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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Disaster is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

CLI · Hazards

Natural-hazard disasters recorded

358events

2005 to 2024 average 377.

Reported2025EM-DAT1

HLT · Deaths

Deaths in recorded disasters

16,607people

average 57,429; heat deaths largely unreported.

Reported2025EM-DAT1

HLT · Displacement

Disaster displacement movements

29.9million

35% below 2024; 13% above the decade average.

Reported2025IDMC2

FIN · Finance

Insured natural catastrophe losses

107USD billion

economic losses USD 220 billion.

Reported2025Swiss Re4

GOV · Warning

Countries reporting multi-hazard early warning

119countries

60% of all countries; small island states 43%.

Reported2025UNDRR and WMO3

SYS · Cross-system

Insured losses in a peak-loss year (modelled)

320USD billion

a modelled peak-loss scenario for 2026.

Scenario2026Swiss Re4

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through disaster and resilience, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries disaster and resilience risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATFloods, storm surge and dry spells are the hazards that move through water systems; 1.81 billion people are exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood.CLI → WATReported EQL 4
ENEPower outages follow storms and quakes and disable clinics and pumps; Melissa caused power outages across much of Jamaica.INF ↔ ENEReported EQL 3
FOOFloods and dry spells destroy crops and livestock; Melissa left about 41,390 hectares of Jamaican farmland affected, and drought left 6.5 million people affected in Somalia.CLI → FOOReported EQL 4
HLTHeat deaths, outbreaks after floods and failed hospitals carry disaster into health; a leptospirosis outbreak followed Melissa.CLI → HLTReported EQL 4
BIOWildfire and flood pulses reshape habitats, and intact ecosystems buffer some hazards; evidence is not consolidated here.BIO ↔ CLIExpert input EQL 2
CLIThe year 2025 was 1.47 °C above pre-industrial in ERA5, and 58% of known human infectious diseases have been aggravated by climate hazards.the hazard driverReported EQL 4
INFDisruption costs low- and middle-income countries USD 391 billion to USD 647 billion a year; 27% of road and rail assets face a hazard.INF ↔ HLTReported EQL 4
FINInsured losses USD 107 billion of USD 220 billion economic losses; 80% to 90% of losses in emerging economies are usually uninsured.FIN ↔ CLIReported EQL 4
DATEM-DAT, IDMC and national loss databases differ in coverage; a common disaster tracking system is being rolled out.DAT → CLIReported EQL 3
AICComputing is used in forecasting and warning; no consolidated evidence on its effect on losses is used here.AIC → GOVExpert input EQL 2
MINReconstruction needs cement, steel and other materials; no consolidated figure is used here.MIN → INFExpert input EQL 2
TRDPorts, shipping lanes and relief logistics are disrupted by storms and quakes; no consolidated figure is used here.INF ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on disaster and resilience, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemdisaster couples every other system2125island cyclone and lifeline failurePARTIAL
GS-01Waterfloods and surge move through river and coastal systems16extreme rainfall and surgePARTIAL
GS-02Energypower outages follow storms and disable clinics6cascading outagesTHIN
GS-03Foodfarmland and livestock lost in Jamaica6harvest and herd lossesPARTIAL
GS-04Healthheat deaths and hospital failure146heat and outbreak after floodsGOOD
GS-05Financeinsured losses USD 107 billion4protection gapGOOD
GS-06Development26 million poverty effect of disasters12poor households’ well-being lossPARTIAL
GS-07Climate1.47 °C above pre-industrial in 202523hazard intensificationGOOD
GS-08Disaster358 recorded disasters in 20251compound eventsGOOD
GS-09InfrastructureUSD 391 billion to 647 billion disruption cost13lifeline failurePARTIAL
GS-10Citiesurban exposure and heat; no consolidated seriesdense exposureTHIN
GS-11Biodiversitywildfire and flood effects on habitatsecosystem buffersTHIN
GS-12Earth observationsatellite flood records17continuity of missionsPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitalalert and communications systems3communication failureTHIN
GS-14PolicySendai Framework targets24national strategy implementationPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong hazard and epidemiology literature1618loss and impact dataPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 25IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 24UNISDR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (adopted March 2015; full text). United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Global Disaster and Resilience Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Disaster Risk and Resilience Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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