Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

4 min read1 figure0 tables12 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Food
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Biodiversity
    7. 2.7 Water
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 Mt CO₂e in 2023 and 1,181.3 Mt CO₂e in 2022.

Figure 2.1Emissions excluding land use (Mt CO₂e)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
20221,181.3
20231,261.3
20241,323.8

Source: World Bank WDI emissions series4.

Implication

Emissions rose while Climate Action Tracker puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 141% in 20359. With fossil fuels supplying 82% of electricity8, the power system is the first system to watch. Land use and peat, which the national inventory covers, are not bound here19.

What would move it

The national inventory including land use, the electricity mix for 2025 and 2026, and the Second NDC implementation plans would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 Mt CO₂e in 2023.4

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Climate Action Tracker rates Indonesia’s overall climate effort critically insufficient and puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 112% in 2030 and 141% in 2035.9

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    Floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra in late December 2025 and early January 2026 caused crop losses.10

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity and clean sources 18% in 2024; hydro supplied 7.4% and wind and solar 0.5%.8

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Indonesia was a net energy exporter in 2024: net energy imports were minus 92.8% of energy use.4

2.4Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-005

    The 2025 paddy crop was officially estimated at 59 million tonnes, about 9% above average.10

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

    Wheat imports are forecast at a near-record 11.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year.10

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023, down from 30% in 2018.6

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    Indonesia had 285.7 million people in 2025; 7.5% were aged 65 or over and 59.4% lived in urban areas.12

2.6Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Protected areas covered 12.0% of land in 2025, against a global target of 30% by 2030.540

2.7Water

  1. Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-011

    Safely managed drinking water, water loss and flood records are not bound in this edition.2455

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands that cuts roads, power and harvests together while wheat imports are high. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
  2. 9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
  3. 8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
  4. 19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  5. 10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
  6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
  7. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
  8. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
  9. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
  10. 40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  11. 24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  12. 55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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