Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Kenya 2026
Кения
Kenya enters 2027 as a lower-middle-income economy of 57.5 million people whose electricity system runs mostly on geothermal and hydropower, whose arid counties face acute отсутствие продовольственной безопасности, and whose 2024 floods killed 478 people. The national inventory put total greenhouse-gas emissions at 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt.
- Выводы
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Источники
- 54
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Kenya in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Kenya baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATВода1 finding
65.6% People with at least basic drinking water, 2024. □Сообщённые данные
About two in three people have basic drinking water and two in five basic sanitation; renewable freshwater per person is low.
- ENEЭнергетика2 findings
40.9% Geothermal share of electricity generation, FY2025/26. □Сообщённые данные
Geothermal and hydro lead generation; imports 12.19%; losses 21.38%.
- INFИнфраструктураnot assessed
Grid losses and long outages; roads and water sources cut in floods.
- FOOПродовольствие2 findings
3.7 million People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties, Apr to Jun 2026. □Сообщённые данные
Maize output up in 2025; 3.7 million people in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties.
- HLTЗдравоохранение2 findings
63.8 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. □Сообщённые данные
Life expectancy 63.8 years; mpox, measles, dengue and cholera events in 2026.
- BIOБиоразнообразие1 finding
Not bound Ecosystem threat status, national, n/a. ·Not bound
Protected areas cover 13.9% of land; threat status not bound.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-KEN-CLI-001
Heavy-rain flooding across many counties
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 4
RSK-KEN-FOO-002
Failed rains and acute food insecurity in the arid counties
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 4
- Движущая сила
- below-average short rains · high prices · reduced aid
- Подверженность
- pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the arid counties
- Уязвимость
- 3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse [32]
- Мощность
- cash transfers for drought response reported [27]
- Каскад
- FOO → HLT, displacement, conflict over resources
- Горизонт
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-KEN-ENE-003
Supply shortfall and loss-heavy distribution
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 4
- Движущая сила
- hydro swings · import dependence · demand growth
- Подверженность
- water works, clinics, industry, households
- Уязвимость
- losses 21.38% · outages 3.23 hours average [25]
- Мощность
- 3,082 MW effective interconnected capacity against a 2,514.28 MW peak [25]
- Каскад
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
- Горизонт
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-KEN-HLT-004
Concurrent outbreaks in a stretched health system
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 3
- Движущая сила
- mpox · measles · cholera · dengue · cross-border Ebola threat
- Подверженность
- north-east counties, refugee camps, Nairobi and coastal counties
- Уязвимость
- basic sanitation reaches 40.9% [10]
- Мощность
- national public health institute leads preparedness [33]
- Каскад
- HLT → FOO, WAT workforce
- Горизонт
- ежегодно
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-KEN-DRT-01
Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → FOOfailed rains cut pasture and crop output; prices rise
- 2FOO → HLTacute отсутствие продовольственной безопасности raises demand for nutrition and health services
- 3WAT → ENElow rainfall reduces hydro output; thermal and imports fill the gap
- 4ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
- 5WAT → HLTsupply gaps and sanitation limits raise exposure to waterborne disease
- 6HLT → FOOoutbreak response competes with food and cash support for the same staff
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Kenya matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core системы. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| От | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Strong | Умеренные |
| ENE | Умеренные | · | Умеренные | Умеренные | Умеренные |
| FOO | Умеренные | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Умеренные | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Умеренные | Умеренные | Умеренные | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → FOO → HLTa failed rainy season raises food prices and acute отсутствие продовольственной безопасности, and health services take the load□Сообщённые данные
- CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain destroys water sources, roads and health facilities□Сообщённые данные
- WAT → ENElow rainfall cuts hydro output and raises reliance on thermal and imports▲Inferred
- ENE → WAT → HLTpower loss interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to waterborne disease rises▲Inferred
- CLI → FINrepeated disasters raise fiscal pressure in a country at high risk of debt distress▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Kenya.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Выпуск | Sector or system | Статус | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Кения | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | Total greenhouse-gas emissions were 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt; agriculture, forestry and other land use made up 73% of emissions. |
| CLI-002 | Кения | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | The second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 20% of the cut from domestic resources and 80% conditional on support. |
| ENE-003 | Кения | ENE Энергетика | □ Сообщённые данные | Electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%, and peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW. |
| ENE-004 | Кения | ENE Энергетика | □ Сообщённые данные | System losses were 21.38% in the year to June 2026 against an allowable 16.5%, average outage length rose to 3.23 hours, and 392.36 GWh of geothermal energy was curtailed. |
| WAT-005 | Кения | WAT Вода | □ Сообщённые данные | In 2024, 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation; renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022. |
| FOO-006 | Кения | FOO Продовольствие | □ Сообщённые данные | About 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced IPC Phase 3 or worse in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier, and about 545,000 were in Phase 4. |
| FOO-007 | Кения | FOO Продовольствие | □ Сообщённые данные | Agriculture growth slowed to 3.1% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024, and maize output rose to 45.8 million bags from 44.8 million after above-average long rains and below-average short rains. |
| HLT-008 | Кения | HLT Здравоохранение | □ Сообщённые данные | Life expectancy at birth was 63.8 years in 2024, adult HIV prevalence 3.0%, under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births and malaria incidence 74.2 per 1,000 people at risk. |
| HLT-009 | Кения | HLT Здравоохранение | □ Сообщённые данные | By early June 2026 Kenya reported 1,141 cumulative mpox cases with 19 deaths, a measles outbreak of 445 cases and a dengue event of 1,269 cases in Garissa. |
| BIO-010 | Кения | BIO Биоразнообразие | □ Сообщённые данные | Forest area was 6.6% of land in 2024 on the World Bank series, and the national measure rose from 6.99% in 2010 to 8.83% in 2021; terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land and marine areas 0.7% in 2025. |
| CLI-011 | Кения | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | The 2024 long-rains floods caused 478 reported deaths, affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties, many of them the same counties hit by the 2021–2023 drought. |
| SYS-012 | Кения | SYS Системные риски | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season in the arid counties with a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak on top. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Kenya.
| Бюро | Выпуск | Статус | Идентификатор |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Kenya 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Kenya 2026 | В подготовке | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Kenya 2026 | В подготовке | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Kenya 2026 | В подготовке |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Закрытие доказательной базы30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Исправленияafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ИзучениеThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- Внести вкладSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- РецензированиеJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Журнал исправлений
| Версия | Дата | Статус | Изменение | Уведомление |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | нет |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Разрыв | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ken/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Kenya.
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