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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-STRATEGIC-STRATTECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Technology rests on a few physical inputs
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Local grid constraint that overlaps a chip or mineral supply constraint
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

AIC · Compute load

Data centre electricity use

415TWh

1.5% of global electricity, 2024.

Reported2024IEA1

ENE · Power

Share of US electricity growth from data centres

50%

about half of growth in 2025.

Reported2025IEA2

MIN · Minerals

Average top-refiner share, excluding rare earths

72%

up from 70% in an earlier year; the report gives two base years.

Reported2025IEA3

TRD · Chips

Global semiconductor sales

795.6USD billion

up 26.2% on 2024.

Reported2025WSTS4

INF · Local grid

Data centre share of Irish metered electricity

22%

up from 5% in 2015.

Reported2024CSO12

DAT · Cloud use

EU enterprises buying cloud services

52.74%

enterprises with 10 or more staff.

Reported2025Eurostat9

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through strategic technology infrastructure, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries strategic technology infrastructure risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCooling and fabrication use water; no consolidated series opened here.WAT → AICExpert input EQL 2
ENEData centres used about 415 TWh in 2024 and made up half of US electricity growth in 2025.AIC → ENEReported EQL 4
FOOCold chains and logistics run on networks and power; no series here.INF → FOOExpert input EQL 2
HLTHospitals depend on power and connectivity; not consolidated here.ENE → HLTInferred EQL 2
BIOSiting and land-use pressure from large sites; not consolidated here.AIC → BIOExpert input EQL 2
CLIHeat and floods stress grids and facilities; hazard series sit in sibling editions.CLI → INFInferred EQL 2
INFThe core system: data centres took 22% of Ireland’s metered electricity in 2024.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINUSD 50 billion of US chip funding; USD 285.88 billion of US private AI investment in 2025.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
DAT52.74% of EU enterprises bought cloud services in 2025; provider concentration not bound.DAT ↔ INFReported EQL 4
AICData-centre use reaches about 945 TWh by 2030 in the IEA Base Case.AIC → ENEReported EQL 4
MINThe average top-refiner share was 72% in 2025, excluding rare earths.MIN → TRDReported EQL 3
TRDChip sales were USD 795.6 billion in 2025, up 26.2%.TRD → AICReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on strategic technology infrastructure, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemtechnology rests on power, chips and minerals134local grid and supply overlapPARTIAL
GS-01Watercooling and fabrication demanddrought at a large siteTHIN
GS-02Energyhalf of US electricity growth in 20252connection delaysGOOD
GS-03Food and agrifoodcold chains depend on networksoutage during heatTHIN
GS-04Healthhospitals depend on connectivityloss of power and linksTHIN
GS-05Finance and economyUSD 285.88 billion of US private AI investment11capital concentrationPARTIAL
GS-06Development2 billion people offline13access gapPARTIAL
GS-07Climateheat and floods stress facilitiesconcurrent hazardsTHIN
GS-08Disasterrecovery of data and networks after hazardsmulti-site lossTHIN
GS-09Infrastructure22% of Irish metered electricity12grid saturationGOOD
GS-10Citiesclustered load near metropolitan grids1local constraintPARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversityland and water pressure at sitessite conflictsTHIN
GS-12Earth observationsatellite links and timing signals underpin networkssignal interferenceTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalreporting and security rules in force1819implementation gapsGOOD
GS-14Policychip and AI rules and funding43816delivery against targetsGOOD
GS-15Scienceinterdependency and weaponised-interdependence research373940data at operating scalePARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4WSTS (ed.), Global Semiconductor Market grows 26% in 2025 to USD 796 billion (release page; sales of USD 795.6 billion, up 26.2%). World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Dec 2025 data, release dated March 2026 by file name. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12Central Statistics Office (ed.), Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2024 (release of 10 June 2025; 22% of metered electricity in 2024, 21% in 2023, 5% in 2015). CSO, Cork. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9Eurostat (ed.), Cloud computing: statistics on the use by enterprises (Statistics Explained; 52.74% of EU enterprises with 10 or more persons used paid cloud services in 2025). Eurostat, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 11Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (ed.), The 2026 AI Index Report (report page; private AI investment in 2025 of USD 285.88 billion in the United States, USD 20.92 billion in Europe and USD 12.41 billion in China). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 13ITU (ed.), Facts and Figures (page titled 2025 whose text describes the 2026 edition; 6.3 billion people online, 76%; 2 billion offline; 93% in high-income and 32% in low-income countries). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18European Commission (ed.), Cyber Resilience Act (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2024/2847; in force 10 December 2024; reporting from 11 September 2026; main obligations from 11 December 2027). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 19European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive (policy page; Directive (EU) 2022/2555; transposition deadline 17 October 2024). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 43US Congress (ed.), CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, Public Law 117-167, Division A, Title I, section 102 (statute text, US Government Publishing Office; CHIPS for America Fund appropriations for fiscal years 2022 to 2026 of USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives under section 9902 and USD 11 billion for research; totals are sums of the annual amounts). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 8European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1781; three pillars; 19 State aid decisions with over EUR 33 billion of public and private investment). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2024/1689; in force 1 August 2024; general application 2 August 2026; omnibus in force 27 July 2026). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Farrell, H. and Newman, A.L., Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion, International Security 44(1), 42 to 79, 2019, cited from memory. MIT Press. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rinaldi, S.M., Peerenboom, J.P. and Kelly, T.K., Identifying, understanding, and analysing critical infrastructure interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine 21(6), 11 to 25, 2001, cited from memory. Observation year 2001. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-STRATTECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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