GCRI · 贸易与战略资源
粮食与能源贸易
Many countries import much of their staple food, fertiliser or fuel. Supply shocks, export restrictions and price spikes in a few exporters reach importers through prices and availability, hitting poor households and import-dependent states hardest. This page sets out how food and energy trade transmits shocks, how import dependence is measured, and what evidence serves the ministries and agencies that manage supply.
工作如何开展。
走廊与咽喉要道监测器
Food and energy trade · Corridor A · Week 23
- 通行时间29天4警报
- 货运指数22223关注
- 船舶已改道54本周关注
- 清单覆盖率26天正常
走廊
红色：已中断
恢复时间与生存时间
按关键投入品
| 化肥 | 海峡 | 13 | 3 | 短 |
| 燃料 | 海峡 | 3 | 6 | 已覆盖 |
| 半导体 | 港口枢纽 | 15 | 15 | 短 |
| 谷物 | 走廊 A | 5 | 8 | 已覆盖 |
图Corridor and chokepoint monitor: example names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.
Food and energy trade: how the risk develops.
Commodity security and import dependencies. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Exports are concentrated
A few countries supply most traded wheat, maize, rice, vegetable oils and fertilisers, and a few supply most traded oil and gas. A shock in one exporter affects many importers.
Export restrictions amplify spikes
When prices rise, exporters may restrict sales to protect domestic supply. Each restriction tightens the world market and can trigger others.
Energy feeds food
Natural gas is the main input to nitrogen fertiliser, and fuel drives farming and transport. Energy price shocks pass into food prices with a lag.
Import bills strain finances
Higher prices and weaker currencies raise import bills for food and fuel. Countries with limited reserves may cut imports or subsidies, passing shocks to households.
Energy now in the Strait of Malacca.
Night lights, population density and crop greenness over the Strait of Malacca, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
交互式地图需要JavaScript；图层列表和来源见下文。
图层 3
本页当前的能源状况
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测
- 来源
- VIIRS Black Marble（VNP46A2）（NASA LAADS DAAC）
- 提供方
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星辐射亮度，已校正月光和大气影响
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-12
- 处理结果
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示日期的卫星夜间辐射亮度；灯光是用电和停电的替代指标，并非对供应或获得电力情况的测量。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 估计值
- 来源
- 世界网格化人口 v4.11（NASA SEDAC（哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN））
- 提供方
- NASA SEDAC（哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN）
- 许可协议
- CC BY 4.0
- 年份版本
- null；基于人口普查的估算，静态（2020）
- 处理结果
- 约 1 公里网格
- 不确定性
- 基于人口普查的 2020 年每平方公里人口估算，作为风险暴露背景展示；不是受任何危害影响的人数。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测（云层造成缺口）
- 来源
- MODIS Terra NDVI（NASA LANCE）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星指数；云层造成缺口
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-13
- 处理结果
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 截至所示日期 8 天的卫星绿度指数；是作物和牧草状况的指标，不是产量估算，也不是粮食安全预警。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测
- 来源
- VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率（NASA LANCE）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星图像
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-14
- 处理结果
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 卫星图像。卫星或模型栅格数据，按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声；数值是指标，而非某地的测量值。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 模型生成（GIBS 发布的最新年份）
- 来源
- MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖（MCD12Q1）（NASA LP DAAC）
- 提供方
- NASA LP DAAC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每年；卫星分类；GIBS 发布的最新年份
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2024-01-01
- 处理结果
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示年份的卫星土地覆盖类别，含农田；该分类存在已知误差，并非农场登记册。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 模型生成（GIBS 发布的最新月份）
- 来源
- MERRA-2（NASA GMAO / GES DISC）
- 提供方
- NASA GMAO / GES DISC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每月；再分析模型；GIBS 发布的最新月份
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-07-01
- 处理结果
- 约 2 公里网格
- 不确定性
- 再分析模型对陆地月平均入射太阳辐射的估算；是太阳能资源的指标，并非场址发电量评估。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
键盘操作，地图获得焦点时
按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动以缩放
最新可用
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap贡献者 (ODbL) · Natural Earth
正在加载最新的NASA影像。
拖动以移动。按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动、双指缩放或使用按钮缩放；悬停可查看指针下的数值；重置可返回该区域。
Energy now, framed on the Strait of Malacca.NASA 发布的卫星和模型产品，各带自己的日期。它们是指标，而非对任何地点的评估。
数据：NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap 贡献者 · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT来源与许可
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- VIIRS Black Marble 夜间灯光，NASA 戈达德航天中心；由 NASA Level-1 与大气档案和分发系统（LAADS DAAC）分发；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). 采用 CC BY 4.0 许可。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- MODIS 陆地产品（植被指数、总初级生产力、土地覆盖），NASA LP DAAC 和 LANCE；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- VIIRS 近实时产品（洪水、地表温度、积雪覆盖、校正反射率），NASA LANCE；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- MERRA-2 再分析，NASA 全球建模与同化办公室；由 NASA GES DISC 分发；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- ASTER GDEM 是 METI 和 NASA 的产品（ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003，NASA LP DAAC）；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。引用格式：NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA 开放数据
- 使用 Natural Earth 制作。免费矢量和栅格地图数据，见 naturalearthdata.com。 公有领域
- © OpenStreetMap 贡献者（ODbL），经由 NASA GIBS（海岸线、边界、道路和地名）。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 ODbL
- Blue Marble，NASA Earth Observatory；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- 地球仪和平面地图上的背景信息：海岸线、边界、道路和地名来自 NASA GIBS 参考图层（OpenStreetMap 数据，ODbL，© OpenStreetMap contributors）；Blue Marble 影像可作为可选底图；3D 地形和高程读数来自 ASTER GDEM 高程色彩指数（5 m 至 200 m 分级，为便于辨识而作了夸张处理）。边界按已发布的样式绘制，不代表对任何领土的立场。
- 实时事件：NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker（EONET）；事件仅供参考，并保留其原始来源链接。
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- 过去一年的每日气温（ERA5，经由 Open-Meteo）：包含经修改的 Copernicus 气候变化服务 2026 年信息。
- 过去一年的每日气温和日照（NASA POWER）：这些数据来自 NASA 兰利研究中心（LaRC）POWER 项目，该项目由 NASA 地球科学/应用科学计划资助。
- 天气数据来自 Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), 依据 CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 授权。
- 可选图层（图层列表中共 10 个来源：实时、预报、观测和背景）启用后会在地图上和此处显示其提供方署名；预报为模型输出，衍生指数为估计值。
图层与日期
- 夜间灯光，每日：VIIRS Black Marble（VNP46A2），NASA LAADS DAAC · 2026年10月12日
- 人口密度，2020 年：人口：哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN，世界网格化人口 v4.11（2018），NASA SEDAC， CC BY 4.0 · 静态
- 植被绿度（NDVI），滚动 8 天：MODIS Terra NDVI，NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
- 真彩色：VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率，NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
- 土地覆盖类型（IGBP），年度：MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖（MCD12Q1），NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- 陆地地表入射太阳辐射，月均值：MERRA-2，NASA GMAO / GES DISC · 2026年7月
Food and energy trade move together under stress.
- 食品耦合Export restrictions and price spikes transmit food shocks.What to watchRestrictions in force
- 能源耦合Gas prices move fertiliser and food production costs.What to watchGas to fertiliser price pass-through
- 卫生耦合Import-dependent poor households feel price spikes first.What to watchFood share of household spending
Trade transmission analyses are designed for the 战略系统系列. AMIS monitors staple markets and the IEA tracks energy security; the page uses their data with their dates.
- Import dependence data for food and fuel.
- Cases of joint food and energy shocks.
冲击在投入产出经济中的传播。
一个部门的产出损失通过技术系数传导至其供应商和客户，并按您设定的速率恢复；这些系数是教学数值，不是国民账户。这是带有明示示意数值的教学模型，不是预测。本页地图显示马六甲海峡；模型本身不与任何地点绑定。
控制措施
- 最先受冲击的部门（在列表中的位置）
- 0
- 冲击规模
- 其产出的 30%
- 冲击持续时间
- 30 days
- 恢复速率
- 每天 0.08
- 模拟天数
- 180 days
读数
- 运行期间损失的产出
- 0.86% of a year’s output
- 总量与直接量之比（乘数）
- 1.75 times
- 受影响最大的其他部门
- 交通
- 其峰值不可运行性
- 2.8%
数字、方法与来源
| 部门 | 峰值不可运行性（%） | 产出权重（%） |
|---|---|---|
| Farming | 30.38 | 22.1 |
| Fertiliser and inputs | 2.64 | 17.8 |
| 食品加工 | 1.18 | 11.0 |
| 交通 | 2.81 | 11.1 |
| Wholesale and retail | 1.29 | 19.1 |
| 能源 | 2.41 | 18.9 |
方法
- 投入产出分析 Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press
- 不可运行性投入产出模型 Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7
- 动态不可运行性与恢复 Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9
- 不确定性扇形图（参数蒙特卡罗） Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- 单因素敏感性（龙卷风图） Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
数据
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- 海港 Natural Earth
- 海上咽喉要道 Nexus（按公布坐标标注的指定海峡和运河）
- 铁路 Natural Earth
- 主要道路 Natural Earth
贯穿六大支柱，由 Nexus Consortium 牵头
衡量什么，以及衡量得如何。
每个指标都注明其单位、频率、背后的来源类型以及数值将附带的证据标签。此处不显示数值：数值由计划依据其自身权限提供。
| 指标 | 单位 | 节奏 | 来源类型 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cereal import dependency ratio | percent of domestic supply imported | 年度 | FAO food balance data | 估算 |
| Food import bill | share of merchandise exports | 年度 | 贸易统计 | 已发布统计 |
| Net energy imports | percent of energy use | 年度 | Energy balances | 已发布统计 |
| Food and fertiliser export restrictions in force | count and share of traded calories | 每月 | Export restriction trackers | 已报告 |
| International food price index | index points | 每月 | FAO Food Price Index | 已发布统计 |
| Exporter concentration for staple imports | Herfindahl-Hirschman index | 年度 | Bilateral trade data | 估算 |
Model food and energy trade as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 供应链与贸易风险: the hazards it names, the 系统 and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
控制措施
NS-0章程与原则NS-3风险记录 UNI（语法、旧编码对照、分配机构）NS-9情境 UNI（部署、实例、计划实例）NS-10政策和条款（机器可读的义务：定义、约束、评估和执行）NS-11验证与监测（证据、证明、零信任符合性观测）NS-12软件、模型和 AI/ML 制品（供应链、模型卡、数据集说明）NRS-H60危害类别：供应链与流动中断（NHS-1 sys.supply-chain）NRS-X4贸易、运输与供应链风险NRS-H89危害类别：交通网络中断（NHS-1 infra.mobility）NRS-K38领域包概况：供应链与贸易（DOMAIN-038）NRS-H43危害族：畜牧业和水产养殖动物疫病（NHS-1 health.animal-health）NRS-M10方法结构：市场、贸易与供应链
观测
- IMF PortWatch port activity and chokepoint disruptions (listed for reference)
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (listed for reference)
- OECD Data Explorer（SDMX API）（仅列作参考）
- World Bank Open Data 和 World Development Indicators API（仅列作参考）
- Developing countries’ and least developed countries’ share of global exports
- Passenger and freight volumes, by mode of transport
示例地理范围
- The Strait of Malacca: 227 hexagonal cells
- 今夜夜间灯光与停电（VIIRS 昼夜波段），NASA GIBS
- 穿透云层的地表水，30 m（OPERA DSWx-S1 雷达），NASA GIBS
- 过去半小时降雨率（IMERG），NASA GIBS
- 地表土壤湿度（SMAP），NASA GIBS
证据来自何处。
具名公共数据集与机构记录，各自注明许可类别。依协议获得的来源仅按其条款使用，绝不再次发布。
| 来源 | 它提供什么 | 许可类别 |
|---|---|---|
| FAOSTAT | Production, trade and food balances by country and commodity | 开放，CC BY 4.0 |
| AMIS Market Monitor (FAO and partners) | Supply, demand and policy information for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans | Public, AMIS terms |
| IFPRI Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker | Export restrictions by country and product | Public, licence to check |
| IEA World Energy Balances | Energy supply, trade and use by country | Licence per product (to check) |
| JODI oil and gas data | Monthly oil and gas production, trade and stocks | Free, JODI terms |
The sector signature of food and energy trade.
The sectors food and energy trade touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
签名
Energy and Food
Energy gives food fertiliser, machinery and cold chains (0.5): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.
W · E · I · F · H · B
- 部门
- 4 共 6
- 关系
- 6 共 15
- 耦合
- 0.46 占总量份额
当前最强的关系
- 能源 → 基础设施 · 为交通和电信供电0.8
- 水 → 能源 · 冷却水与水电0.6
- 水 → 粮食 · 灌溉0.8
- 基础设施 → 水 · 管道、水坝和处理设施0.6
由谁决定，以及证据服务于什么。
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 谁来决定 | 问题 | 本页面服务的证据 |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of agriculture, trade and energy | How to diversify suppliers and manage strategic reserves | Dependence profiles; concentration analyses |
| Ministries of finance and central banks | How to plan for import bill shocks | Import bill and price evidence |
| International organisations | How to coordinate responses to export restrictions | Restriction trackers and market monitors |
该主题产生的产出
- Import dependence profiles for food, fertiliser and fuel
- Exporter concentration analyses for staple imports
- Price transmission studies from world to local markets
- Evidence notes on export restriction episodes
How food and energy trade is modelled, measured and tested.
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。
系统模型
The couplings between the systems in food and energy trade: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
What experts ask about commodity trade.
- Which countries depend on few exporters for staples, fertilisers or fuels?
- How do export restrictions, route closures or harvest failures pass through to domestic prices?
- How large are stocks, and who holds them?
- How are food and energy markets linked through fertilisers, transport fuels and biofuels?
- Which households are most exposed to price spikes, and how do they cope?
How food and energy shocks travel.
Global markets for staple grains and oilseeds are supplied by relatively few major exporters, and international trade in some staples is a small share of production, which makes world prices sensitive to shifts in export supply. When major exporters restrict sales to protect domestic consumers, world prices can rise sharply, and other exporters may follow, an effect documented in past food price crises.
Food and energy are tightly linked. Nitrogen fertiliser production uses natural gas as feedstock and energy; farming, processing and transport use fuel; and biofuel policies tie some crops to energy markets. An energy price shock therefore raises food production costs, with a lag.
Exposure is unequal. Households that spend a large share of income on food are hit hardest by price increases. Import-dependent countries with limited foreign exchange may struggle to pay for imports when prices rise and their currencies weaken at the same time.
方法及其局限。
- 01
Trade dependency analysis
Measures of import concentration by product and partner. Re-exports and informal trade can distort the picture.
- 02
Price transmission models
Time-series models of how world prices pass to domestic markets using 计量经济学. Transmission varies with policy and market structure.
- 03
Stock and balance sheets
Estimates of production, consumption and stocks. Private and some public stock data are not published.
- 04
情景分析
Testing combined shocks such as a harvest failure during an energy price spike. Scenarios illustrate, they do not forecast.
Food and energy trade data are revised often and differ between sources; analyses state which sources and vintages were used.
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
What is import dependency?
Why do export restrictions matter?
How do energy prices affect food?
Does the platform forecast food or energy prices?
Why include fertilisers?
Is humanitarian food aid covered?
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