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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables10 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Energy is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

ENE · Energy

Growth in global energy demand

1.3%

8 EJ; 2% in 2024.

Reported2025IEA2

ENE · Electricity

Renewables share of generation

33.8%

Coal 33.0%.

Reported2025Ember7

CLI · Climate

Energy-related CO2 emissions

>38Gt

up about 0.4%; a new record.

Reported2025IEA2

FIN · Finance

Global energy investment

3.4USD trillion

estimate; USD 2.6 trillion in 2015.

Reported2026eIEA1

HLT · Health

People without electricity

655million

and about 2.0 billion cook with polluting fuels.

Reported2024SDG 78

SYS · Cross-system

Brent crude, fourth-quarter average (forecast)

91USD a barrel

EIA September outlook assumes Middle East flows stay constrained.

Scenario2026EIA47

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through energy, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries energy risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATPumping, treatment and desalination need power; hydropower and cooling depend on flows. Volumes of energy-sector water use are not consolidated here.ENE ↔ WATInferred EQL 2
ENEDemand up 1.3%, electricity nearly 3%; solar led growth; renewables 33.8% of generation; fuel security under strain.the core systemReported EQL 5
FOOFertiliser and acid supply chains were hit by the Hormuz closure; cold chains and irrigation depend on power.ENE → FOOReported EQL 3
HLT655 million without electricity; about 2.0 billion cook with polluting fuels; heat raises cooling demand.ENE → HLTReported EQL 4
BIOMining, hydropower and land for supply chains press on nature; the evidence is not consolidated here.ENE → BIOExpert input EQL 2
CLIEnergy CO2 at a record above 38 Gt; weather swings demand for heating and cooling.ENE → CLIReported EQL 5
INFGrids, pipelines, ports and shipping lanes carry the system; the Iberian blackout shows how voltage control failures cascade.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 4
FINUSD 3.4 trillion of annual investment; price spikes and volatility from the 2026 fuel shock.ENE → FINReported EQL 4
DATGrid operators and regulators publish operational data; global coverage is uneven.DAT → ENEExpert input EQL 2
AICData centres about 415 TWh in 2024, 945 TWh by 2030 in the base case; clusters concentrate load.AIC → ENEReported EQL 4
MINRefining of energy minerals is concentrated; export controls have tripled in scope; copper deficit projected to 2035.MIN → ENEReported EQL 4
TRDSeaborne oil and LNG trade passes chokepoints; US LNG exports grow; sulphur, aluminium and helium were disrupted.ENE ↔ TRDReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on energy, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemenergy couples every other system83fuel shock under heatPARTIAL
GS-01Waterpumping, cooling and hydropower depend on each otherdrought and heatTHIN
GS-02Energydemand 1.3%, electricity nearly 3%2fuel shock; grid stressGOOD
GS-03Foodfertiliser and sulphur supply disrupted3fuel and acid price shockPARTIAL
GS-04Health655 million without electricity8cooling and clinic supplyGOOD
GS-05FinanceUSD 3.4 trillion of investment1price volatilityPARTIAL
GS-06Development2.0 billion cook with polluting fuels8affordability of accessGOOD
GS-07Climaterecord energy CO2 above 38 Gt2weather-driven demandGOOD
GS-08Disasterblackout of 28 April 20259cascading outagesPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructuregrids, pipelines and ports carry the system1equipment lead timesTHIN
GS-10Citieselectrified heat and transport raise loadpeak demandTHIN
GS-11Biodiversitymining and hydropower pressuresland and flow alterationTHIN
GS-12Earth observationweather and satellite data support operationscontinuity of missionsTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalcontrol systems of utilities35attacks on energy systemsTHIN
GS-14Policymarket design and security instruments34emergency measuresPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong energy-system modelling43grid and minerals dataPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 amending Regulations (EU) 2019/942 and (EU) 2019/943 on the electricity market design, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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