Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 energy agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 energy edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Energy is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. E-01

    How would a fuel supply shock that coincides with a hot season and grid stress travel through power, food and health at once?

    INI-GS02-FSH-01 · fuel shock under heat; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

  2. E-02

    Where do grid equipment and interconnection constraints limit the connection of new supply and load?

    INI-GS02-GRD-02 · grid constraints; first output: constraint register by region.

  3. E-03

    How much water do energy supply and data centres need by 2030, and where?

    INI-GS02-WEN-03 · water for energy and compute; first output: regional demand estimates.

  4. E-04

    Which critical minerals and refining steps are single points of failure for power equipment?

    INI-GS02-MIN-04 · mineral chokepoints; first output: dependence map.

  5. E-05

    Where do energy access gaps coincide with weak service quality, and what is the cost of closing them?

    INI-GS02-ACC-05 · access and service quality; first output: service-tier table.

  6. E-06

    Which shared grids and fuel routes lack operational contingency arrangements?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.

  7. E-07

    How do heat waves change peak demand and supply together?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. E-08

    Which energy capabilities have been tested in real shortfalls, and which are only planned?

    Energy capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 energy portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GS02-FSH-01Fuel shock under heatInitiativeE-01PROPOSED
INI-GS02-GRD-02Grid and interconnection constraintsInitiativeE-02PROPOSED
INI-GS02-WEN-03Water for energy and computeInitiativeE-03PROPOSED
INI-GS02-MIN-04Mineral chokepointsInitiativeE-04PROPOSED
INI-GS02-ACC-05Access and service qualityInitiativeE-05PROPOSED
MSN-GS02-2027-01Fuel shock under heat Universe missionMissionE-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The energy edition reads national energy chapters, regional grid and fuel evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global energy chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National energy chapters

    energy system of each national edition

    DRAFTED · further national baselines

  2. 02

    Grid and fuel evidence

    shared grids, pipelines and sea routes

    PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Energy sector model

    the global energy system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Global and strategic links

    GLB · SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems · SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Global Energy Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GS02-2027-01 · Fuel shock under heat Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
ENE-001 · demandpublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-003 · electricityINI-GS02-GRD-02grid constraintsPUBLIC
AIC-006 · data centresINI-GS02-WEN-03water for energy and computePUBLIC
HLT-007 · accessINI-GS02-ACC-05access and service qualityPUBLIC
GOV-008 · fuel flowsINI-GS02-FSH-01 · key F reviewfuel shock under heatPUBLIC
MIN-010 · mineralsINI-GS02-MIN-04mineral chokepointsPUBLIC
INF-011 · grid failureregional consortiagrid constraint overlayPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GS02-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Electricity data and the Global Electricity ReviewEmberannualENE-003
Oil and gas market reportsIEAmonthly and quarterlyGOV-008
Short-Term Energy OutlookUS Energy Information AdministrationmonthlyGOV-008
Transparency platform for the continental gridENTSO-EhourlyINF-011
Critical minerals outlookIEAannualMIN-010
SDG 7 tracking databaseWorld Bank, IEA, IRENA, UNSD, WHOannualHLT-007
Renewable capacity statisticsIRENAannualENE-002

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GS02-001Oil flows through Hormuz fell from March 20264711CORROBORATEDENE · FINresearch question E-01
SIG-GS02-002Mineral export controls tripled in scope since 20233CORROBORATEDMIN · ENEinitiative E-04
SIG-GS02-003Data-centre load growth in clusters4PARTIALAIC · ENEresearch question E-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

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