- Global Energy 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The energy baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Energy is where the systems meet
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 energy readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading energy as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system. Demand and electrification are rising, supply is changing fastest at the margin, and security of supply is the sharpest pressure. Evidence is strongest for demand and generation, and weakest for grid constraints and energy-sector water use.
ENE-001 · ENE-003 · GOV-008 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people energy risk arrives as a power cut, a higher bill or a cooking fire. The baseline asks that public debate treat energy as shared infrastructure for health, food and water, and keep the 655 million without electricity in view alongside the security story.
HLT-007 · GOV-008 · ENE-001
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Investment is high, price volatility has risen and public finance for minerals is growing13. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-005 · MIN-010
NEXUS
Synthesis
The energy system is well measured at the level of demand and generation and thinly measured at the level of equipment, constraints and water. The 2027 programme should bind regional grid evidence, test the fuel shock under heat, and map mineral chokepoints before they become delays.
SYS-012 · E-01 · E-04
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for energy. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports sector desks | energy chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability | sector editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Every energy shock this decade has been a water event, a food event and a health event at once. Treating energy as a utility market understates how it carries risk between systems. This edition asks where an energy shock goes next.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Energy is a coupling, not a sector
The 2026 disruption began in oil and LNG and reached aluminium, sulphur and helium within weeks. Security of supply now spans fuels, minerals and equipment. Measuring the whole chain is the first adaptation.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Security is wider than oil
Electricity grew more than twice as fast as energy demand. Risk moves with it: from fuel tankers to voltage control, equipment queues and data-centre clusters. The Iberian blackout is an early lesson, not a verdict on any technology.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Electrification moves the risk to the grid
The 655 million without electricity and the 2.0 billion cooking with polluting fuels sit outside most security debates. Closing the gaps is not separate from resilience; it is part of it.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Access is the unfinished half
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 energy readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Energy risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Stocktake decision (tripling renewables, transition away from fossil fuels)20 | UNFCCC | global | ADOPTED 2023 | targets |
| Critical Raw Materials Act33 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | minerals |
| Electricity market design regulation34 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | markets |
| Network code on electricity cybersecurity35 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | cyber |
| ISO 50001 energy management36 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | efficiency |
| IEC 62443 control-system security37 | IEC | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | cyber |
| IEA collective action on emergency oil stocks12 | IEA members | 32 members | USED MARCH 2026 | oil security |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers energy assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the world’s energy system and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- agency flagships; regulator and operator reports; peer-reviewed energy-system literature; statistics
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis et al.43 | journal article | 2018 | framework | hard-to-decarbonise sectors |
| Creutzig et al.44 | journal article | 2018 | context | demand-side options |
| Ueckerdt et al.45 | journal article | 2021 | context | electro-fuels |
| Zscheischler et al.46 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| IPCC AR6 Working Group III19 | assessment | 2022 | context | mitigation pathways |
| Net Zero Roadmap, 2023 update21 | assessment | 2023 | context | pathway benchmark |
| UNEP Emissions Gap Report31 | assessment | 2025 | context | emissions trajectory |
| Production Gap Report32 | assessment | 2023 | context | fossil supply plans |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Energy Review 20262 | IEA | 2026 | supports | demand, emissions |
| World Energy Investment 20261 | IEA | 2026 | supports | investment |
| Global Critical Minerals Outlook 20263 | IEA | 2026 | supports | minerals |
| Energy and AI4 | IEA | 2025 | supports | data centres |
| World Energy Outlook 20256 | IEA | 2025 | context | scenarios |
| Renewables 202539 | IEA | 2025 | context | capacity outlook |
| Global Hydrogen Review 202540 | IEA | 2025 | context | low-emissions fuels |
| Global Methane Tracker 202541 | IEA | 2025 | context | methane from energy |
| Energy Technology Perspectives 202442 | IEA | 2024 | context | clean-tech supply chains |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDG Extended Report, Goal 78 | UN DESA | 2026 | supports | access |
| Global Electricity Review 20267 | Ember | 2026 | supports | generation |
| Statistical Review 202615 | Energy Institute | 2026 | context | primary energy |
| Renewable capacity statistics14 | IRENA | 2026 | context | capacity |
| Short-Term Energy Outlook47 | EIA | 2026 | supports | prices and flows |
| Electricity Mid-Year Update 202616 | IEA | 2026 | context | demand outlook |
| World Energy Transitions Outlook 202427 | IRENA | 2024 | context | transition pathway |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iberian blackout final report9 | ENTSO-E | 2026 | supports | grid failure |
| Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions22 | IEA | 2023 | context | grid needs |
| Long-Term Reliability Assessment30 | NERC | 2025 | context | adequacy |
| Gas Market Report513 | IEA | 2025 to 2026 | supports | LNG |
| Oil Market Report11 | IEA | 2026 | supports | oil flows |
| Critical Raw Materials Act33 | European Union | 2024 | context | minerals policy |
| US data centre energy report18 | Berkeley Lab | 2024 | context | load growth |
| Oil 202525 and Electricity 202526 | IEA | 2025 | context | outlooks |
| Nuclear power estimates to 205029 | IAEA | 2025 | context | nuclear |
| Climate Resilience for Energy Security38 | IEA | 2022 | context | resilience |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Outcome of the first global stocktake, decision 1/CMA.5 (December 2023; tripling renewable capacity and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems), cited from memory. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 amending Regulations (EU) 2019/942 and (EU) 2019/943 on the electricity market design, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems: requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEC 62443 series, Security for industrial automation and control systems. International Electrotechnical Commission, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Tracking COP28 outcomes: tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creutzig, F. et al., Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change, Nature Climate Change 8, 260 to 263, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ueckerdt, F. et al., Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation, Nature Climate Change 11, 384 to 393, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shukla, P.R. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach, 2023 update. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G, IISD and UNEP (eds.), The Production Gap Report 2023. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6IEA (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025, launch presentation, Paris, 12 November 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Hydrogen Review 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Methane Tracker 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Technology Perspectives 2024. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 (23 July 2026; demand growth 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 in search summaries); no figure from it is used in a finding. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: NERC (ed.), Long-Term Reliability Assessment, 2025 edition, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Atlanta, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, December 2024; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2027. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Climate Resilience for Energy Security. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back