GCRI · Economic Development
Dependencies and consequences
Economies are networks of sectors, households, firms, governments and financial institutions linked by flows of goods, labour, money and information. A shock to one part moves through these links. This page sets out the causal, physical, economic, social and ecological links between economic development and other systems, as part of the field overview.
- STEM methods
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- Canonical methods this field applies
- Topics
- 8
- Subject pages in the field
- Counterparts
- 4
- Platforms in shared fields across the network
- Report series
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- Reports series it contributes to
How shocks move through an economy.
| Channel | Mechanism | Typical consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Supply chains | Loss of output in one sector reduces inputs for others | Production falls in sectors far from the original shock |
| Prices | Food, fuel and import prices rise | Real incomes fall, especially for poorer households |
| Labour markets | Firms reduce hours or close | Unemployment and informal work increase |
| Public finance | Revenues fall while spending needs rise | Deficits widen and investment is cut |
| Finance | Credit tightens and capital leaves | Firms and governments cannot fund recovery |
Activity and hazards in Africa.
Night lights, population density and true-colour imagery over Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Activity and hazards, for this page
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Activity and hazards, framed on Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (7 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
The economy rests on natural and built systems.
Production depends on water, energy, land, ecosystems and infrastructure. Floods and storms destroy capital stock; heat reduces labour productivity, especially outdoors; drought reduces agricultural output and hydropower; and degraded ecosystems reduce the services, such as pollination and flood regulation, on which economic activity depends.
These links are studied with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) field platforms, including Climate and Hazards and the Water Nexus.
Field overview.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Who bears the costs.
Coping and poverty traps
Selling assets or cutting education to cope can lower future income, creating poverty traps.
Regional divergence
Shocks concentrated in particular regions can leave lasting gaps. See regional economic development.
Social cohesion
Rapid falls in living standards can strain trust in institutions, studied with Society and Human Development.
Why effects compound, and how they are studied.
Shocks compound when buffers are thin: low savings, high debt, little fiscal space and weak social protection. They also compound when they arrive together, so the economy has no time to recover between them. Feedback loops, such as falling demand causing further layoffs, can turn a moderate shock into a recession.
Modelling uses input-output and network methods from network science and contagion and agent-based methods from complex systems and agent-based modelling, developed with Systems Science and Modelling. At The Global Risks Alliance (GRA), Public Finance and Sovereign Debt builds industry understanding of how these pressures reach sovereign debt.
Questions and answers.
Which channel matters most?
Can models predict a recession?
Where are the methods documented?
Why do poorer households suffer most from shocks?
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