GCRI · Fields across the Consortium
Spatial intelligenceObservations, models and their uncertainty in one view
Governance and institutions
Governance of systemic risk is the problem of assigning responsibility for risks that no single institution owns, and of deciding with incomplete evidence without either paralysis or overreach.
Governance and institutions in six parts.
The field, seen three ways.
Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold.
Two stocks, pressure and adaptive capacity, joined by a reinforcing growth loop, a delayed balancing response and damage when pressure outruns capacity; past the threshold the system can tip. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
Controls
- Growth of pressure
- 6.0 % a year
- Efficacy of capacity in reducing pressure
- 4.0 % a year
- Investment response to perceived pressure
- 20 %
- Perception delay
- 4.0 years
- Tipping threshold of pressure
- 60 index
- Amplification past the threshold
- 2.0 times
- Years simulated
- 50 years
Readouts
- Peak pressure
- 113 index
- Capacity at the end
- 186 index
- Years over the threshold
- 15.8 years
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Pressure | Capacity | Perceived |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 |
| 4 | 23.3 | 44.9 | 21.2 |
| 8 | 27.2 | 42.2 | 24.0 |
| 12 | 31.7 | 42.3 | 27.7 |
| 16 | 36.8 | 45.5 | 32.2 |
| 20 | 42.3 | 51.5 | 37.2 |
| 24 | 47.9 | 60.3 | 42.6 |
| 28 | 53.2 | 71.3 | 48.0 |
| 32 | 57.8 | 84.3 | 53.1 |
| 36 | 66.4 | 98.4 | 58.4 |
| 40 | 82.7 | 115.9 | 69.7 |
| 44 | 97.8 | 139.7 | 83.8 |
| 48 | 109.1 | 169.4 | 97.3 |
Methods
- System dynamics Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics
- Critical transitions and tipping points Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461
- Causal loop diagram Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualizing uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme's own evidence.
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs at GCRI: Nexus Labs
- Built in Foundry at GCRI: Nexus Foundry
- Tested at Universe at GCRI: Nexus Universe technical office
- Codified in Foundations and Governance on Nexus Standards
- Published in Reports at GCRI: Publish
- Taught in Research, evidence and the science-policy interface on Risk Academy
Ownerless risks and coordination.
The IRGC risk governance framework distinguishes simple, complex, uncertain and ambiguous risks and matches each with a style of governance: routine regulation, expert deliberation, precaution, or broad stakeholder discourse. Systemic risks tend to be all four at once, which is why mandates, coordination bodies and records of who decided what matter.
- Mandate mapping: which authority can act on which part of a risk.
- Coordination mechanisms across ministries and levels of government.
- Accountability records that survive staff and government turnover.
Governance references.
| Framework or body | What it governs or supplies |
|---|---|
| OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks | Whole-of-government risk governance |
| IRGC risk governance framework | Pre-assessment, appraisal, characterisation, management and communication |
| Sendai Framework priority two | Strengthening disaster risk governance |
Governance across the Consortium.
- Records and identifiers on Nexus Registry.
- Technical assistance through Nexus Agency.
- Governance dialogue at GRF; this gateway lists its platforms below.
The methods behind the field.
- Data engineering, interoperability and stewardship
- Digital identity and public digital systems
- Cybersecurity and cryptography
- Systems engineering
- Decision analysis under uncertainty
- Policy, institutional and decision science
- Probability and statistics
- Causal inference and impact evaluation
- Game theory and mechanism design
- Financial economics and macro-finance
- Artificial intelligence and machine learning
- Network science and contagion
- Distributed ledgers and digital assets
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Questions and answers.
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The same subject across the Consortium.
- GRFglobalriskforum.comResearch NexusMandates, commitments and accountability
- GRAglobalriskalliance.comFinancial Regulation NexusExposure, loss and capital
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