Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Indonesia 2026
Indonésie
Indonesia (Republik Indonesia) enters 2027 as an economy of 285.7 million people and about US$1.45 trillion of output in 2025, growing 5.1% that year. Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use reached 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 in 2023.
- Constats
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Sources
- 57
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Indonesia in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Indonesia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATEau1 finding
Not bound Safely managed drinking water, none. ·Not bound
Supply, loss and flood indicators not bound; withdrawals 11.0% of internal resources in the 2022 series.
- ENEÉnergie2 findings
82% Fossil share of electricity, 2024. □Déclaré
Fossil fuels 82% of electricity in 2024; net energy exporter.
- INFinfrastructuresnot assessed
Island networks; condition not bound at public-safe resolution.
- FOOAlimentation2 findings
59 million t Paddy production, officially estimated, 2025. □Déclaré
Paddy 59 million tonnes in 2025; wheat imports near a record.
- HLTSanté2 findings
22.0% Stunting among children under five, 2023. □Déclaré
Stunting 22.0% in 2023; young population; surveillance series not bound.
- BIOBiodiversité1 finding
12.0% Land in protected areas, 2025. □Déclaré
Forest 50.7% of land; protected land 12.0%; deforestation records not bound.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-IDN-CLI-001
Heavy rain, flood and landslide
□DéclaréEQL 3
- Facteur
- intense rainfall on steep and flat terrain
- Exposition
- floodplains, hill settlements, rice land
- Vulnérabilité
- not bound at public-safe resolution
- Capacité
- not bound
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → INF, FOO, HLT
- Horizon
- annuel
RSK-IDN-FOO-002
Harvest loss and import shock
□DéclaréEQL 3
- Facteur
- crop losses and grain price spikes
- Exposition
- rice and maize growers; wheat-based foods
- Vulnérabilité
- self-sufficiency not bound [22]
- Capacité
- reserve stocks not bound [22]
- Cascade
- TRD → FOO → HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-IDN-ENE-003
Fossil dependence and supply disruption
□DéclaréEQL 3
- Facteur
- fuel price spike or plant outage
- Exposition
- power, industry, households
- Vulnérabilité
- generation by fuel not bound [20]
- Capacité
- reserve margins not bound [21]
- Cascade
- ENE → HLT, FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-IDN-SEI-004
Geophysical hazards and subsidence near dense settlement
◎Expert inputEQL 2
- Facteur
- séisme, volcanic or subsidence processes
- Exposition
- cities, ports, coasts
- Vulnérabilité
- not bound; land subsidence in Jakarta documented [51]
- Capacité
- not bound
- Cascade
- SEI → INF, WAT, HLT
- Horizon
- 30 years
Scenario · SCN-IDN-FLD-01
Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATheavy rain floods fields and settlements
- 2WAT → INFlandslides cut roads and power lines
- 3WAT → FOOstanding crops are lost and planting is delayed
- 4INF → HLTaccess to clinics and supplies falls
- 5TRD → FOOimport needs rise as domestic supply tightens
- 6FOO → FINprice pressure reaches household budgets
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Indonesia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systèmes. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| De | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Modérée | Strong |
| ENE | Modérée | · | Strong | Strong | Modérée |
| FOO | Modérée | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Modérée | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Modérée | Strong | Modérée | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain floods and triggers landslides, cutting roads and power□Déclaré
- CLI → WAT → FOOfloods destroy standing crops and delay planting□Déclaré
- TRD → FOOa wheat price or shipping shock reaches food prices◎Expert input
- ENE → HLTa power outage interrupts clinics and cold chains◎Expert input
- CLI → BIO → HLTfire and haze affect forests, air and health□Déclaré
05 · Findings
Every finding of Indonesia.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Édition | Sector or system | Statut | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Indonésie | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 Mt CO₂e in 2023. |
| CLI-002 | Indonésie | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | Climate Action Tracker rates Indonesia’s overall climate effort critically insufficient and puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 112% in 2030 and 141% in 2035. |
| ENE-003 | Indonésie | ENE Énergie | □ Déclaré | Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity and clean sources 18% in 2024; hydro supplied 7.4% and wind and solar 0.5%. |
| ENE-004 | Indonésie | ENE Énergie | □ Déclaré | Indonesia was a net energy exporter in 2024: net energy imports were minus 92.8% of energy use. |
| FOO-005 | Indonésie | FOO Alimentation | □ Déclaré | The 2025 paddy crop was officially estimated at 59 million tonnes, about 9% above average. |
| FOO-006 | Indonésie | FOO Alimentation | □ Déclaré | Wheat imports are forecast at a near-record 11.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year. |
| CLI-007 | Indonésie | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | Floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra in late December 2025 and early January 2026 caused crop losses. |
| HLT-008 | Indonésie | HLT Santé | □ Déclaré | Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023, down from 30% in 2018. |
| HLT-009 | Indonésie | HLT Santé | □ Déclaré | Indonesia had 285.7 million people in 2025; 7.5% were aged 65 or over and 59.4% lived in urban areas. |
| BIO-010 | Indonésie | BIO Biodiversité | □ Déclaré | Protected areas covered 12.0% of land in 2025, against a global target of 30% by 2030. |
| WAT-011 | Indonésie | WAT Eau | · Not bound | Safely managed drinking water, water loss and flood records are not bound in this edition. |
| SYS-012 | Indonésie | SYS Systémique | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands that cuts roads, power and harvests together while wheat imports are high. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Indonesia.
| Bureau | Édition | État | Identifiant |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Indonesia 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Indonesia 2026 | En préparation | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Indonesia 2026 | En préparation | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Indonesia 2026 | En préparation |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Clôture des preuves30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Rectificatifsafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-IDN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LireThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuerSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ExamenJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Journal des corrections
| Version | Date | État | Variation | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | aucun |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Écart | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/idn/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Indonesia.
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