Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Technology rests on a few physical inputs
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Local grid constraint that overlaps a chip or mineral supply constraint
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- A.1 Methods
- A.2 Model card, Technology Infrastructure Model v0
- A.3 The baseline evidence cut
- A.4 Evidence age and coverage
- A.5 Evidence cards, two anchor sources
- A.6 Publication acceptance record
- A.7 Status words
- A.8 How the edition is made, released and corrected
- A.9 Glossary and abbreviations
- A.10 Technical annex
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | IEA Base Case 2030 against 2024 use | 945 ÷ 415 | ≈ 2.3 times |
| (2) | Rise in global chip sales, 2024 to 2025 (SIA series) | 791.7 − 630.5 | = USD 161.2 billion |
| (3) | EU chip share gap to target in 2030 | 20 − 11.7 | = 8.3 percentage points |
| (4) | Combined share of data-centre use, US, China, Europe | 45 + 25 + 15 | ≈ 85% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Technology Infrastructure Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-SR13-STRATTECH · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent strategic technology infrastructure as a dependent stack and the mechanisms by which strain spreads between compute, chips, power, minerals and connectivity
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
5strong
documented within one season
3moderate
documented, buffered
12weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-STRATEGIC-STRATTECH-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 43 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 strategic technology infrastructure annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Technology Infrastructure Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data centre load | 2024 | Apr 2025 | one-off | next IEA update |
| US electricity growth | 2025 | May 2026 | annual | next review |
| Refining concentration | 2025 | Jul 2026 | annual | next outlook |
| Chip sales | 2025 | Feb to Mar 2026 | quarterly | next forecast |
| EU chip target | 2022 to 2030 | Apr 2025 | one-off | mid-term review |
| US chip funding | 2022 | 2026 | rolling | next award notice |
| Enterprise cloud and AI use | 2025 | 2025 | annual | 2026 survey |
| Irish data centre load | 2024 | Jun 2025 | annual | next CSO release |
| Private AI investment | 2025 | 2026 | annual | next AI Index |
| Connectivity | 2026 | Nov 2026 | annual | next ITU release |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Compute load | GOOD | load by site and region |
| Power | PARTIAL | connection waiting times |
| Chips | PARTIAL | capacity by region |
| Minerals | PARTIAL | rare earth and heavy-mineral shares |
| Cloud | THIN | provider concentration |
| Connectivity | PARTIAL | quality and resilience of links |
| Policy and finance | PARTIAL | delivery against targets |
| Orbital infrastructure | THIN | satellite and timing dependence |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Chip manufacturing capacity by region on a common basis | industry associations and national statistics | no consolidated series opened; sales are bound, capacity is not |
| Cloud market concentration by region | market analysts26 | the analyst page returned not found; no provider shares are used |
| Grid connection waiting times for large loads | system operators and regulators | not retrieved; no comparable series |
| AI compute by country beyond tracked sites | Epoch AI data centre tracker14 | the tracker estimates it covers about 45% of deployed AI compute, with a wide interval |
| Sovereign cloud and local hosting adoption | national statistics and market analysts | no common definition found |
| Rare earth mine and refining shares from the primary tables | USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 202624 | the report returned an access error; the IEA outlook excludes rare earths from its 72% average |
| US data-centre electricity use in the national laboratory report | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory23 | the report page returned an access error |
| Orbital infrastructure counts and debris | ESA Space Environment Report25 | the report page returned an access error |
| EU investment amounts for AI Factories and gigafactories | EuroHPC Joint Undertaking15 | the page read gives no amounts and lists 18 or 19 AI Factories |
| Data centre definition used by national statistics | national statistics offices12 | the release page read gives no definition |
| Effect of export measures on chip and mineral supply | agencies and independent studies28 | the rule page was not opened; no outcome data found |
| Status of national NIS2 transposition | European Commission, Member States19 | the status page was not opened |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the International Energy Agency. One-off special report. Role: binds AIC-001 and AIC-002. Coverage: global with US, China and Europe splits. The full report was read.
EVD-SR13-001
IEA Energy and AI1
Issued by the International Energy Agency. Annual. Role: binds MIN-005. Coverage: energy and strategic minerals. The full report was read; it gives 2020 and 2023 as the earlier base for the same 72% figure.
EVD-SR13-002
IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 20263
| Dimension | EVD-SR13-001 | EVD-SR13-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | projection cases published; site-level data limited | refining shares for many minerals; rare earths excluded from the average |
| Timeliness | about 12 months before evidence close | about 3 months before evidence close |
| Revision | special report; later outlooks update it | revised version of July 2026 |
| Method transparency | cases and assumptions stated | country shares by mineral shown |
| External validation | industry expectations for server shipments | IEA data and expert review |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| AI | artificial intelligence |
| CER | Critical Entities Resilience |
| CRA | Cyber Resilience Act |
| CSF | Cybersecurity Framework |
| ECA | European Court of Auditors |
| GW | gigawatt |
| IEA | International Energy Agency |
| ITU | International Telecommunication Union |
| NIS2 | second Network and Information Security Directive |
| SIA | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| TWh | terawatt hour |
| WSTS | World Semiconductor Trade Statistics |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-SR13-GRID-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Regional notes | regional technology infrastructure cards | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: data centre electricity use
- Construct
- electricity consumed by facilities that house servers, storage and network equipment
- Unit
- terawatt hours per year
- Method
- IEA estimate built on server shipments and efficiency assumptions; national statistics use meter data
- Source
- IEA Energy and AI1; CSO Ireland12
- Uncertainty
- definitions of a data centre differ between sources
- Known limits
- does not record the service delivered or the site’s grid constraint
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Synergy Research Group (ed.), cloud infrastructure market share series, cited as the intended source of provider shares; the article address returned not found and no figure is used. Synergy Research Group, Reno. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14POST-CLOSE, context only: Epoch AI (ed.), Frontier data centres (tracker page updated 1 November 2026; 96 sites, 15.1 GW of IT power; estimated coverage of about 45% of deployed AI compute). Epoch AI. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths chapter, cited as the primary table for mine and refining shares; the file returned an access error and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (ed.), 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, December 2024, cited from memory; no figure used; the page returned an access error. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025, cited for orbital infrastructure context; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), AI Factories (programme page; states 19 AI Factories and 13 antennas while the listing shows 18 entries; no amounts). EuroHPC Joint Undertaking, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12Central Statistics Office (ed.), Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2024 (release of 10 June 2025; 22% of metered electricity in 2024, 21% in 2023, 5% in 2015). CSO, Cork. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, rescission of the 2025 AI diffusion export measure, May 2025, cited from memory; the Federal Register page redirected to an access gate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive (policy page; Directive (EU) 2022/2555; transposition deadline 17 October 2024). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4WSTS (ed.), Global Semiconductor Market grows 26% in 2025 to USD 796 billion (release page; sales of USD 795.6 billion, up 26.2%). World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Dec 2025 data, release dated March 2026 by file name. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Eurostat (ed.), Cloud computing: statistics on the use by enterprises (Statistics Explained; 52.74% of EU enterprises with 10 or more persons used paid cloud services in 2025). Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10Eurostat (ed.), Use of artificial intelligence in enterprises (Statistics Explained; 19.95% of EU enterprises with 10 or more persons in 2025; large enterprises 55.03%). Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back