Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the energy baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Energy is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Energy
    3. 2.3 Climate forcing
    4. 2.4 Finance
    5. 2.5 AIC
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Governance
    8. 2.8 Minerals
    9. 2.9 Infrastructure
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

In 2024, 655 million people lacked electricity and about 2.0 billion people relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking.

Figure 2.1People without services, 2024 (million)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Without electricity655
Relying on polluting cooking fuels2,000

Source: SDG 7 custodian agencies, Extended Report 20268.

Implication

The access gap is now concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, which holds 563 million of the people without electricity and 970 million of those without clean cooking. Affordability is a binding constraint: only about 22% of households without access can afford the monthly payments for a basic solar home system8.

What would move it

The next SDG 7 report, the pace of Mission 300 connections and the affordability of off-grid solar would each move this finding.

2.2Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001

    Global energy demand grew 1.3% (8 EJ) in 2025, down from 2% in 2024, and electricity demand grew nearly 3%, more than twice as fast.215

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

    Solar PV met more than 25% of the growth in global energy demand in 2025, and low-emissions sources together met nearly 60%.2

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Renewables supplied 33.8% of global electricity in 2025 and coal 33.0%; fossil generation fell 38 TWh, the first annual fall since 2020.7

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009

    Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex has been offline since early March 2026, removing nearly a fifth of global LNG supply, after a build-out of about 300 bcm a year of new LNG capacity was expected by 2030.513

2.3Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

    Energy-related CO2 emissions rose about 0.4% in 2025 to a record of more than 38 Gt.215

2.4Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

    Global energy investment is estimated at USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015, with electricity supply and infrastructure at about USD 1.6 trillion.117

2.5AIC

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006

    Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global electricity, and the IEA base case reaches about 945 TWh by 2030.42

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

    655 million people lacked electricity in 2024 and about 2.0 billion relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking.8

2.7Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

    Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply after 28 February 2026; IEA members released a record 400 million barrels, and EIA assumes flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026.471112

2.8Minerals

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010

    The top refining country’s average share of key energy minerals rose to 72% in 2025 from 70% in 2023, excluding rare earths, and the mineral tariff codes under Chinese export controls tripled since 2023.3

2.9Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011

    The Iberian blackout of 28 April 2025 came from interacting factors, including voltage control gaps, oscillations and generator disconnections, according to the ENTSO-E final report of 20 March 2026.9

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a fuel supply shock that coincides with a hot, high-demand season and a stressed grid. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, full report (clean energy about USD 2.2 trillion and fossil fuels about USD 1.2 trillion in search summaries). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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