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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables13 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Energy is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Energy and water
    2. 8.2 Energy and food
    3. 8.3 Energy and health
    4. 8.4 Energy and nature
    5. 8.5 Energy security, grids and extremes
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Energy and water

Energy uses water and water uses energy. Hydropower and thermal cooling make power supply sensitive to drought and heat; pumping, treatment and desalination make water supply sensitive to power.

2025analogue

an early, strong monsoon cut coal power demand in India2

2.7%

hydropower share of primary energy, 202515

415TWh

data-centre electricity, 20244

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Hydropoweroutput follows river flows; strong hydro and an early monsoon cut fossil generation in India in 202572Reported
Thermal coolingcurtailment risk in heat and low flows; volumes not consolidated here2Inferred
Water for computecooling demand rising; volumes not consolidated4Expert input
Energy for waterpumping, treatment and desalination add load6Inferred

Couplings

  • WAT → ENE hydro and cooling
  • ENE → WAT pumping and desalination
  • AIC → WAT data-centre cooling

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • energy-sector water use by region
  • hydro exposure to multi-year drought

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.2Energy and food

Food depends on energy for fertiliser, irrigation, processing and cold chains. The 2026 Hormuz disruption showed that the link runs through sulphur and acid as well as fuel.

≈25%

of global sulphur supplied from the Middle East3

50%

of seaborne sulphur trade passes through Hormuz3

2026analogue

China curbed sulphuric acid exports in May 20263

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Fertiliser inputssulphur and sulphuric acid supply disrupted; Chinese acid export curbs from May 20263Reported
Fuel costshigher oil and gas prices pass through to farms47Inferred
Cold chainsdepend on reliable power; no consolidated series here8Expert input
Bioenergycompetes with food for land6Inferred

Couplings

  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • MIN → FOO acid and sulphur
  • TRD → ENE → FOO price transmission

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fertiliser price pass-through by region
  • cold-chain power reliability

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.3Energy and health

Energy access shapes health: clean cooking, clinic power, cooling and refrigeration. Outages and heat make the link visible.

655million

without electricity, 20248

2.0billion

cooking with polluting fuels, 20248

449million

served by off-grid solar tiers 1 and 28

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Electricity access92% of people; 86% of the unserved are in Sub-Saharan Africa8Reported
Clean cooking75% have access; 1.8 billion projected to lack it in 20308Reported
Cooling demandlower cooling demand cut growth in 2025 in India and Southeast Asia2Reported
Clinic powernot consolidated here8Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE → HLT access and cooking
  • CLI → ENE → HLT heat and outage
  • AIC → ENE → HLT local grid load

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • power reliability in health facilities
  • heat-wave effects on supply

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.4Energy and nature

Energy transitions need minerals, land and water, and energy emissions still press on climate. Nature is the unmeasured side of the energy ledger in this edition.

>38Gt

energy-related CO2, 20252

3Gt

CO2 avoided each year by clean technology since 20192

35EJ

fossil demand avoided in 2025 by clean technology2

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Emissionsrecord above 38 Gt in 2025, up about 0.4%2Reported
Miningcopper, lithium, cobalt and rare-earth supply growing; effects on land and water not consolidated3Expert input
Hydropoweralters river flows; not consolidated here15Inferred
Mitigation pathwaysassessed in the IPCC literature19Inferred

Couplings

  • ENE → BIO mining and land
  • ENE → CLI emissions
  • MIN → BIO extraction

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ecosystem effects of mineral extraction
  • land use of energy supply

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.5Energy security, grids and extremes

Security of supply now spans fuels, minerals and grids. Chokepoints, concentrated refining and voltage control failures are the three channels the 2025 and 2026 evidence shows.

<10%

of pre-conflict Hormuz export volume at the low point, March 202612

72%

average top-refiner share, key minerals, 20253

20March 2026

ENTSO-E final report on the Iberian blackout9

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Fuel chokepointsHormuz flows cut from March 2026; EIA assumes constraint through the fourth quarter4711Reported
LNGRas Laffan offline since early March 202613Reported
Mineralsrefining concentration rising; export controls tripled in scope3Reported
Grid stabilityblackout from interacting factors9Reported

Couplings

  • TRD → ENE chokepoints
  • MIN → ENE equipment
  • INF → ENE grid stability

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fuel-market position after evidence close
  • grid equipment lead times

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6IEA (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025, launch presentation, Paris, 12 November 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shukla, P.R. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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