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Kenya 2026

Kenya

Kenya enters 2027 as a lower-middle-income economy of 57.5 million people whose electricity system runs mostly on geothermal and hydropower, whose arid counties face acute food insecurity, and whose 2024 floods killed 478 people. The national inventory put total greenhouse-gas emissions at 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt.

Read the editionHazard exposure
Matokeo ya uchunguzi
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Vyanzo
54
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Kenya in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Kenya baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 57.5millionpopulation, 2025 [1]
  • 32.2%urban share of population, 2025 [6]
  • 113.4Mt CO₂etotal emissions, 2022 [27]
  • 3.0%adult HIV prevalence, 2024 [4]
  • 63.8yearslife expectancy at birth, 2024 [2]
  • 47counties45.8% of employment is in agriculture, 2025 [19]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATMaji1 finding

    65.6% People with at least basic drinking water, 2024. Reported

    About two in three people have basic drinking water and two in five basic sanitation; renewable freshwater per person is low.

  2. ENENishati2 findings

    40.9% Geothermal share of electricity generation, FY2025/26. Reported

    Geothermal and hydro lead generation; imports 12.19%; losses 21.38%.

  3. INFMiundombinunot assessed

    Grid losses and long outages; roads and water sources cut in floods.

  4. FOOChakula2 findings

    3.7 million People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties, Apr to Jun 2026. Reported

    Maize output up in 2025; 3.7 million people in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties.

  5. HLTAfya2 findings

    63.8 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. Reported

    Life expectancy 63.8 years; mpox, measles, dengue and cholera events in 2026.

  6. BIOBioanuwai1 finding

    Not bound Ecosystem threat status, national, n/a. Not bound

    Protected areas cover 13.9% of land; threat status not bound.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-KEN-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding across many counties

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    enhanced long rains · cut-off events
    Exposure
    river corridors, informal settlements, roads, water sources
    Vulnerability
    46 of 47 counties affected in 2024 [35]
    Capacity
    flood warnings issued earlier; county plans in six counties [27]
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

    Water systems

  • RSK-KEN-FOO-002

    Failed rains and acute food insecurity in the arid counties

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    below-average short rains · high prices · reduced aid
    Exposure
    pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the arid counties
    Vulnerability
    3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse [32]
    Capacity
    cash transfers for drought response reported [27]
    Cascade
    FOO → HLT, displacement, conflict over resources
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-KEN-ENE-003

    Supply shortfall and loss-heavy distribution

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    hydro swings · import dependence · demand growth
    Exposure
    water works, clinics, industry, households
    Vulnerability
    losses 21.38% · outages 3.23 hours average [25]
    Capacity
    3,082 MW effective interconnected capacity against a 2,514.28 MW peak [25]
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-KEN-HLT-004

    Concurrent outbreaks in a stretched health system

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    mpox · measles · cholera · dengue · cross-border Ebola threat
    Exposure
    north-east counties, refugee camps, Nairobi and coastal counties
    Vulnerability
    basic sanitation reaches 40.9% [10]
    Capacity
    national public health institute leads preparedness [33]
    Cascade
    HLT → FOO, WAT workforce
    Horizon
    annual

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-KEN-DRT-01

Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → FOOfailed rains cut pasture and crop output; prices rise
  2. 2FOO → HLTacute food insecurity raises demand for nutrition and health services
  3. 3WAT → ENElow rainfall reduces hydro output; thermal and imports fill the gap
  4. 4ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
  5. 5WAT → HLTsupply gaps and sanitation limits raise exposure to waterborne disease
  6. 6HLT → FOOoutbreak response competes with food and cash support for the same staff

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Kenya matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core mifumo. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongStrongModerate
ENEModerate·ModerateModerateModerate
FOOModerateWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOStrongModerateModerateModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → FOO → HLTa failed rainy season raises food prices and acute food insecurity, and health services take the loadReported
  2. CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain destroys water sources, roads and health facilitiesReported
  3. WAT → ENElow rainfall cuts hydro output and raises reliance on thermal and importsInferred
  4. ENE → WAT → HLTpower loss interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to waterborne disease risesInferred
  5. CLI → FINrepeated disasters raise fiscal pressure in a country at high risk of debt distressInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Kenya.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Kenya
IDEditionSector or systemHaliStatement
CLI-001KenyaCLI Climate forcing ReportedTotal greenhouse-gas emissions were 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt; agriculture, forestry and other land use made up 73% of emissions.
CLI-002KenyaCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 20% of the cut from domestic resources and 80% conditional on support.
ENE-003KenyaENE Nishati ReportedElectricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%, and peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW.
ENE-004KenyaENE Nishati ReportedSystem losses were 21.38% in the year to June 2026 against an allowable 16.5%, average outage length rose to 3.23 hours, and 392.36 GWh of geothermal energy was curtailed.
WAT-005KenyaWAT Maji ReportedIn 2024, 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation; renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022.
FOO-006KenyaFOO Chakula ReportedAbout 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced IPC Phase 3 or worse in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier, and about 545,000 were in Phase 4.
FOO-007KenyaFOO Chakula ReportedAgriculture growth slowed to 3.1% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024, and maize output rose to 45.8 million bags from 44.8 million after above-average long rains and below-average short rains.
HLT-008KenyaHLT Afya ReportedLife expectancy at birth was 63.8 years in 2024, adult HIV prevalence 3.0%, under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births and malaria incidence 74.2 per 1,000 people at risk.
HLT-009KenyaHLT Afya ReportedBy early June 2026 Kenya reported 1,141 cumulative mpox cases with 19 deaths, a measles outbreak of 445 cases and a dengue event of 1,269 cases in Garissa.
BIO-010KenyaBIO Bioanuwai ReportedForest area was 6.6% of land in 2024 on the World Bank series, and the national measure rose from 6.99% in 2010 to 8.83% in 2021; terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land and marine areas 0.7% in 2025.
CLI-011KenyaCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe 2024 long-rains floods caused 478 reported deaths, affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties, many of them the same counties hit by the 2021–2023 drought.
SYS-012KenyaSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season in the arid counties with a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak on top.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Kenya.

The desks’ editions for Kenya
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceKenya 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Kenya 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Kenya 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Kenya 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Masahihishoafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ken/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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Ripoti is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Mifumo Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

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