 | Nov 2025 | annual | annual |
| Burnt area | 2025 | Mar 2026 | annual | annual |
| Economic losses | 1980 to 2024 | Oct 2025 | annual | annual |
| Protected areas | 2022 | Sep 2025 | periodic | periodic |
| Farm managers | 2020 | Apr 2023 | census cycle | census cycle |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | GOOD | EU-wide drought extent |
| Energy | GOOD | gas storage depth and data-centre demand |
| Health | PARTIAL | care surge capacity; EU-only heat deaths |
| Water | PARTIAL | drought extent and basin-level use |
| Food | PARTIAL | fertiliser and feed import shares |
| Biodiversity | PARTIAL | habitat condition outside protected sites |
| Finance | PARTIAL | insured share of recent events |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the European Environment Agency for the European Commission under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. Annual, covering 1990 to 2024. Role: binds CLI-001 and the emission figures, with the domestic and target bases kept apart.
EVD-EU-001
GHG inventory 20261
Issued by the European Environment Agency. Annual update, published October 2025 for 1980 to 2024. Role: binds FIN-010 and the loss and insured-share figures.
EVD-EU-002
Economic losses indicator23
| Dimension | EVD-EU-001 | EVD-EU-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | all sectors and gases, net domestic | recorded events only |
| Timeliness | about 15 months after the year | about 10 months after the year |
| Revision | annual back-revision | dataset revised each update |
| Method transparency | published inventory document | published indicator method |
| External validation | UNFCCC review process | not stated in sources read |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CBD | Convention on Biological Diversity |
| ECB | European Central Bank |
| ECDC | European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control |
| EEA | European Environment Agency |
| EFFIS | European Forest Fire Information System |
| EIOPA | European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority |
| EU | European Union |
| EUCRA | European Climate Risk Assessment |
| GHG | greenhouse gas |
| JRC | Joint Research Centre |
| LNG | liquefied natural gas |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| UAA | utilised agricultural area |
| UNFCCC | United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
| WEI+ | Water Exploitation Index plus |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-EU-CLI-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Member state notes | atlas cards for every member state | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions, target basis
- Construct
- annual emissions minus removals, as defined for the 2030 target
- Unit
- percent change against 1990
- Scope
- EU territory plus a share of international aviation and navigation
- Source
- EEA Trends and projections2; Climate Law5
- Revision
- revised with each annual inventory submission
- Known limits
- the inventory shows 40% domestic against 37% on the target basis in 202412
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.back
- 5European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.back