Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Kenya 2026
케냐
Kenya enters 2027 as a lower-middle-income economy of 57.5 million people whose electricity system runs mostly on geothermal and hydropower, whose arid counties face acute 식량 불안, and whose 2024 floods killed 478 people. The national inventory put total greenhouse-gas emissions at 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt.
- 조사 결과
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- 출처
- 54
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Kenya in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Kenya baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WAT물1 finding
65.6% People with at least basic drinking water, 2024. □보고값
About two in three people have basic drinking water and two in five basic sanitation; renewable freshwater per person is low.
- ENE에너지2 findings
40.9% Geothermal share of electricity generation, FY2025/26. □보고값
Geothermal and hydro lead generation; imports 12.19%; losses 21.38%.
- INF인프라not assessed
Grid losses and long outages; roads and water sources cut in floods.
- FOO식량2 findings
3.7 million People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties, Apr to Jun 2026. □보고값
Maize output up in 2025; 3.7 million people in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties.
- HLT보건2 findings
63.8 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. □보고값
Life expectancy 63.8 years; mpox, measles, dengue and cholera events in 2026.
- BIO생물다양성1 finding
Not bound Ecosystem threat status, national, n/a. ·Not bound
Protected areas cover 13.9% of land; threat status not bound.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-KEN-CLI-001
Heavy-rain flooding across many counties
□보고값EQL 4
RSK-KEN-FOO-002
Failed rains and acute food insecurity in the arid counties
□보고값EQL 4
- 동인
- below-average short rains · high prices · reduced aid
- 노출
- pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the arid counties
- 취약성
- 3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse [32]
- 역량
- cash transfers for drought response reported [27]
- 캐스케이드
- FOO → HLT, displacement, conflict over resources
- 예측 시계
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-KEN-ENE-003
Supply shortfall and loss-heavy distribution
□보고값EQL 4
- 동인
- hydro swings · import dependence · demand growth
- 노출
- water works, clinics, industry, households
- 취약성
- losses 21.38% · outages 3.23 hours average [25]
- 역량
- 3,082 MW effective interconnected capacity against a 2,514.28 MW peak [25]
- 캐스케이드
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
- 예측 시계
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-KEN-HLT-004
Concurrent outbreaks in a stretched health system
□보고값EQL 3
- 동인
- mpox · measles · cholera · dengue · cross-border Ebola threat
- 노출
- north-east counties, refugee camps, Nairobi and coastal counties
- 취약성
- basic sanitation reaches 40.9% [10]
- 역량
- national public health institute leads preparedness [33]
- 캐스케이드
- HLT → FOO, WAT workforce
- 예측 시계
- 연간
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-KEN-DRT-01
Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → FOOfailed rains cut pasture and crop output; prices rise
- 2FOO → HLTacute 식량 불안 raises demand for nutrition and health services
- 3WAT → ENElow rainfall reduces hydro output; thermal and imports fill the gap
- 4ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
- 5WAT → HLTsupply gaps and sanitation limits raise exposure to waterborne disease
- 6HLT → FOOoutbreak response competes with food and cash support for the same staff
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Kenya matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core 시스템. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| 출발 | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Strong | 중간 규모 손실 |
| ENE | 중간 규모 손실 | · | 중간 규모 손실 | 중간 규모 손실 | 중간 규모 손실 |
| FOO | 중간 규모 손실 | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | 중간 규모 손실 | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | 중간 규모 손실 | 중간 규모 손실 | 중간 규모 손실 | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → FOO → HLTa failed rainy season raises food prices and acute 식량 불안, and health services take the load□보고값
- CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain destroys water sources, roads and health facilities□보고값
- WAT → ENElow rainfall cuts hydro output and raises reliance on thermal and imports▲Inferred
- ENE → WAT → HLTpower loss interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to waterborne disease rises▲Inferred
- CLI → FINrepeated disasters raise fiscal pressure in a country at high risk of debt distress▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Kenya.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | 판 | Sector or system | 상태 | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | 케냐 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 보고값 | Total greenhouse-gas emissions were 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt; agriculture, forestry and other land use made up 73% of emissions. |
| CLI-002 | 케냐 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 보고값 | The second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 20% of the cut from domestic resources and 80% conditional on support. |
| ENE-003 | 케냐 | ENE 에너지 | □ 보고값 | Electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%, and peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW. |
| ENE-004 | 케냐 | ENE 에너지 | □ 보고값 | System losses were 21.38% in the year to June 2026 against an allowable 16.5%, average outage length rose to 3.23 hours, and 392.36 GWh of geothermal energy was curtailed. |
| WAT-005 | 케냐 | WAT 물 | □ 보고값 | In 2024, 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation; renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022. |
| FOO-006 | 케냐 | FOO 식량 | □ 보고값 | About 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced IPC Phase 3 or worse in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier, and about 545,000 were in Phase 4. |
| FOO-007 | 케냐 | FOO 식량 | □ 보고값 | Agriculture growth slowed to 3.1% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024, and maize output rose to 45.8 million bags from 44.8 million after above-average long rains and below-average short rains. |
| HLT-008 | 케냐 | HLT 보건 | □ 보고값 | Life expectancy at birth was 63.8 years in 2024, adult HIV prevalence 3.0%, under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births and malaria incidence 74.2 per 1,000 people at risk. |
| HLT-009 | 케냐 | HLT 보건 | □ 보고값 | By early June 2026 Kenya reported 1,141 cumulative mpox cases with 19 deaths, a measles outbreak of 445 cases and a dengue event of 1,269 cases in Garissa. |
| BIO-010 | 케냐 | BIO 생물다양성 | □ 보고값 | Forest area was 6.6% of land in 2024 on the World Bank series, and the national measure rose from 6.99% in 2010 to 8.83% in 2021; terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land and marine areas 0.7% in 2025. |
| CLI-011 | 케냐 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 보고값 | The 2024 long-rains floods caused 478 reported deaths, affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties, many of them the same counties hit by the 2021–2023 drought. |
| SYS-012 | 케냐 | SYS 시스템 | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season in the arid counties with a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak on top. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Kenya.
| 데스크 | 판 | 상태 | 식별자 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Kenya 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Kenya 2026 | 준비 중 | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Kenya 2026 | 준비 중 | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Kenya 2026 | 준비 중 |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03근거 마감30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07정정after release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- 읽기The edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- 기여하기Send evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- 검토Join the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
정정 기록
| 버전 | 날짜 | 상태 | 변화 | 공지 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | 없음 |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| 격차 | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ken/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Kenya.
보고서 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) 시스템 증거 담당 부서에 속합니다. 이 주제에 대해 아시는 내용은 다음 판에서 증거, 사례 또는 정정이 될 수 있으며, 귀하의 이름으로 표기되고 직접 작성한 저작물인 경우 CC BY 4.0으로 발행됩니다. 잘못된 부서에 보내더라도 거절되지 않고 전달됩니다.
- 이메일게이트웨이 GW-GCRI이 페이지에서 보내기증거, 정정, 사례, 방법, 검토, 번역 또는 프로필 입력 자료. 이 페이지의 태그가 붙어 도착하므로, 이를 담당하는 편집자가 받게 됩니다.
- Zenodo개방형 예치기탁하고 커뮤니티에 제출하기ORCID iD로 Zenodo에 직접 기록을 게시한 뒤, 그곳의 Reports 커뮤니티에 제출하십시오. 큐레이터가 검토하며, DOI는 귀하의 것으로 남습니다.
- 보고서GCRI어느 담당 부서가 귀하의 내용을 받는지 확인하기안내표를 열면 기여 페이지로 연결되며, 무엇을 가지고 있는지, 어느 담당 부서가 받는지, 각 기여를 어떻게 검토하고 표기하는지, 그리고 라이선스를 확인할 수 있습니다.
개인정보, 민감한 인프라 세부 정보, 공유할 권리가 없는 자료는 절대 보내지 마십시오. 기여물은 사용 전에 검토됩니다. 기여물을 보낸다고 해서 저작자 지위나 편집 권한이 부여되지 않으며, 후원으로 조사 결과를 얻을 수 없습니다.
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.