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Kenya 2026

Kenya

Kenya enters 2027 as a lower-middle-income economy of 57.5 million people whose electricity system runs mostly on geothermal and hydropower, whose arid counties face acute Insécurité alimentaire, and whose 2024 floods killed 478 people. The national inventory put total greenhouse-gas emissions at 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt.

Read the editionExposition aux aléas
Constats
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Sources
54
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Kenya in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Kenya baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 57.5millionpopulation, 2025 [1]
  • 32.2%urban share of population, 2025 [6]
  • 113.4Mt CO₂etotal emissions, 2022 [27]
  • 3.0%adult HIV prevalence, 2024 [4]
  • 63.8annéeslife expectancy at birth, 2024 [2]
  • 47counties45.8% of employment is in agriculture, 2025 [19]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATEau1 finding

    65.6% People with at least basic drinking water, 2024. Déclaré

    About two in three people have basic drinking water and two in five basic sanitation; renewable freshwater per person is low.

  2. ENEÉnergie2 findings

    40.9% Geothermal share of electricity generation, FY2025/26. Déclaré

    Geothermal and hydro lead generation; imports 12.19%; losses 21.38%.

  3. INFinfrastructuresnot assessed

    Grid losses and long outages; roads and water sources cut in floods.

  4. FOOAlimentation2 findings

    3.7 million People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties, Apr to Jun 2026. Déclaré

    Maize output up in 2025; 3.7 million people in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties.

  5. HLTSanté2 findings

    63.8 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. Déclaré

    Life expectancy 63.8 years; mpox, measles, dengue and cholera events in 2026.

  6. BIOBiodiversité1 finding

    Not bound Ecosystem threat status, national, n/a. Not bound

    Protected areas cover 13.9% of land; threat status not bound.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-KEN-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding across many counties

    DéclaréEQL 4

    Facteur
    enhanced long rains · cut-off events
    Exposition
    river corridors, informal settlements, roads, water sources
    Vulnérabilité
    46 of 47 counties affected in 2024 [35]
    Capacité
    flood warnings issued earlier; county plans in six counties [27]
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    annuel

    Systèmes d'eau

  • RSK-KEN-FOO-002

    Failed rains and acute food insecurity in the arid counties

    DéclaréEQL 4

    Facteur
    below-average short rains · high prices · reduced aid
    Exposition
    pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the arid counties
    Vulnérabilité
    3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse [32]
    Capacité
    cash transfers for drought response reported [27]
    Cascade
    FOO → HLT, displacement, conflict over resources
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-KEN-ENE-003

    Supply shortfall and loss-heavy distribution

    DéclaréEQL 4

    Facteur
    hydro swings · import dependence · demand growth
    Exposition
    water works, clinics, industry, households
    Vulnérabilité
    losses 21.38% · outages 3.23 hours average [25]
    Capacité
    3,082 MW effective interconnected capacity against a 2,514.28 MW peak [25]
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-KEN-HLT-004

    Concurrent outbreaks in a stretched health system

    DéclaréEQL 3

    Facteur
    mpox · measles · cholera · dengue · cross-border Ebola threat
    Exposition
    north-east counties, refugee camps, Nairobi and coastal counties
    Vulnérabilité
    basic sanitation reaches 40.9% [10]
    Capacité
    national public health institute leads preparedness [33]
    Cascade
    HLT → FOO, WAT workforce
    Horizon
    annuel

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-KEN-DRT-01

Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → FOOfailed rains cut pasture and crop output; prices rise
  2. 2FOO → HLTacute Insécurité alimentaire raises demand for nutrition and health services
  3. 3WAT → ENElow rainfall reduces hydro output; thermal and imports fill the gap
  4. 4ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
  5. 5WAT → HLTsupply gaps and sanitation limits raise exposure to waterborne disease
  6. 6HLT → FOOoutbreak response competes with food and cash support for the same staff

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Kenya matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systèmes. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
DeWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongStrongModérée
ENEModérée·ModéréeModéréeModérée
FOOModéréeWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModérée·Weak
BIOStrongModéréeModéréeModérée·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → FOO → HLTa failed rainy season raises food prices and acute Insécurité alimentaire, and health services take the loadDéclaré
  2. CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain destroys water sources, roads and health facilitiesDéclaré
  3. WAT → ENElow rainfall cuts hydro output and raises reliance on thermal and importsInferred
  4. ENE → WAT → HLTpower loss interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to waterborne disease risesInferred
  5. CLI → FINrepeated disasters raise fiscal pressure in a country at high risk of debt distressInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Kenya.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Kenya
IDÉditionSector or systemStatutStatement
CLI-001KenyaCLI Climate forcing DéclaréTotal greenhouse-gas emissions were 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt; agriculture, forestry and other land use made up 73% of emissions.
CLI-002KenyaCLI Climate forcing DéclaréThe second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 20% of the cut from domestic resources and 80% conditional on support.
ENE-003KenyaENE Énergie DéclaréElectricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%, and peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW.
ENE-004KenyaENE Énergie DéclaréSystem losses were 21.38% in the year to June 2026 against an allowable 16.5%, average outage length rose to 3.23 hours, and 392.36 GWh of geothermal energy was curtailed.
WAT-005KenyaWAT Eau DéclaréIn 2024, 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation; renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022.
FOO-006KenyaFOO Alimentation DéclaréAbout 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced IPC Phase 3 or worse in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier, and about 545,000 were in Phase 4.
FOO-007KenyaFOO Alimentation DéclaréAgriculture growth slowed to 3.1% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024, and maize output rose to 45.8 million bags from 44.8 million after above-average long rains and below-average short rains.
HLT-008KenyaHLT Santé DéclaréLife expectancy at birth was 63.8 years in 2024, adult HIV prevalence 3.0%, under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births and malaria incidence 74.2 per 1,000 people at risk.
HLT-009KenyaHLT Santé DéclaréBy early June 2026 Kenya reported 1,141 cumulative mpox cases with 19 deaths, a measles outbreak of 445 cases and a dengue event of 1,269 cases in Garissa.
BIO-010KenyaBIO Biodiversité DéclaréForest area was 6.6% of land in 2024 on the World Bank series, and the national measure rose from 6.99% in 2010 to 8.83% in 2021; terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land and marine areas 0.7% in 2025.
CLI-011KenyaCLI Climate forcing DéclaréThe 2024 long-rains floods caused 478 reported deaths, affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties, many of them the same counties hit by the 2021–2023 drought.
SYS-012KenyaSYS Systémique Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season in the arid counties with a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak on top.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Kenya.

The desks’ editions for Kenya
BureauÉditionÉtatIdentifiant
GCRI Systems EvidenceKenya 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Kenya 2026En préparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Kenya 2026En préparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Kenya 2026En préparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Clôture des preuves30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Rectificatifsafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Journal des corrections

Versions and corrections
VersionDateÉtatVariationNotice
NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,aucun
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
ÉcartShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ken/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
RapportsContribuer

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