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Trade, resources and supply chains

Trade and supply-chain risk concerns the concentration of production, processing and transit in few places and few firms, and the policy choices that can turn that concentration into leverage.

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01Three mandates

The field, seen three ways.

GRF

Governance and dialogue

No platform yet in this field.

GRA

Financial understanding

No platform yet in this field.

02Geography

Ocean state worldwide.

Marine heat, chlorophyll and sea temperature across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Ocean state, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
GHRSST MUR25 (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)
Provider
NASA JPL PO.DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite analysis
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite analysis of how far sea temperature departs from its usual value for the date shown; a marine heat indicator, not a coral bleaching alert.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds and sun glint leave gaps)
Source
MODIS Aqua ocean colour (NASA OB.DAAC)
Provider
NASA OB.DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds and sun glint leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-13
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite estimate of chlorophyll-a near the sea surface on the day shown, an indicator of plankton and ocean productivity; not a measure of fish stocks or harmful blooms.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
GHRSST MUR (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)
Provider
NASA JPL PO.DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite analysis
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Gap-filled satellite analysis of sea surface temperature for the date shown; not a reef or species condition report.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
Provider
NASA LAADS DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
Source
MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
Provider
NASA LP DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2024-01-01
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Ocean state, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA PACE OCI · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS Aqua ocean colour, NASA Ocean Biology Processing Group; distributed by the NASA Ocean Biology DAAC (OB.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA PACE OCI. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Ocean chlorophyll-a concentration: MODIS Aqua ocean colour, NASA OB.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Sea surface temperature: GHRSST MUR, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024

03The systemic question

Concentration, chokepoints and weaponised interdependence.

A supply chain is as resilient as its least substitutable node. For many critical minerals, refining is more concentrated than mining; for semiconductors, a few fabs and tool suppliers dominate. Maritime chokepoints carry a large share of seaborne trade. Measuring this requires firm-level and product-level network data that public statistics only partly provide.

  • Herfindahl-type concentration indices by stage, not only by country of mining.
  • Inventory and lead-time buffers as the real shock absorbers.
  • Export controls and restrictions as policy shocks with their own contagion.
04Simulator

A shock through an input-output economy.

A loss of output in one sector propagates through the technical coefficients to its suppliers and customers, and recovers at the rate you set; the coefficients are teaching values, not national accounts. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.

Controls

Sector hit first (position in the list)
0
Size of the shock
30% of its output
Duration of the shock
30 days
Recovery rate
0.08 per day
Days simulated
180 days

Readouts

Output lost over the run
0.59% of a year’s output
Total over direct (multiplier)
1.64 times
Most affected other sector
Services
Its peak inoperability
2.6%
Numbers, methods and sources
SectorPeak inoperability (%)Output weight (%)
Agriculture29.3613.0
Energy2.3519.5
Manufacturing2.5124.7
Transport and ports0.5211.1
Trade1.6317.6
Services2.5914.2

Methods

  1. Input-output analysis Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press
  2. Inoperability input-output model Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7
  3. Dynamic inoperability and recovery Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9
  4. Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  5. One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

Data

The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:

  • Seaports Natural Earth
  • Maritime chokepoints Nexus (named straits and canals at their published coordinates)
  • Railways Natural Earth
  • Major roads Natural Earth
A shock through an input-output economy. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: Input-output analysis (Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press); Inoperability input-output model (Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7); Dynamic inoperability and recovery (Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9).

Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium

05Frameworks

Rules, data and due diligence.

Framework or bodyWhat it governs or supplies
WTO agreements and trade monitoringRules on export restrictions and transparency of trade measures
UN Comtrade and national customs dataProduct-level trade flows
OECD Due Diligence Guidance for responsible mineral supply chainsRisk-based due diligence for minerals from conflict-affected and high-risk areas
Basel ConventionTransboundary movement of hazardous waste, relevant to recycling chains
06Twin and cascade simulator

Model trade, resources and supply chains as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Supply chain and trade risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Dam failure
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-12 Software, model and AI/ML artefacts (supply chain, model cards, dataset sheets)
  • NRS-H60 Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)
  • NRS-X4 Trade, transport and supply chains risk
  • NRS-H89 Hazard family: Transport network disruption (NHS-1 infra.mobility)
  • NRS-K38 Domain pack profile: Supply chain trade (DOMAIN-038)
  • NRS-H43 Hazard family: Livestock and aquaculture epizootics (NHS-1 health.animal-health)
  • NRS-M10 Method fabric: Markets, trade and supply chains

Observation

  • IMF PortWatch port activity and chokepoint disruptions (listed for reference)
  • Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (listed for reference)
  • OECD Data Explorer (SDMX API) (listed for reference)
  • World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
  • Developing countries’ and least developed countries’ share of global exports
  • Passenger and freight volumes, by mode of transport

Example geography

  • The Strait of Malacca: 227 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
07Couplings

Trade as a transmitter.

  • Food: grain corridors and export restrictions.
  • Energy: fuels and transition minerals.
  • Industry: just-in-time manufacturing.
  • Oceans: ports and chokepoints.

The science sits on Trade and Strategic Resources; methods start from network science.

08Grounding

The methods behind the field.

09Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

10Questions

Questions and answers.

Why does GCRI host field gateways?
GCRI hosts the shared references of the Consortium, including the STEM Commons and the field gateways, so each field has one place that links all three institutions’ work.
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