- Global Energy 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Energy is where the systems meet
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Electricity growth against energy growth, 2025 | ≈3 ÷ 1.3 | ≈2.3 times |
| (2) | Share of 2025 growth in energy demand from solar (lower bound) | reported as more than 25% | more than 25% |
| (3) | Renewables lead over coal in generation, 2025 | 10,730 − 10,476 TWh | 254 TWh |
| (4) | Growth in data-centre electricity, 2024 to 2030, base case | 945 ÷ 415 | ≈2.3 times |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Energy Sector Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-GS02-ENERGY · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent the global energy system and its couplings to water, food, health and biodiversity
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
4strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
9weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 47 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 energy annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Energy Sector Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy demand and emissions | 2025 | May 2026 revised | annual | next Global Energy Review |
| Electricity generation shares | 2025 | 2026 | annual | next Electricity Review |
| Investment estimate | 2026e | May 2026 | annual | next investment report |
| Access to electricity and cooking | 2024 | 2026 | annual | next SDG 7 report |
| Data-centre electricity | 2024 | 2025 | one-off | next IEA update |
| Hormuz oil flows | 2026 | Sep 2026 | monthly | monthly |
| LNG capacity and outage | 2025 to 2026 | Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 | quarterly | next Gas Market Report |
| Critical minerals refining | 2025 | revised Jul 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| Primary energy | 2025 | Jun 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| Iberian blackout causes | 2025 | Mar 2026 | one-off | follow-up reports |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Demand and supply | GOOD | regional drivers of growth |
| Electricity | GOOD | grid-level constraints |
| Fuel markets | PARTIAL | position after evidence close |
| Minerals | GOOD | equipment-level dependence |
| Access | GOOD | service quality and affordability |
| Investment | PARTIAL | split by technology and region |
| Water for energy | THIN | volumes by region and technology |
| Resilience | PARTIAL | tested capabilities beyond oil stocks |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel-market position on 1 November 2026 | IEA Oil Market Report for October and November 202611; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook of November | releases after the evidence close and not retrieved; the EIA September outlook47 is the baseline source; the October outlook10 is post-close, context only |
| Hormuz flow volumes before and during the conflict, from a primary document | IEA Oil Market Reports1112 | the report was not opened; only search summaries were read |
| Clean and fossil split of the 2026 investment estimate | IEA World Energy Investment 2026 full report17 | report page not accessible; the launch presentation was opened without the split |
| Capacity added in 2025, on one basis | IEA, IRENA and Ember series2147 | the series use different methods; not reconciled in this edition |
| Transformer, cable and interconnection-queue constraints | IEA grids work22; national operators | not retrieved; figures in memory are not used |
| Energy-sector water use by region | IEA and national statistics offices | no consolidated global series found at evidence close |
| Heat-wave effects on power systems in 2026 | operator reports; weather services | not retrieved |
| Cyber and physical incidents on energy infrastructure | operators and national authorities | incident data are not published on a common basis |
| Winter gas storage at the start of the heating season | Gas Infrastructure Europe; operators | not retrieved |
| Energy support for poor households, by country | national ministries; World Bank | not consolidated; capability rung stays LISTED |
| Energy employment and skills gap | IEA World Energy Employment 202523 | report not opened; no figure used |
| Data-centre electricity by country after 2024 | IEA, national regulators, operators | later series use a different baseline; not mixed with the 415 TWh figure |
| Capability rungs beyond emergency stocks | operators, regulators, ministries | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the International Energy Agency (revised May 2026) from energy balances, market data and technology tracking. Annual. Role: binds ENE-001, ENE-002 and CLI-004.
EVD-GS02-001
IEA Global Energy Review 20262
Compiled by UN DESA from custodian storylines as of 30 April 2026. Annual. Role: binds HLT-007 and the access tiles. Figures differ slightly from the main report text.
EVD-GS02-002
SDG 7 Extended Report 20268
| Dimension | EVD-GS02-001 | EVD-GS02-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | all fuels and technologies; modelled where national data are missing | country coverage uneven; cooking estimate is a range |
| Timeliness | about 5 months after the year | about 16 months after the year |
| Revision | revised version issued May 2026 | storylines updated up to the report date |
| Method transparency | methodology published | indicator metadata published |
| External validation | compared with national statistics | custodian review |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | energy, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| bcm | billion cubic metres |
| EJ | exajoule |
| ENTSO-E | European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity |
| GW | gigawatt |
| IEA | International Energy Agency |
| IRENA | International Renewable Energy Agency |
| LNG | liquefied natural gas |
| Mtpa | million tonnes per annum |
| SDG 7 | Sustainable Development Goal 7: affordable and clean energy |
| STEO | Short-Term Energy Outlook |
| TWh | terawatt-hour |
| TFEC | total final energy consumption |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-GS02-LNG-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Grid and route notes | cards for the major shared grids and fuel routes | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: access to electricity
- Construct
- share and number of people living in households with access to electricity
- Unit
- share and number of people
- Method
- custodian indicator based on national surveys and models
- Source
- SDG 7 Extended Report 20268
- Uncertainty
- modelled where survey data are missing
- Known limits
- binary measure; does not capture reliability, capacity or affordability
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10POST-CLOSE, context only: US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; post-close, context only, supports no baseline claim). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, full report (clean energy about USD 2.2 trillion and fossil fuels about USD 1.2 trillion in search summaries). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Employment 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back