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Climate and hazards

Climate risk, in the IPCC sense, combines hazard, exposure and vulnerability, plus the risk the responses themselves create. The hard problems are compound extremes, regional detail and decisions that must be made before the uncertainty narrows.

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01Three mandates

The field, seen three ways.

02Geography

Water now worldwide.

Rain, daytime surface heat and root-zone soil moisture across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Water now, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)
Provider
NASA GES DISC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite estimate, near real time
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
Newest at build
2026-09-14
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled
Source
SMAP Level 4 (NASA NSIDC DAAC)
Provider
NASA NSIDC DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Model with satellite data assimilated
Newest at build
2026-10-11
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Model with satellite data assimilated. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
GHRSST MUR25 (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)
Provider
NASA JPL PO.DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite analysis
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite analysis of how far sea temperature departs from its usual value for the date shown; a marine heat indicator, not a coral bleaching alert.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Water now, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA SMAP · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • SMAP Level 4 soil moisture and snow mass, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA SMAP. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
  • Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (14 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Root-zone soil moisture, 0 to 100 cm: SMAP Level 4, NASA NSIDC DAAC · 11 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026

03The systemic question

Compound and concurrent extremes, not averages.

Global mean warming is well constrained; what decision-makers need is less so. Heat waves coinciding with drought, sequential cyclones in one season, and simultaneous crop-failure years across breadbaskets are where losses become systemic. IPCC AR6 Working Group I assessed, with high confidence, an increasing frequency of concurrent hot and dry events. Working Group II framed risk to include the risks of maladaptation and of mitigation responses.

QuestionMethod classMain uncertainty
How often will this extreme recur?Extreme value analysis on observed and simulated seriesNon-stationarity, short records
Was this event made more likely?Probabilistic event attributionModel fitness for the event type
What will this region look like?Downscaled ensembles (CMIP, CORDEX)Structural model spread and emission pathway
Where do extremes coincide?Multivariate and spatially compound analysisDependence structure in the tails
04Simulator

Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold.

Two stocks, pressure and adaptive capacity, joined by a reinforcing growth loop, a delayed balancing response and damage when pressure outruns capacity; past the threshold the system can tip. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.

Controls

Growth of pressure
6.0% a year
Efficacy of capacity in reducing pressure
4.0% a year
Investment response to perceived pressure
20%
Perception delay
4.0 years
Tipping threshold of pressure
60 index
Amplification past the threshold
2.0 times
Years simulated
50 years

Readouts

Peak pressure
113 index
Capacity at the end
186 index
Years over the threshold
15.8 years
Numbers, methods and sources
YearPressureCapacityPerceived
020.050.020.0
423.344.921.2
827.242.224.0
1231.742.327.7
1636.845.532.2
2042.351.537.2
2447.960.342.6
2853.271.348.0
3257.884.353.1
3666.498.458.4
4082.7115.969.7
4497.8139.783.8
48109.1169.497.3

Methods

  1. System dynamics Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics
  2. Critical transitions and tipping points Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461
  3. Causal loop diagram Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill
  4. Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  5. One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

Data

No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.

Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: System dynamics (Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics); Critical transitions and tipping points (Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461); Causal loop diagram (Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill).

Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium

05Frameworks

Bodies and agreements that set the terms.

Framework or bodyWhat it governs or supplies
IPCC assessment reportsAssessed physical science, impacts and response options; AR7 is in preparation
Paris Agreement and the Global Goal on AdaptationMitigation commitments and the adaptation goal’s framework and indicators
WMO and the Global Framework for Climate ServicesObservations, standards and climate services to national bodies
Early Warnings for AllAim of universal early-warning coverage, with hazard monitoring as one of four pillars
ISO 14090 seriesAdaptation planning principles for organisations
06Twin and cascade simulator

Model climate and hazards as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Dam failure
  • Financial contagion
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
  • Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
  • Currency crisis (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-14 Conformance and crosswalk to external standards
  • NRS-H120 Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-H61 Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)
  • NRS-H62 Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)
  • NRS-H94 Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)
  • NRS-H60 Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)

Observation

  • INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
  • World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
  • IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
  • Macroeconomic Dashboard

Example geography

  • Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
07Couplings

Where climate risk turns into other risks.

  • Into water and food, through precipitation change, heat and evaporative demand.
  • Into insurance and sovereign finance, through insured loss, protection gaps and post-disaster spending.
  • Into health, through heat mortality and vector range shifts.

Hazard science is on Climate and Hazards; methods start from climate science.

08Grounding

The methods behind the field.

09Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

10Questions

Questions and answers.

Why does GCRI host field gateways?
GCRI hosts the shared references of the Consortium, including the STEM Commons and the field gateways, so each field has one place that links all three institutions’ work.
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