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Kenya 2026

肯尼亚

Kenya enters 2027 as a lower-middle-income economy of 57.5 million people whose electricity system runs mostly on geothermal and hydropower, whose arid counties face acute 粮食不安全, and whose 2024 floods killed 478 people. The national inventory put total greenhouse-gas emissions at 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt.

Read the edition危害暴露
发现
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
来源
54
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Kenya in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Kenya baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 57.5millionpopulation, 2025 [1]
  • 32.2%urban share of population, 2025 [6]
  • 113.4Mt CO₂etotal emissions, 2022 [27]
  • 3.0%adult HIV prevalence, 2024 [4]
  • 63.8年life expectancy at birth, 2024 [2]
  • 47counties45.8% of employment is in agriculture, 2025 [19]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WAT水1 finding

    65.6% People with at least basic drinking water, 2024. 报告值

    About two in three people have basic drinking water and two in five basic sanitation; renewable freshwater per person is low.

  2. ENE能源2 findings

    40.9% Geothermal share of electricity generation, FY2025/26. 报告值

    Geothermal and hydro lead generation; imports 12.19%; losses 21.38%.

  3. INF基础设施not assessed

    Grid losses and long outages; roads and water sources cut in floods.

  4. FOO食品2 findings

    3.7 million People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties, Apr to Jun 2026. 报告值

    Maize output up in 2025; 3.7 million people in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties.

  5. HLT卫生2 findings

    63.8 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. 报告值

    Life expectancy 63.8 years; mpox, measles, dengue and cholera events in 2026.

  6. BIO生物多样性1 finding

    Not bound Ecosystem threat status, national, n/a. Not bound

    Protected areas cover 13.9% of land; threat status not bound.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-KEN-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding across many counties

    报告值EQL 4

    驱动因素
    enhanced long rains · cut-off events
    风险暴露
    river corridors, informal settlements, roads, water sources
    脆弱性
    46 of 47 counties affected in 2024 [35]
    能力
    flood warnings issued earlier; county plans in six counties [27]
    级联
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    地平线
    年度

    水系统

  • RSK-KEN-FOO-002

    Failed rains and acute food insecurity in the arid counties

    报告值EQL 4

    驱动因素
    below-average short rains · high prices · reduced aid
    风险暴露
    pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the arid counties
    脆弱性
    3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse [32]
    能力
    cash transfers for drought response reported [27]
    级联
    FOO → HLT, displacement, conflict over resources
    地平线
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-KEN-ENE-003

    Supply shortfall and loss-heavy distribution

    报告值EQL 4

    驱动因素
    hydro swings · import dependence · demand growth
    风险暴露
    water works, clinics, industry, households
    脆弱性
    losses 21.38% · outages 3.23 hours average [25]
    能力
    3,082 MW effective interconnected capacity against a 2,514.28 MW peak [25]
    级联
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    地平线
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-KEN-HLT-004

    Concurrent outbreaks in a stretched health system

    报告值EQL 3

    驱动因素
    mpox · measles · cholera · dengue · cross-border Ebola threat
    风险暴露
    north-east counties, refugee camps, Nairobi and coastal counties
    脆弱性
    basic sanitation reaches 40.9% [10]
    能力
    national public health institute leads preparedness [33]
    级联
    HLT → FOO, WAT workforce
    地平线
    年度

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-KEN-DRT-01

Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → FOOfailed rains cut pasture and crop output; prices rise
  2. 2FOO → HLTacute 粮食不安全 raises demand for nutrition and health services
  3. 3WAT → ENElow rainfall reduces hydro output; thermal and imports fill the gap
  4. 4ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
  5. 5WAT → HLTsupply gaps and sanitation limits raise exposure to waterborne disease
  6. 6HLT → FOOoutbreak response competes with food and cash support for the same staff

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Kenya matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core 系统. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
从WATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongStrong中等
ENE中等·中等中等中等
FOO中等Weak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeak中等·Weak
BIOStrong中等中等中等·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → FOO → HLTa failed rainy season raises food prices and acute 粮食不安全, and health services take the load报告值
  2. CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain destroys water sources, roads and health facilities报告值
  3. WAT → ENElow rainfall cuts hydro output and raises reliance on thermal and importsInferred
  4. ENE → WAT → HLTpower loss interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to waterborne disease risesInferred
  5. CLI → FINrepeated disasters raise fiscal pressure in a country at high risk of debt distressInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Kenya.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Kenya
ID版本Sector or system状态Statement
CLI-001肯尼亚CLI Climate forcing 报告值Total greenhouse-gas emissions were 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt; agriculture, forestry and other land use made up 73% of emissions.
CLI-002肯尼亚CLI Climate forcing 报告值The second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 20% of the cut from domestic resources and 80% conditional on support.
ENE-003肯尼亚ENE 能源 报告值Electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%, and peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW.
ENE-004肯尼亚ENE 能源 报告值System losses were 21.38% in the year to June 2026 against an allowable 16.5%, average outage length rose to 3.23 hours, and 392.36 GWh of geothermal energy was curtailed.
WAT-005肯尼亚WAT 水 报告值In 2024, 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation; renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022.
FOO-006肯尼亚FOO 食品 报告值About 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced IPC Phase 3 or worse in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier, and about 545,000 were in Phase 4.
FOO-007肯尼亚FOO 食品 报告值Agriculture growth slowed to 3.1% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024, and maize output rose to 45.8 million bags from 44.8 million after above-average long rains and below-average short rains.
HLT-008肯尼亚HLT 卫生 报告值Life expectancy at birth was 63.8 years in 2024, adult HIV prevalence 3.0%, under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births and malaria incidence 74.2 per 1,000 people at risk.
HLT-009肯尼亚HLT 卫生 报告值By early June 2026 Kenya reported 1,141 cumulative mpox cases with 19 deaths, a measles outbreak of 445 cases and a dengue event of 1,269 cases in Garissa.
BIO-010肯尼亚BIO 生物多样性 报告值Forest area was 6.6% of land in 2024 on the World Bank series, and the national measure rose from 6.99% in 2010 to 8.83% in 2021; terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land and marine areas 0.7% in 2025.
CLI-011肯尼亚CLI Climate forcing 报告值The 2024 long-rains floods caused 478 reported deaths, affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties, many of them the same counties hit by the 2021–2023 drought.
SYS-012肯尼亚SYS 系统性 Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season in the arid counties with a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak on top.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Kenya.

The desks’ editions for Kenya
办事处版本状态标识符
GCRI Systems EvidenceKenya 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Kenya 2026筹备中
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Kenya 2026筹备中
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Kenya 2026筹备中

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03证据截止30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07更正after release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

更正记录

Versions and corrections
版本日期状态变化通知
NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,无
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
差距Shown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ken/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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