GCRI · 贸易与战略资源
地缘经济与碎片化
Trade is increasingly shaped by security concerns: export controls, 制裁, investment screening, subsidies and tariffs that steer supply chains toward allies or home. These measures can reduce some dependencies while creating others, raising costs and splitting markets. This page sets out how 地缘经济碎片化 works, how it is measured, and what evidence serves the governments and firms that must navigate it.
Geoeconomics and fragmentation in seven parts.
Geoeconomics and fragmentation: how the risk develops.
Restrictions, market transmission and substitution. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Measures restrict and redirect
重塑谁与谁进行贸易的出口管制、 制裁 and tariffs block or tax trade with particular partners. Trade often reroutes through third countries rather than stopping.
Subsidies relocate production
Industrial policies subsidise domestic or allied production of chips, batteries and clean technology. Others respond, and trade patterns shift over years.
Blocs form along alignment
Trade and investment grow faster between politically aligned countries. Fragmentation reduces efficiency gains from specialisation and can raise prices.
Retaliation compounds
Each measure invites a response. Escalating restrictions widen the set of goods affected and raise uncertainty for investment.
走廊与咽喉要道监测。
团队跟踪该主题时会使用的界面：其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例，数值仅作示意。
走廊与咽喉要道监测器
Geoeconomics and fragmentation · Corridor A · Week 28
- 通行时间22天9警报
- 货运指数21431关注
- 船舶已改道57本周关注
- 清单覆盖率37天正常
走廊
红色：已中断
恢复时间与生存时间
按关键投入品
| 化肥 | 海峡 | 7 | 3 | 短 |
| 燃料 | 海峡 | 5 | 4 | 已覆盖 |
| 半导体 | 港口枢纽 | 24 | 11 | 短 |
| 谷物 | 走廊 A | 2 | 8 | 已覆盖 |
Fragmentation changes costs and resilience across domains.
Fragmentation scenarios are designed for the 前瞻展望系列, labelled as scenarios. The IMF’s 2023 Staff Discussion Note and the WTO World Trade Report 2023 set out estimated costs and their wide ranges; the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) takes no position on any dispute.
- Cases where a restriction reached a supply chain.
- Critiques of fragmentation scenarios.
How geoeconomics and fragmentation is modelled, measured and tested.
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。
系统模型
The couplings between the systems in geoeconomics and fragmentation: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
衡量什么，以及衡量得如何。
每个指标都注明其单位、频率、背后的来源类型以及数值将附带的证据标签。此处不显示数值：数值由计划依据其自身权限提供。
| 指标 | 单位 | 节奏 | 来源类型 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade policy interventions | count of measures by type | 每月 | Trade policy monitoring databases | 已报告 |
| Trade between geopolitical blocs | share of total trade | 每季度 | Bilateral trade data with bloc classification | 估算 |
| Goods covered by export controls | count of product codes | 每次变更 | Government control lists | 已发布统计 |
| Foreign direct investment screening decisions | count of reviews and blocks | 年度 | Investment screening reports | 已发布统计 |
| Average applied tariff | percent | 年度 | Tariff databases | 已发布统计 |
| Trade policy uncertainty | index value from text analysis | 每月 | Published uncertainty measures | 估算 |
证据来自何处。
具名公共数据集与机构记录，各自注明许可类别。依协议获得的来源仅按其条款使用，绝不再次发布。
| 来源 | 它提供什么 | 许可类别 |
|---|---|---|
| Global Trade Alert | Trade policy interventions by country and type | Public, terms to check |
| WTO trade monitoring reports and Integrated Database | Trade measures and applied tariffs | Public, WTO terms |
| OECD investment screening reports | Investment screening mechanisms and activity | Public, OECD terms |
| Authority export control and 制裁 lists | Restricted items, entities and countries | Public records, licence per government |
| IMF and WTO analysis of 地缘经济碎片化 | Estimates of fragmentation costs and trade shifts | Public, terms per publisher |
由谁决定，以及证据服务于什么。
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 谁来决定 | 问题 | 本页面服务的证据 |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of trade and foreign affairs | How to respond to and design trade measures | Measure trackers; fragmentation scenarios |
| Firms with global supply chains | How to adjust sourcing and investment to policy risk | Rerouting analyses; control lists |
| Multilateral institutions | How to monitor and reduce fragmentation costs | Trade monitoring evidence |
该主题产生的产出
- Trade measure trackers for products and partners of interest
- Rerouting analyses of trade through third countries
- Scenarios of fragmentation effects on supply
- Evidence notes for trade policy dialogues
What experts ask about fragmentation.
- How do restrictions change trade flows, and how much trade is rerouted through third countries?
- Which products and sectors are most affected, and how quickly can supply be substituted?
- What are the costs of fragmentation, and who bears them?
- How do retaliatory measures and policy uncertainty affect investment and supply decisions?
- How does fragmentation interact with energy transitions and technology development?
How restrictions transmit.
Trade measures change relative prices and access. Importers seek alternative suppliers; exporters seek new markets; and some trade is rerouted through intermediary countries. In the short run, substitution is limited by capacity, qualification requirements and contracts, so restrictions raise prices and cause shortages. In the long run, supply chains reorganise, sometimes at higher cost.
Uncertainty is itself a channel. When firms expect policy to change, they may delay investment, build buffers or duplicate supply chains. These responses can increase resilience but also reduce efficiency and raise prices.
Measures can spread. Restrictions by one country can prompt responses by others, and broad categories of goods, such as technology or critical minerals, may become subject to overlapping controls.
方法及其局限。
- 01
Gravity and trade models
Econometric models of bilateral trade used to estimate effects of measures, using 计量经济学. Results depend on specification.
- 02
投入产出分析
Tracing how restrictions on one sector affect others. Aggregation hides firm-level substitution.
- 03
Policy databases
Records of trade measures by product and country. Classification and coverage differ between sources.
- 04
Network scenarios
Simulating the removal of trade links using 网络科学. Behavioural responses are simplified.
Estimates of fragmentation costs vary widely with assumptions about substitution and adjustment time, and are presented with their ranges.
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
What is geoeconomic fragmentation?
What is friend-shoring?
Do sanctions stop trade?
Does the platform take positions on sanctions or tariffs?
Does it give compliance guidance?
Is fragmentation always harmful?
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