Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables9 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Energy is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The world enters 2027 with an energy system that is growing, electrifying and under strain at the same time. Global energy demand grew 1.3% in 2025 and electricity demand grew nearly 3%, more than twice as fast2. Solar supplied more than a quarter of the growth in energy demand, and renewables (33.8%) edged ahead of coal (33.0%) in global electricity generation for the first time27. Energy-related CO2 emissions still reached a record of more than 38 Gt2. Investment is estimated at USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, with about USD 1.6 trillion in electricity supply and infrastructure1. Access is unfinished: 655 million people lacked electricity in 2024 and about 2.0 billion relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking8. Security of supply is the sharpest pressure. The Middle East conflict that began on 28 February 2026 cut flows through the Strait of Hormuz, IEA members made a record emergency oil release, and EIA assumes flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026471112. Critical minerals add a second chokepoint: refining is concentrated and export controls have spread3. Data centres are a fast-growing load, about 415 TWh in 2024 and about 945 TWh by 2030 in the IEA base case4. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the energy baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Energy demand grew 1.3% in 2025 and electricity nearly 3%.2

    How fast is energy demand growing?Reported

  2. Solar led growth; renewables edged past coal in generation.27

    What is changing in supply?Reported

  3. No. Energy CO2 reached a record above 38 Gt, up about 0.4%.2

    Are emissions falling?Reported

  4. About USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, with electricity supply and infrastructure at USD 1.6 trillion.1

    Where is the money going?Reported

  5. 655 million without electricity and about 2.0 billion cooking with polluting fuels.8

    Who still lacks energy?Reported

  6. Hormuz flows were cut from March 2026 and remain constrained in the EIA outlook.4711

    How secure is fuel supply?Reported

  7. Refining is concentrated and export controls have tripled in scope.3

    Do minerals add risk?Reported

  8. A fuel shock that coincides with heat and grid stress. SCN-GS02-LNG-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

In 2024, 655 million people lacked electricity and about 2.0 billion people relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking.

Figure S.1People without services, 2024 (million)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Without electricity655
Relying on polluting cooking fuels2,000

Source: SDG 7 custodian agencies, Extended Report 20268.

The access gap is now concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, which holds 563 million of the people without electricity and 970 million of those without clean cooking. Affordability is a binding constraint: only about 22% of households without access can afford the monthly payments for a basic solar home system8.

S.4At a glance

1.3%

growth in energy demand, 20252

≈3%

growth in electricity demand, 20252

33.8%

renewables in global electricity7

3.4USD trillion

investment, 2026e1

655million

without electricity, 20248

945TWh

data centres by 2030, base case4

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading energy as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people energy risk arrives as a power cut, a higher bill or a cooking fire.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Investment is high, price volatility has risen and public finance for minerals is growing.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The energy system is well measured at the level of demand and generation and thinly measured at the level of equipment, constraints and water.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s energy system and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not an energy-security ranking, a forecast of prices, a supply recommendation or an assessment of any utility, regulator, producer or government. Energy policy, markets and operations rest with national authorities, system operators and companies.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 energy edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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