Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Disaster is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The year 2025 was below average for recorded disaster impact, and it was not quiet. EM-DAT recorded 358 natural-hazard disasters with 16,607 deaths, 110.2 million people affected and USD 169.7 billion in losses, against 2005 to 2024 annual averages of 377 disasters, 57,429 deaths, 169.0 million people affected and USD 215.0 billion1. Two earthquakes, in Myanmar and Afghanistan, caused most earthquake deaths1911. Disaster displacement fell 35% to 29.9 million movements and stayed 13% above the decade average2. Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a category 5 hurricane; the World Bank and IDB put physical damage at USD 8.8 billion, and the National Hurricane Center report cites USD 12.2 billion56. Insured natural catastrophe losses were USD 107 billion, and secondary perils such as wildfire, convective storm and flood made up 92% of them4. Warning coverage is growing: 119 countries report a multi-hazard early warning system, and mortality is nearly six times lower where systems are comprehensive3. The statistics understate heat. EM-DAT shows no extreme-temperature deaths for 2025, while an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths occurred in Europe in 2022 and 47,690 in 202311415. Failing lifelines and poverty carry loss beyond the hazard itself1213. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the disaster and resilience baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Recorded deaths, people affected and losses were below the 2005 to 2024 average, with no mega-disaster.1

    Was 2025 a bad year for disasters?Reported

  2. Asia held 72.8% of recorded deaths; earthquakes, floods and storms made up most of them.1

    Where did most deaths occur?Reported

  3. 29.9 million movements in 2025, below 2024 and above the decade average.2

    Are people still being displaced?Reported

  4. Mortality is nearly six times lower where systems are comprehensive; coverage is 60% of countries.3

    Do warnings work?Reported

  5. About 49% of 2025 natural catastrophe losses were insured; cover is far lower in emerging economies.4

    Who pays for losses?Reported

  6. Not on one basis. Europe alone had tens of thousands of heat deaths in 2022 and 2023.14151

    Is heat counted?Reported

  7. Disruption costs low- and middle-income countries USD 391 billion to USD 647 billion a year.13

    Do lifelines matter?Reported

  8. A major cyclone landfall where hospitals, power and communications fail together. SCN-GS08-CYC-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

Heat is the least counted hazard: Europe alone had an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths in summer 2022 and 47,690 in 2023, yet the recorded disaster total for 2025 shows no extreme-temperature deaths.

Figure S.1Heat-related deaths against recorded extreme-temperature deaths
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Europe, summer 2022 (estimated)61,672
Europe, 2023 (estimated)47,690
Worldwide, recorded annual average 2005 to 202413,586
Worldwide, recorded in 20250

Sources: Ballester et al.14; Gallo et al.15; EM-DAT1. Estimates and recorded counts use different bases and are not additive.

WHO estimates about 489,000 heat-related deaths a year worldwide in 2000 to 2019, 45% of them in Asia and 36% in Europe8. Disaster databases record far fewer because heat deaths are often recorded under other causes and counted late. EM-DAT notes that reporting delays kept 2025 heat deaths out of its total, and cites a provisional study of 16,469 preventable heat deaths in European cities in summer 20251. Adaptation matters: Europe’s 2023 burden would have been 80% higher without adaptation since 200015.

S.4At a glance

358events

recorded disasters, 20251

16,607deaths

recorded in disasters, 20251

29.9million

displacement movements, 20252

119countries

with multi-hazard early warning3

107USD billion

insured losses, 20254

1.81billion

people exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood16

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading disaster as a moment of coupling between hazard, exposure and capacity.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people disaster risk arrives as a flood, a heat wave or a lost home.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured losses are USD 107 billion, and most losses in emerging economies are uninsured.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The disaster system is well measured at the level of events and displacement and thinly measured at the level of heat, indirect deaths and lifeline performance.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of disaster risk and resilience worldwide and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a ranking of countries or hazards, a forecast of any event, an official warning, an insurance or investment recommendation, or an assessment of any agency, insurer, programme or government. Warnings, civil protection, relief and recovery rest with national authorities, communities and the agencies mandated to act.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 disaster and resilience edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 7.7, 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) earthquake, 28 March 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 11US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 6.0, near Asadabad, Afghanistan, 31 August 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Global Disaster and Resilience Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Disaster Risk and Resilience Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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