Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four energy risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table16 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Energy is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS02-ENE-001

    Seaborne oil and LNG chokepoint disruption

    Driver
    conflict-related closure or damage affecting Hormuz flows and Qatari LNG1113
    Exposure
    importing economies, refiners, power systems burning gas or oil
    Vulnerability
    thin spare capacity; limited bypass routes
    Capacity
    emergency stocks; bypass pipelines; demand response12
    Cascade
    ENE → FIN, FOO, HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS02-INF-002

    Power-system stability with high inverter-based supply

    Driver
    rapid change in the generation mix and voltage control gaps9
    Exposure
    synchronous grids and large cities
    Vulnerability
    uneven stabilisation capability; coordination gaps
    Capacity
    reactive power requirements; grid-forming equipment; operator coordination
    Cascade
    ENE → HLT, WAT, INF
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS02-MIN-003

    Critical-mineral export controls and refining concentration

    Driver
    export controls and concentrated refining3
    Exposure
    batteries, grid equipment, magnets, solar supply chains
    Vulnerability
    single dominant refiners; thin stockpiles
    Capacity
    diversification projects; strategic stockpiles; recycling3
    Cascade
    MIN → ENE, INF
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS02-AIC-004

    Concentrated data-centre load on local grids

    Driver
    rapid growth of AI and digital services4
    Exposure
    local grids in a few clusters; nearly half of US capacity sits in five clusters4
    Vulnerability
    long lead times for connections and equipment
    Capacity
    flexible load; on-site supply; planning and tariffs
    Cascade
    AIC → ENE → FIN, HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for energy at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSefficiency and reliability standards widespread; implementation uneven2436
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEmarket and operational data strong in advanced grids; thin elsewhere79
Early warningEXISTSweather-linked demand forecasts and grid alerts; fuel-market early warning is partial
Preparedness and planningEXISTSadequacy assessments published for several grids30
Redundancy and reservesDEMONSTRATEDrecord coordinated oil stock release in March 202612
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDemergency measures and demand response used in 2022 and 202612
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSpriority supply for hospitals and water works in many systems; testing uneven
RecoveryDEMONSTRATEDIberian system restored after the 2025 blackout; reasons studied in a final report9
AdaptationEXISTSstorage, flexibility and diversified supply growing27
Social protectionLISTEDenergy support for poor households documented but not consolidated
Finance and insuranceEXISTSinvestment of USD 3.4 trillion; public finance for minerals rising13
Institutional coordinationEXISTSIEA collective action; network codes in the EU1235
Technical infrastructureEXISTSgrids ageing in places; equipment lead times a constraint22
WorkforceLISTEDskills gaps reported across the energy sector23
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong energy-system science; data access uneven43
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Efficiency 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems: requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: NERC (ed.), Long-Term Reliability Assessment, 2025 edition, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Atlanta, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Employment 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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