The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Economies are networks of sectors, households, firms, governments and financial institutions linked by flows of goods, labour, money and information. A shock to one part moves through these links. This page sets out the causal, physical, economic, social and ecological links between economic development and other systems, as part of the field overview.
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Dependencies and consequences in Economic Development describe how economic development and development finance connect to other systems through physical, economic, social and ecological links, and how stress travels along them toward fields such as those of Capital Nexus and Development Finance Nexus. Every dependency map states its assumptions, data and uncertainty; it describes connections, not a forecast.
Fig.How GCRI, GRF and GRA share one field while the authorities decide. Design, not a record.
The working screen behind this subject: its structure, terms and states. Names are placeholders and values illustrative.
| Channel | Mechanism | Typical consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Supply chains | Loss of output in one sector reduces inputs for others | Production falls in sectors far from the original shock |
| Prices | Food, fuel and import prices rise | Real incomes fall, especially for poorer households |
| Labour markets | Firms reduce hours or close | Unemployment and informal work increase |
| Public finance | Revenues fall while spending needs rise | Deficits widen and investment is cut |
| Finance | Credit tightens and capital leaves | Firms and governments cannot fund recovery |
Production depends on water, energy, land, ecosystems and infrastructure. Floods and storms destroy capital stock; heat reduces labour productivity, especially outdoors; drought reduces agricultural output and hydropower; and degraded ecosystems reduce the services, such as pollination and flood regulation, on which economic activity depends.
These links are studied with the GCRI field platforms, including Climate and Hazards and the Water Nexus.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Interdependency | A two-way dependency between infrastructures, such as power needing telecoms for control while telecoms need power to run. |
| Cascading risk | Risk that a failure in one system or component triggers failures in others that depend on it. |
| Compound event | Two or more hazards or drivers occurring together or in sequence whose joint impact exceeds what either would cause alone, such as drought followed by intense rain; IPCC assessments use the term. |
| Dependency mapping | Tracing the people, processes, technology, facilities and suppliers a service relies on. |
Shocks compound when buffers are thin: low savings, high debt, little fiscal space and weak social protection. They also compound when they arrive together, so the economy has no time to recover between them. Feedback loops, such as falling demand causing further layoffs, can turn a moderate shock into a recession.
Modelling uses input-output and network methods from network science and contagion and agent-based methods from complex systems and agent-based modelling, developed with Systems Science and Modelling. At The Global Risks Alliance (GRA), Public Finance and Sovereign Debt builds industry understanding of how these pressures reach sovereign debt.
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