Rerouting under chokepoint closure
Shipping network models find least-cost alternative routes when a chokepoint closes, and estimate added distance, time and capacity needed at alternative ports.
GCRI · Trade and Strategic Resources
Optimisation for trade and supply
Optimisation and operations research decide how to route, stock and diversify supply under cost and risk. In this field they design rerouting, size strategic stocks and choose sourcing portfolios that hold up across disruption scenarios.
01Register
Optimisation for trade and supply on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodOptimisation and operations research
- Applied inTrade and Strategic Resources
- Data3 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What optimisation and operations research does here.
Optimisation and operations research develop mathematical methods for allocating resources and making decisions under constraints. They support planning and logistics in complex, interconnected systems. In trade, resources and supply chains and industry and robotics, optimisation supports prepositioning of supplies, network investment and recovery sequencing. Robust formulations help choose options that perform acceptably across many scenarios. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Strategic stock sizing
Stock levels for essential inputs are set by comparing holding costs with expected shortage costs across disruption scenarios.
Sourcing portfolio design
Supplier mixes are optimised for cost and resilience, showing how much diversification reduces exposure for a given price premium.
03Simulator
A shock through an input-output economy.
A loss of output in one sector propagates through the technical coefficients to its suppliers and customers, and recovers at the rate you set; the coefficients are teaching values, not national accounts. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
Controls
- Sector hit first (position in the list)
- 0
- Size of the shock
- 30% of its output
- Duration of the shock
- 30 days
- Recovery rate
- 0.08 per day
- Days simulated
- 180 days
Readouts
- Output lost over the run
- 0.61% of a year’s output
- Total over direct (multiplier)
- 1.62 times
- Most affected other sector
- Services
- Its peak inoperability
- 3.9%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Sector | Peak inoperability (%) | Output weight (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 30.85 | 14.6 |
| Energy | 2.83 | 16.5 |
| Manufacturing | 0.50 | 19.5 |
| Transport and ports | 0.34 | 12.0 |
| Trade | 0.23 | 19.8 |
| Services | 3.91 | 17.6 |
Methods
- Input-output analysis Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press
- Inoperability input-output model Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7
- Dynamic inoperability and recovery Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Seaports Natural Earth
- Maritime chokepoints Nexus (named straits and canals at their published coordinates)
- Railways Natural Earth
- Major roads Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Trade and Strategic Resources in Foundry
- Tested at Trade and Strategic Resources in Universe
- Codified in Industry, Trade and Supply Chains in Standards
- Published in Trade and Strategic Resources in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Finance and Economics in Academy
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by optimisation and operations research on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Shipping routes and port capacities | Network constraints | ESTIMATED |
| Disruption scenarios | Uncertainty | MODELLED |
| Input costs and demand | Objectives | OBSERVED |
05Methods and evidence
How optimisation for trade and supply is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in optimisation for trade and supply: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06Validation
How results are checked.
Solutions are checked for feasibility, tested through simulation and compared with historical decisions. Sensitivity analysis examines how results change with parameters.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Out-of-sample scenarios | Solutions are tested on scenarios not used to choose them |
| Operator review | Route and capacity constraints are checked with logistics operators |
| Trade-off reporting | Cost and resilience trade-offs are shown as a frontier |
Optimal solutions can be fragile when assumptions are wrong. Objectives may omit values that are hard to quantify.
07Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
08Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Systems Science and Modelling stewards optimisation and operations research for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
09Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
10Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of optimisation and operations research in this field?
Optimal solutions can be fragile when assumptions are wrong. Objectives may omit values that are hard to quantify.
How are results checked?
Solutions are checked for feasibility, tested through simulation and compared with historical decisions. Sensitivity analysis examines how results change with parameters.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
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GCRITrade and Strategic ResourcesStrategic SystemsScenario and Stress-Test
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