GCRI · 气候与灾害
方法与不确定性
The methods Climate and Hazards relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
The workspace for methods and uncertainty.
证据分级
Methods and uncertainty · Review wave 2 · Example interface, not a record
按标准划分的确定性
0 低至 100 高
数值越高越确定。数值为示例。
审查队列
- R-1Heat index days above threshold第二审查人1 天后到期
- R-2Extreme rainfall, 1-in-100 depth第二审查人1 天后到期
- R-3火险天气指数第二审查人1 天后到期
Climate and Hazards · Evidence grading. 证据分级：示例名称与示意数值，不是记录。
使用中的方法。
- 01气候与大气科学变化的检测与归因 · 极端事件归因 · 基于过程的模型评估在此应用
- 02地球与地球物理科学震源特征描述 · 地面形变监测 · 场地条件制图在此应用
- 03预测与时间序列分析集合预报解读 · 季节展望的应用 · 预报检验在此应用
- 04极值理论与尾部风险重现水平估计 · 非平稳极端事件 · 区域频率分析在此应用
- 05地球观测与遥感洪水范围制图 · 植被与干旱监测 · 活跃火点与过火面积在此应用
- 06空间统计与地统计站点数据插值 · 卫星与雨量计数据融合 · 事件的空间聚类在此应用
- 07高性能计算、云计算与边缘计算集合的运行与存储 · 贴近数据的分析 · 观测的边缘处理在此应用
- 08水文学与水科学流域洪水建模 · 干旱传播 · 气候变化下的洪水频率在此应用
- 09海洋与海岸科学极端海平面分析 · 海洋热浪探测 · 气候模态监测在此应用
- 10空间系统与卫星服务观测连续性规划 · 用于预警的卫星通信在此应用
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- 气候科学Role hereClimate and atmospheric science is the core science this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedMulti-dataset comparison; Calibrated confidence; Model fitness
- 地球科学Role hereEarth and geophysical science explains the solid-Earth hazards: earthquakes, volcanic activity, tsunamis, landslides and subsidence.Checks appliedCatalogue completeness; Logic-tree sensitivity; Ground truth for deformation
- 预测Role hereForecasting and time-series analysis supply the predictive side of hazard evidence: weather and flood forecasts, seasonal outlooks and statistical predictions.Checks appliedProper scoring rules; Reliability diagrams; Reference comparison
- 极值Role hereExtreme value statistics estimate how large and how frequent rare events can be from limited records.Checks appliedGoodness of fit in the tail; Confidence intervals; Stationarity tests
- 地球观测Role hereEarth observation and remote sensing measure hazards and their footprints from space and the air: rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation, fire, flood extent and ground deformation.Checks appliedAccuracy assessment; Cross-sensor consistency; Detection limits
- 空间统计Role hereSpatial statistics and geostatistics interpolate, smooth and compare hazard data across space.Checks appliedCross-validation; Variogram review; Uncertainty maps
- ComputingRole hereHigh-performance, cloud and edge computing run the models and handle the data volumes that hazard science needs.Checks appliedBit-for-bit reproducibility; Format and metadata compliance; Resource accounting
- 水文学Role hereHydrology explains how rainfall becomes streamflow, floods, soil moisture and groundwater.Checks appliedSplit-sample testing; Rating curve review; Multi-model comparison
- Ocean scienceRole hereOcean and coastal science supplies the marine drivers of climate hazards: sea-level rise, storm surge, waves, marine heatwaves and the ocean’s role in cyclones and climate variability.Checks appliedVertical land motion; Climatology consistency; Projection traceability
- 空间系统Role hereSpace systems and satellite services provide the observation, communication and positioning that hazard monitoring and warning depend on.Checks appliedMission status verification; Single-mission dependency; Data latency
流程如何运行。
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
10 steps·4 个阶段·2 道关口
流程
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
A source is registered and assessed, its record labelled and classified, and a Digital Evidence Passport carries provenance; a correction reaches every dependent record.
01 受理
- 01识别来源来源 · 来源管理方发现不等于纳入。来源识别记录来源类别、管理方、机构角色和管辖范围。
- 03登记来源步骤登记使已发现的来源成为证据生命周期中受治理的参与方。它不意味着任何背书或认证。
02 评估
- 04管辖范围与权利分类关口权利分类识别许可、同意、保密和再利用限制。其结果决定访问和流转路径。
- 05证据质量评估步骤质量评估决定一条记录是否适合既定用途。质量是多维度的，绝不是单一分数。
- 06证据标签步骤每项发现都带有九种证据标签之一。缺失数据显示为缺失，绝不显示为零。
03 记录
04 使用与更正
- 02更正传达到依赖记录步骤 · NXS-GRX（规范数据、来源追溯与风险）来源更正会传递到依赖它的切片和产品，而不改写旧结果。
- 10公开安全审查关口可公开审查决定一条记录能否公开共享。这是一个独立阶段，并非验证。
数据协议：证据生命周期 · Data protocols: core data objects and evidence records · The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX)Designed programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The data-protocol pages describe a design, not a running system.
Where uncertainty in hazard analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| 来源 | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Emission pathway | Dominates late-century change | Results by scenario, never averaged across scenarios |
| Model structure | Dominant for regional precipitation and extremes | Multi-model ensembles with spread |
| Internal variability | Dominant for the next decades locally | Large ensembles |
| Observational baseline | Station density and reanalysis bias | Comparison of products |
| Rare-event statistics | Short records for extremes | Confidence intervals on return levels |
Projections carry IPCC calibrated language where they draw on assessed findings.
如何报告不确定性。
- 01
说明假设
每项分析都列出其假设及其所依赖的数据。
- 02
尽可能量化
在报告中心估计值的同时报告区间与置信度。
- 03
验证与比较
模型会对照观测数据进行核查，并在可能时与其他模型进行对照。
- 04
发布限制
分析无法说明的内容与其能够说明的内容并列陈述。
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
方法是开放的吗？
从本页贡献证据。
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