GCRI · Fields across the Consortium
Sovereign and public finance
Sovereign and public finance is where systemic shocks end up: governments are insurers of last resort, and their capacity to respond depends on debt, revenue and the contingent liabilities they carry.
01Three mandates
The field, seen three ways.
GCRI
Science and evidence
No platform yet in this field.
GRA
Financial understanding
Sovereign Capital Nexus, Disaster Risk Finance, Public Finance and Sovereign Debt.
02Geography
Activity and exposure worldwide.
Night lights, population density and flood water across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Activity and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- MODIS Terra EVI (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite index; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite vegetation index for the 8 days to the date shown, a habitat condition indicator; not a measure of species or biodiversity.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Activity and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Optional layers (6 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
03The systemic question
Contingent liabilities and fiscal risk.
Disasters, bank rescues, state-owned enterprise losses and pension shortfalls create contingent liabilities that rarely appear in headline debt. Fiscal risk statements and public financial management assessments make them visible. GCRI’s contribution is quantifying the physical and systemic shocks behind them.
04Simulator
Debt dynamics under uncertainty.
The debt ratio evolves by the interest-growth differential and the primary balance; 500 paths with shocks to growth and rates give the fan, the way debt sustainability analyses show it. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
- Median, 25% to 75% and 10% to 90% bands
- No shocks
Controls
- Debt today
- 70% of GDP
- Effective nominal interest rate
- 5.0%
- Nominal GDP growth
- 4.5%
- Primary balance
- −0.5% of GDP
- Volatility of growth
- 2.0 points
- Volatility of the interest rate
- 1.0 points
- Years ahead
- 10 years
- Threshold of concern
- 90% of GDP
Readouts
- Median debt at the horizon
- 79% of GDP
- Paths above the threshold at the horizon
- 3%
- Primary balance that stabilises debt
- 0.3% of GDP
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | 10% | 25% | Median | 75% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 |
| 1 | 69.1 | 70.0 | 71.0 | 72.0 | 73.1 |
| 2 | 69.0 | 70.4 | 71.9 | 73.5 | 74.9 |
| 3 | 69.0 | 70.9 | 72.8 | 74.8 | 76.0 |
| 4 | 69.1 | 71.5 | 73.9 | 75.8 | 78.1 |
| 5 | 70.0 | 72.1 | 74.6 | 77.2 | 79.3 |
| 6 | 70.2 | 72.8 | 75.5 | 78.5 | 80.7 |
| 7 | 70.9 | 73.4 | 76.2 | 79.4 | 82.1 |
| 8 | 71.3 | 73.8 | 77.6 | 80.6 | 83.3 |
| 9 | 71.7 | 75.0 | 78.2 | 81.6 | 84.8 |
| 10 | 72.2 | 75.6 | 79.0 | 82.8 | 86.2 |
Methods
- Debt dynamics and the interest-growth differential Blanchard (2019), Public debt and low interest rates, American Economic Review 109
- Stochastic fan charts Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006), IMF Staff Papers 53
- Sovereign risk and debt sustainability framework IMF (2022), Staff Guidance Note on the SRDSF
Data
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs at GCRI: Labs
- Built in Foundry at GCRI: Foundry
- Tested at Universe at GCRI: Universe technical office
- Codified in Nexus Standards
- Published in Reports at GCRI: Publish
- Taught in Risk Academy
05Frameworks
Public finance references.
| Framework or body | What it governs or supplies |
|---|---|
| PEFA framework | Public financial management performance |
| IMF Fiscal Monitor and fiscal transparency work | Fiscal risks and debt |
| Sendai target C | Economic loss in relation to GDP |
06Twin and cascade simulator
Model sovereign and public finance as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Disaster and climate risk finance: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Tropical cyclone
- Earthquake
- Ice-jam flood
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Aftershock sequence (set off downstream)
- Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
- Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
- Slope slide (set off downstream)
- Rockfall (set off downstream)
- Tsunami (set off downstream)
- Building collapse (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-F8Parametric and index-based risk transferNRS-F7Disaster risk finance and pre-arranged financeNRS-H113Hazard family: Financial-system fragility (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)NRS-H114Hazard family: Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks (NHS-1 soc.macro-fiscal)NRS-D1Risk-informed development and project screeningNRS-H28Hazard family: Climate-state shifts (NHS-1 eco.climate-state)
Observation
- ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- CHIRPS quasi-global gridded precipitation (listed for reference)
- USGS earthquake GeoJSON summary feeds (listed for reference)
- Total public international support for national disaster risk reduction actions (Sendai indicator F-1)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
Example geography
- Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
07Couplings
Fiscal capacity across fields.
Disaster loss analysis on Disaster Resilience and Recovery, development analysis on Economic Development; governance and finance platforms are listed below.
09Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
10Questions
Questions and answers.
Why does GCRI host field gateways?
GCRI hosts the shared references of the Consortium, including the STEM Commons and the field gateways, so each field has one place that links all three institutions’ work.
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