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Energy is where the systems meet

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

6 min read2 figures2 tables11 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Energy is where the systems meet
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is energy risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry energy shocks into other systems?
  • Which energy capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five coupling chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Energy is usually reported as a sector: fuels, power, prices. The 2026 evidence reads it as the medium through which almost every other system’s risk travels. Water pumping and cooling, fertiliser and cold chains, clinics and cooking, and the digital economy all rest on it834.

The supply side is changing at the margin. Solar was the largest source of growth in energy demand in 2025, and renewables edged past coal in global generation27. Yet fossil fuels still supplied about 86% of primary energy15, and energy-related CO2 reached a record above 38 Gt2.

Security is the sharpest pressure. After the conflict began on 28 February 2026, flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply, IEA members made a record emergency oil release and EIA assumes flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter471112. The same shock reached LNG, aluminium and sulphur markets313.

Electricity is the common thread. It grew more than twice as fast as energy demand in 20252, data centres are an increasing share of it4, and the grids that carry it fail in ways that are only now understood, as the Iberian blackout shows9. Access remains unfinished for 655 million people8.

Figure 1.1How far is the world from universal energy access? People without services, 2024 (million)

The cooking gap is about three times the electricity gap. Both are concentrated in the same places, so they compound each other’s effects on health and time use8.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Polluting cooking fuels2000
Without electricity655

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

563million

without electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa8

970million

cooking with polluting fuels in Sub-Saharan Africa8

22%

of unserved households can afford a basic solar home system8

300million

Mission 300 target for Africa by 20308

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The energy-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their energy content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
hydro · cooling water		MODERATE
irrigation pumping load		WEAK
supply and treatment		MODERATE
reservoir flows
ENE EnergySTRONG
pumping · treatment · desalination		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
clean cooking · clinics · cooling		MODERATE
mining · land use
FOO FoodWEAK
withdrawals		MODERATE
bioenergy · diesel pumping		·WEAK
nutrition		MODERATE
land for biofuel
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		WEAK
labour		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversityMODERATE
catchments		MODERATE
biomass · hydrology		WEAK
pollination		WEAK
zoonoses		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → ENE → HLT

    A heat wave raises cooling demand while supply is short; clinics and homes lose power.

    Inferred 2022 Europe and Asia heat; 2025 blackout9

  2. 02

    ENE → FOO

    Fuel, fertiliser and acid price shocks reach farms and food prices.

    Reported 2026 sulphur and fertiliser disruption3

  3. 03

    MIN → ENE

    Export controls on minerals slow power equipment and batteries.

    Reported 2025 rare-earth and graphite controls3

  4. 04

    TRD → ENE → FIN

    A chokepoint closure lifts prices and strains importers’ budgets.

    Reported 2026 Hormuz closure4711

  5. 05

    AIC → ENE

    Clustered data-centre load tightens local grids.

    Reported US growth in 202524

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and ENEWater to energy: hydro · cooling waterEnergy to water: pumping · treatment · desalination
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Energy is where the systems meet. In Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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