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Kenya 2026

केन्या

Kenya enters 2027 as a lower-middle-income economy of 57.5 million people whose electricity system runs mostly on geothermal and hydropower, whose arid counties face acute खाद्य असुरक्षा, and whose 2024 floods killed 478 people. The national inventory put total greenhouse-gas emissions at 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt.

Read the editionसंकट जोखिम-संपर्क
निष्कर्ष
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
स्रोत
54
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Kenya in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Kenya baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 57.5millionpopulation, 2025 [1]
  • 32.2%urban share of population, 2025 [6]
  • 113.4Mt CO₂etotal emissions, 2022 [27]
  • 3.0%adult HIV prevalence, 2024 [4]
  • 63.8वर्षlife expectancy at birth, 2024 [2]
  • 47counties45.8% of employment is in agriculture, 2025 [19]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATजल1 finding

    65.6% People with at least basic drinking water, 2024. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    About two in three people have basic drinking water and two in five basic sanitation; renewable freshwater per person is low.

  2. ENEऊर्जा2 findings

    40.9% Geothermal share of electricity generation, FY2025/26. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Geothermal and hydro lead generation; imports 12.19%; losses 21.38%.

  3. INFअवसंरचनाnot assessed

    Grid losses and long outages; roads and water sources cut in floods.

  4. FOOखाद्य2 findings

    3.7 million People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties, Apr to Jun 2026. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Maize output up in 2025; 3.7 million people in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties.

  5. HLTस्वास्थ्य2 findings

    63.8 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Life expectancy 63.8 years; mpox, measles, dengue and cholera events in 2026.

  6. BIOजैव विविधता1 finding

    Not bound Ecosystem threat status, national, n/a. Not bound

    Protected areas cover 13.9% of land; threat status not bound.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-KEN-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding across many counties

    रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 4

    चालक
    enhanced long rains · cut-off events
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    river corridors, informal settlements, roads, water sources
    भेद्यता
    46 of 47 counties affected in 2024 [35]
    क्षमता
    flood warnings issued earlier; county plans in six counties [27]
    कैस्केड
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    क्षितिज
    वार्षिक

    जल प्रणालियाँ

  • RSK-KEN-FOO-002

    Failed rains and acute food insecurity in the arid counties

    रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 4

    चालक
    below-average short rains · high prices · reduced aid
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the arid counties
    भेद्यता
    3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse [32]
    क्षमता
    cash transfers for drought response reported [27]
    कैस्केड
    FOO → HLT, displacement, conflict over resources
    क्षितिज
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-KEN-ENE-003

    Supply shortfall and loss-heavy distribution

    रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 4

    चालक
    hydro swings · import dependence · demand growth
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    water works, clinics, industry, households
    भेद्यता
    losses 21.38% · outages 3.23 hours average [25]
    क्षमता
    3,082 MW effective interconnected capacity against a 2,514.28 MW peak [25]
    कैस्केड
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    क्षितिज
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-KEN-HLT-004

    Concurrent outbreaks in a stretched health system

    रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 3

    चालक
    mpox · measles · cholera · dengue · cross-border Ebola threat
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    north-east counties, refugee camps, Nairobi and coastal counties
    भेद्यता
    basic sanitation reaches 40.9% [10]
    क्षमता
    national public health institute leads preparedness [33]
    कैस्केड
    HLT → FOO, WAT workforce
    क्षितिज
    वार्षिक

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-KEN-DRT-01

Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → FOOfailed rains cut pasture and crop output; prices rise
  2. 2FOO → HLTacute खाद्य असुरक्षा raises demand for nutrition and health services
  3. 3WAT → ENElow rainfall reduces hydro output; thermal and imports fill the gap
  4. 4ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
  5. 5WAT → HLTsupply gaps and sanitation limits raise exposure to waterborne disease
  6. 6HLT → FOOoutbreak response competes with food and cash support for the same staff

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Kenya matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core प्रणालियाँ. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
सेWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongStrongमध्यम
ENEमध्यम·मध्यममध्यममध्यम
FOOमध्यमWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakमध्यम·Weak
BIOStrongमध्यममध्यममध्यम·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → FOO → HLTa failed rainy season raises food prices and acute खाद्य असुरक्षा, and health services take the loadरिपोर्ट किया गया
  2. CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain destroys water sources, roads and health facilitiesरिपोर्ट किया गया
  3. WAT → ENElow rainfall cuts hydro output and raises reliance on thermal and importsInferred
  4. ENE → WAT → HLTpower loss interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to waterborne disease risesInferred
  5. CLI → FINrepeated disasters raise fiscal pressure in a country at high risk of debt distressInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Kenya.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Kenya
IDसंस्करणSector or systemस्थितिStatement
CLI-001केन्याCLI Climate forcing रिपोर्ट किया गयाTotal greenhouse-gas emissions were 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt; agriculture, forestry and other land use made up 73% of emissions.
CLI-002केन्याCLI Climate forcing रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 20% of the cut from domestic resources and 80% conditional on support.
ENE-003केन्याENE ऊर्जा रिपोर्ट किया गयाElectricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%, and peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW.
ENE-004केन्याENE ऊर्जा रिपोर्ट किया गयाSystem losses were 21.38% in the year to June 2026 against an allowable 16.5%, average outage length rose to 3.23 hours, and 392.36 GWh of geothermal energy was curtailed.
WAT-005केन्याWAT जल रिपोर्ट किया गयाIn 2024, 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation; renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022.
FOO-006केन्याFOO खाद्य रिपोर्ट किया गयाAbout 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced IPC Phase 3 or worse in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier, and about 545,000 were in Phase 4.
FOO-007केन्याFOO खाद्य रिपोर्ट किया गयाAgriculture growth slowed to 3.1% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024, and maize output rose to 45.8 million bags from 44.8 million after above-average long rains and below-average short rains.
HLT-008केन्याHLT स्वास्थ्य रिपोर्ट किया गयाLife expectancy at birth was 63.8 years in 2024, adult HIV prevalence 3.0%, under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births and malaria incidence 74.2 per 1,000 people at risk.
HLT-009केन्याHLT स्वास्थ्य रिपोर्ट किया गयाBy early June 2026 Kenya reported 1,141 cumulative mpox cases with 19 deaths, a measles outbreak of 445 cases and a dengue event of 1,269 cases in Garissa.
BIO-010केन्याBIO जैव विविधता रिपोर्ट किया गयाForest area was 6.6% of land in 2024 on the World Bank series, and the national measure rose from 6.99% in 2010 to 8.83% in 2021; terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land and marine areas 0.7% in 2025.
CLI-011केन्याCLI Climate forcing रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe 2024 long-rains floods caused 478 reported deaths, affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties, many of them the same counties hit by the 2021–2023 drought.
SYS-012केन्याSYS प्रणालीगत Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season in the arid counties with a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak on top.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Kenya.

The desks’ editions for Kenya
डेस्कसंस्करणस्थितिपहचानकर्ता
GCRI Systems EvidenceKenya 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Kenya 2026तैयारी में
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Kenya 2026तैयारी में
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Kenya 2026तैयारी में

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03साक्ष्य समापन30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07सुधारafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

सुधार लॉग

Versions and corrections
संस्करणतिथिस्थितिबदलावसूचना
NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,कोई नहीं
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
अंतरालShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ken/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
रिपोर्टयोगदान दें

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