GCRI · Fields across the Consortium
Spatial intelligenceObservations, models and their uncertainty in one view
Health and biosecurity
Health systemic risk is the chance that an outbreak, a supply shock or a slow threat such as antimicrobial resistance overwhelms detection and care. It also strains the social systems that keep people able to isolate, work and eat.
Health and biosecurity in six parts.
- 01Three mandatesThe field, seen three ways
- 02The systemic questionSurge capacity, supply chains and the time to detect
- 03FrameworksInternational law and assessment frameworks
- 04CouplingsWhere health risk meets other fields
- 05GroundingThe methods behind the field
- 06SourcesWhere this page's references lead
The field, seen three ways.
Environmental exposure worldwide.
Population density, daytime surface heat, haze and true-colour imagery across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 4
Environmental exposure, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Environmental exposure, framed on World. Layers as NASA publishes them, each with its own date.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (14 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
Surge capacity, supply chains and the time to detect.
The consequence of an outbreak depends less on the pathogen than on three things. How quickly it is detected. How much surge capacity care and laboratories have. Whether supply chains for diagnostics, medicines and protective equipment hold when every country needs them at once. Most of these are capacities that can be assessed in advance.
- Detection: event-based and indicator-based surveillance, genomic sequencing access, reporting timeliness.
- Response: health-workforce surge, intensive-care capacity, laboratory throughput.
- Supply: concentration of active pharmaceutical ingredient production and of medical countermeasure manufacturing.
- Society: sick pay, social protection and trust, which set whether public health measures are followed.
SEIR on a network of places.
An outbreak seeded in one place spreads through a small-world network by the share of contacts people make elsewhere; play it to see the order of arrival and how the timing of measures moves the peak. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
Controls
- Basic reproduction number R0
- 2.5
- Latent period
- 3.0 days
- Infectious period
- 5.0 days
- Share of contacts made in other places
- 8 %
- Places in the network
- 24
- Measures start on day
- 40
- Contact reduction from measures
- 40 %
- Days simulated
- 240 days
Readouts
- Peak new infections
- 4.58 per 1,000 a day
- Day of the peak
- 163
- Share ever infected
- 55 %
- Places reached
- 100 %
- Reproduction number under measures
- 1.50
Numbers, methods and sources
| Day | New infections per 1,000 | Cumulative infected (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| 17 | 0.02 | 0.0 |
| 34 | 0.18 | 0.1 |
| 51 | 0.55 | 0.8 |
| 68 | 1.08 | 2.2 |
| 85 | 1.82 | 4.7 |
| 102 | 2.59 | 8.5 |
| 119 | 3.23 | 13.5 |
| 136 | 3.85 | 19.5 |
| 153 | 4.44 | 26.6 |
| 170 | 4.52 | 34.4 |
| 187 | 3.93 | 41.6 |
| 204 | 3.17 | 47.6 |
| 221 | 2.33 | 52.2 |
| 238 | 1.42 | 55.4 |
Methods
- SEIR compartments Kermack and McKendrick (1927), Proc. R. Soc. A 115
- Metapopulation coupling by mobility Balcan and others (2009), PNAS 106
- Small-world network Watts and Strogatz (1998), Nature 393
- Modelling infectious diseases Keeling and Rohani (2008), Princeton University Press
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualizing uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page's map can draw:
- Cities Natural Earth
- Airports Natural Earth
- Major roads Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs at GCRI: Nexus Labs
- Built in Foundry at GCRI: Nexus Foundry
- Tested at Universe at GCRI: Nexus Universe technical office
- Codified in Health and Biosecurity on Nexus Standards
- Published in Reports at GCRI: Publish
- Taught in Health systems and health care resilience on Risk Academy
International law and assessment frameworks.
| Framework or body | What it governs or supplies |
|---|---|
| International Health Regulations (2005), with the amendments adopted in 2024 | Core capacities, notification duties and the pandemic emergency category |
| WHO Pandemic Agreement | Adopted in 2025; it opens for signature only after its pathogen access and benefit-sharing annex is adopted |
| IHR Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (SPAR, Joint External Evaluation) | Self-assessment and voluntary external evaluation of capacities |
| One Health Joint Plan of Action | Coordination across human, animal, plant and environmental health |
Model health and biosecurity as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification.
Hazards
- Dam failure
- Financial contagion
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
- Currency crisis (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Global and systemic risk
- Compound and cascading hazard standards Mechanism
- Financial stability and prudential risk Mechanism
- Supply chain and trade risk Cascade
- Future generations and long-term risk Common driver
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-H120Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)NRS-C6Systemic and cascading riskNRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H94Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)NRS-H60Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)
Observation
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
- Macroeconomic Dashboard
Example geography
- Bangladesh: 134 H3 hexagons at resolution 4
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
Where health risk meets other fields.
- Nature: land-use change and wildlife trade shape spillover risk.
- Food: animal disease and nutrition status set exposure and vulnerability.
- Climate: heat and vector range shifts.
- Work and society: the capacity of households to follow public health measures.
The science sits on Health Nexus; methods start from epidemiology.
The nexus signature of health and biosecurity.
The sectors health and biosecurity touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Signature
Health and its partners
Health gives workforce for operations to infrastructure (0.3), farm labour to food (0.3) and utility workforce to water (0.2).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.42 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Food → Health · nutrition0.7
- Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
- Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
The methods behind the field.
- Epidemiology and public health science
- Molecular and life sciences
- Probability and statistics
- Complex systems and agent-based modelling
- Causal inference and impact evaluation
- Data engineering, interoperability and stewardship
- Biotechnology platforms
- Agricultural, soil and food science
- Process and industrial safety engineering
- Policy, institutional and decision science
- Actuarial mathematics
- Extreme value theory and tail risk
- Climate and atmospheric science
- Artificial intelligence and machine learning
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
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The same subject across the Consortium.
- GRFglobalriskforum.comHealth and Biosecurity GovernanceMandates, commitments and accountability
- GRAglobalriskalliance.comHealth and life insuranceExposure, loss and capital
- Nexus Standardsnexustandards.comHealth and BiosecurityStandards that apply
- Risk Academyrisksacademy.comHealth systems and health care resilienceWhere it is taught
- Nexus Reportstherisk.globalBiotechnology and Biosecurity in Nexus ReportsWhere it is reported
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